Will Page
NationalityBritish
Occupation(s)Economist, author

Will Page is a British economist, author, podcaster and DJ. He is the former Chief Economist at streaming music service Spotify,[1] a Fellow of the Royal Society of the Arts,[2] and a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics and the Edinburgh Futures Institute.

Career

Page graduated with an MSc in Economics at the University of Edinburgh in 2002. His Master's thesis ‘Germany's Mezzogiorno Revisited’ looked at the problems facing East Germany ten years after German Reunification. The paper was published by Deutsche Bank in 2003, and cited in 2005 by Martin Wolf in the Financial Times.

Early career

From 2002–2006 Page worked for the Government Economic Service at the Scottish Executive, working for the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser and Department of Finance.[3] He contributed to the Scottish Executive Economic Discussion Paper Series with a publication on ‘Infrastructure Investment & Economic Growth’.[4] While there he moonlighted as a music journalist for the magazine Straight No Chaser.[5][6]

PRS for Music

From 2006–2012 Page was Chief Economist at PRS for Music, a non-profit collection society representing writers, composers and music publishers in the UK.[7]

In this role he published writing about topics such as the economic strength of the UK music industry[8][9] and Long Tail theory in the music industry.[10] and on the success of Radiohead's In Rainbows album.

In 2008 he co-authored an influential paper in which he challenged Chris Anderson's popular Long Tail theory, showing that the demand for digital music instead followed a log-normal distribution.[11][12] In another paper, In Rainbows, On Torrents written with Eric Garland, Page discussed whether Radiohead's innovative pay-what-you-wish release of its seventh album could compete with illegal free downloads, and observed that it could not, with two million copies of the album shared on file-sharing networks within a month of release; as the Washington Post summed it up, "legal free was trumped by illegal free."[13][14][15]

In May 2010 Page helped save the new music radio station BBC 6 Music.[16]

Spotify

Page joined Spotify as Chief Economist in 2012.[17] In this role he was deeply involved in Spotify's industry outreach and lobbying efforts.[2]

Early in his career at Spotify, he focussed heavily on the impact the Swedish streaming service was having on music piracy. Focussing on The Netherlands he established that "piracy [in the Netherlands] overall is now lower, and artists that engage with Spotify see less piracy."[18] This work led to a study on Spotify's relationship with festivals in the Netherlands[19] and a similar study on piracy in Australia that showed a decrease in downloads from 2012 to 2014.[20]

Page's focus then moved to the transformative impact Spotify was having on the music business generally, and how it exposed concepts like 'catalogue' and 'frontline' as antiquated and not fit for purpose. In a seminal study on the band Imagine Dragons, he demonstrated how artists will often see more streams in the second year of release than the first.[21]

He was an expert witness in the US Copyright Royalty Board's Determination of Rates and Terms for Making and Distributing Phonorecords, often termed "Phonorecords III", regarding mechanical streaming rates.[22] He challenged the claims that Spotify was at fault for cannibalizing revenues from downloads by showing how Canada's iTunes revenues, for example, went into decline without the presence of streaming services like Spotify.[23]

Throughout his tenure at Spotify he championed the global value of copyright by piecing together three sources of revenue that are typically presented independently: the IFPI Global Music Report; CISAC's Global Collections Report; and Music & Copyright value of music publishing.[24][25][26][27] His work included an annual analysis on the global value of copyright.[28]

His work also looked at data on how songs were becoming hits for artists like Lorde as streaming took hold,[29] and drew attention to the value of the UK music industry as a national export.[30]

In 2019 he left Spotify to transition from economist to author, having contracted with Simon and Schuster in the UK and Little Brown & Company in the US to write a consumer-facing book about disruption in various industries.[2] The book, titled Tarzan Economics: Eight Principles for Pivoting Through Disruption, came out in 2021.

London School of Economics

In 2020 Page was made a fellow of the London School of Economics Marshall Institute, and has continued his affiliation with its European Institute from 2021 through the present. With Chris Dalla Riva he wrote the paper "‘Glocalisation’ of Music Streaming within and across Europe" for the LSE. It explored the unexpected rise of local artists on global streaming services.[31][32][33]

Tarzan Economics

In May 2021 his book Tarzan Economics: Eight Principles for Pivoting Through Disruption was published by Simon and Schuster in the UK and by Little, Brown and Company in the US. The book argued that industries need to find ways to work with, not against, disruption,[34] and that the experience of the music industry bears lessons for other sectors.[35] The book has secured five translations to date: into Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese, Korean and German. On Audible, the book is narrated by Angus King.[36]

In his post-Spotify career Page continued to report on the total global value of music copyright[37] and other aspects of the music business, such as the impact of COVID-19,[38] new developments in streaming services,[39] and artists' objections to streaming services' practices.[40]

Podcast

Beginning in May 2021 Page and Richard Kramer have co-hosted "Bubble Trouble," a podcast on the Magnificent Noise network discussing inconvenient truths about financial markets.[41]

Documentary

In 2019, Page was an executive producer of the documentary Black Stars of Highlife which traced the history of Highlife music from its origins in Ghana and through its many fusions, telling a story of musical cross-pollination between the West and West Africa.

DJ

Page has released an annual DJ mix on MixCloud.[42] Carole King provided the introduction for the most recent, titled "Believe in Humanity" after King's song of that name.[43]

Publications

Books

Tarzan Economics: Eight Principles for Pivoting Through Disruption, Little, Brown and Company, 2021[34]

Academic Papers and Studies

2023: "‘Glocalisation’ of Music Streaming within and across Europe" – inspired by British artists having accounted for all of the Top 10 in Britain's end-of-year singles chart in 2022, this study found that in most countries studied, the share of domestic artists and songs in a country's Top 10 had increased: "Contrary to the perverse effects of globalisation where large markets often dominate small, we uncover evidence of local markets growing in their domestic identity."[31][32]

2021: "Twitch's Rockonomics" – a study of how live streaming and live music could coexist after the COVID-19 pandemic[44]

2015–Present: Annual reports on the global value of music copyright,[24] analyses showing, for example, that the total value had increased from $25 billion in 2015[25] to $39.6 billion in 2021,[26] and that the percentage of the total from streaming rose from 22% in 2016 to 54% in 2020.[27]

2016–2019: Discussion papers for Society of Economics Research on Copyright Issues:

  • 2019: "'User-centric' revisited: The unintended consequences of royalty distribution"[45]
  • 2018: "Money in, money out: Lessons from CMOs in allocating and distributing licensing revenue"[46]
  • 2017: "The causes and consequences of allocating revenue between mechanical and performing rights"[47]
  • 2016: "Can two societies ever be better than one?"[48]

2012–2019: Various publications for Spotify on subjects such as online privacy, online advertising, and social media, such as "Does the music industry's definition of 'catalogue' need an upgrade?"[49]

For PRS 2006–2012:

  • A series of analyses on the music industry for PRS' Economic Insight[50] such as "A songwriter’s perspective on 6 Music"[16]

Journalism

Financial Times articles including:

  • "Roar of the live music crowd drowns out stadium income from sport"[51]
  • "Vinyl, the music format that came back from the dead"[52]
  • "Everyone’s a winner in Spotify’s face-off with Neil Young"[53]
  • "The music industry makes more money but has more mouths to feed"[54]
  • "Taylor Swift, Bob Dylan and the future of streaming"[55]

The Economist

  • "Spotify, Joe Rogan and the Wild West of online audio"[56]
  • "And the winner is...who cares?"[57]

Numerous articles for Billboard including:

  • "Examining COVID-19’s Impact on Britain’s Live and Recorded Music Industries"[38]
  • "Is The Music Copyright Business Worth More Than Ever?"[58]

References

  1. ↑ Leo Sidran (24 January 2023), Former Spotify executive Will Page: The internet can't scale intimacy, WBGO, retrieved 19 May 2023
  2. 1 2 3 Tim Ingham (19 July 2019). "SPOTIFY'S CHIEF ECONOMIST, WILL PAGE, IS LEAVING THE COMPANY". Music Business Worldwide. Retrieved 19 May 2023.
  3. ↑ Jason Joven (6 July 2020). "Digital Disruption and Music Economics With Former Spotify Chief Economist Will Page". Chartmetric. Retrieved 19 May 2023.
  4. ↑ Will Page (18 December 2005), "Infrastructure Investment & Economic Growth" (PDF), Scottish Executive, retrieved 19 May 2023
  5. ↑ Eric J. Lawrence (22 August 2018). "Straight No Chaser magazine profile on KCRW!". KCRW. Retrieved 19 May 2023.
  6. ↑ Will Page (1 April 2007). "Black Lily Film + Music Festival May 4-6 2007" (PDF). Retrieved 23 May 2023. {{cite magazine}}: Cite magazine requires |magazine= (help)
  7. ↑ Joe Sparrow (4 August 2022), Will Page analyses lockdown's effect on UK music and predicts bounce-back, MusicAlly, retrieved 19 May 2023
  8. ↑ "Interview With Will Page, Music Industry Economist". Techdirt. April 29, 2010.
  9. ↑ Page, Will (August 2011). "Adding Up The Music Industry 2010". PRS for Music Economic Insight. 23.
  10. ↑ Report Challenges Long Tail Theory on P2P Networks, Wired, 14 May 2009, retrieved 19 May 2023
  11. ↑ Patrick Foster (7 November 2008). "Long Tail theory contradicted as study reveals 10m digital music tracks unsold: Digital sales figures dent niche market theory". Retrieved 23 May 2023..
  12. ↑ Andrew Orlowski (August 1, 2008), "Chopping the Long Tail down to size", The Register
  13. ↑ Robert Andrews (August 1, 2008), "Radiohead Downloaders Preferred Illegal P2P To Legal Free", Washington Post
  14. ↑ Eric Garland (16 November 2009), The 'In Rainbows' Experiment: Did It Work?, retrieved 23 May 2023
  15. ↑ Buskirk, Eliot Van (2008-07-31). "New In Rainbows Numbers Offer Lessons for Music Industry". Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. Retrieved 2019-07-21.
  16. 1 2 Will Page (20 May 2010), A songwriter's perspective on 6 Music, retrieved 23 May 2023
  17. ↑ Glenn Peoples (9 October 2012), Spotify Nabs Will Page, Former PRS for Music Chief Economist, Billboard, retrieved 19 May 2023
  18. ↑ Will Page, Adventures in the Netherlands: Spotify, Piracy and the new Dutch experience (PDF), Spotify, retrieved 7 June 2023
  19. ↑ Will Page, Adventures in the Lowlands: Best practice for Spotify, social media and festivals (PDF), Spotify, retrieved 7 June 2023
  20. ↑ Ernesto Van der Sar (10 September 2014), Spotify: Aussie Music Piracy Down 20% The Year After Our Launch, Torrentfreak, retrieved 7 June 2023
  21. ↑ "Does the music industry's definition of 'catalogue' need an upgrade?". Music Business Worldwide. 2017-12-05. Retrieved 2019-07-21.
  22. ↑ INTRODUCTORY MEMORANDUM TO THE WRITTEN DIRECT STATEMENT OF SPOTIFY USA INC. (PDF), CRB, retrieved 19 May 2023
  23. ↑ DETERMINATION OF RATES AND TERMS FOR MAKING AND DISTRIBUTING PHONORECORDS (PHONORECORDS III): WRITTEN REBUTTAL TESTIMONY OF WILL PAGE (PDF), CRB, retrieved 7 June 2023
  24. 1 2 THE GLOBAL VALUE OF MUSIC COPYRIGHT TOPPED $28BN IN 2017, Music Business Worldwide, 9 April 2019, retrieved 23 May 2023
  25. 1 2 $25 BILLION: THE BEST NUMBER TO HAPPEN TO THE GLOBAL MUSIC BUSINESS IN A VERY LONG TIME., Music Business Worldwide, 10 December 2015, retrieved 23 May 2023
  26. 1 2 Emmanuel Legrand (6 November 2022), Will Page report values music copyright at $39.6 billion in 2021, up 18% year-on-year, Creative Industries News, retrieved 23 May 2023
  27. 1 2 Music Copyright Value Hit $32.5B in 2020, With Streaming Taking Its Biggest Slice Yet, Billboard, 18 November 2021, retrieved 23 May 2023
  28. ↑ "The global value of music copyright topped $28bn in 2017". Music Business Worldwide. 2019-04-09. Retrieved 2019-07-21.
  29. ↑ Tom Cheredar (2013-08-21). "Spotify shares new data on how songs are becoming hits in the digital age". VentureBeat. Retrieved 2019-07-21.
  30. ↑ Moore, Matthew (2019-01-11). "Spotify data shows the world loves British pop". The Times. ISSN 0140-0460. Retrieved 2019-07-21.
  31. 1 2 Janan Ganesh (2 June 2023), Music markets are 'glocalising' — and the English-speaking world better get used to it, Financial Times, retrieved 23 May 2023
  32. 1 2 Will Page; Chris Dalla Riva (1 May 2023), 'Glocalisation' of Music Streaming within and across Europe (PDF), The London School of Economics and Political Science, retrieved 8 June 2023
  33. ↑ Lucas Shaw (11 June 2023), The Next Phase of the Global Streaming Wars, Bloomberg, retrieved 16 June 2023
  34. 1 2 Amy X. Wang (5 May 2021), An Ex-Spotify Exec Breaks Down Modern Music's 'Tarzan Economics', Rolling Stone, retrieved 19 May 2023
  35. ↑ Sebastian Scotney (31 March 2021), Will Page: Tarzan Economics - a 'rockonomist' writes, The Arts Desk, retrieved 19 May 2023
  36. ↑ Tarzan Economics, Audible, retrieved 21 June 2023
  37. ↑ Peoples, Glenn (3 November 2022). "Global Music Copyright Revenue Grew 18% in 2021". Billboard. ISSN 0140-0460. Retrieved 19 May 2023.
  38. 1 2 Will Page (24 June 2020), Examining COVID-19's Impact on Britain's Live and Recorded Music Industries, Billboard, retrieved 19 May 2023
  39. ↑ James Hall (13 March 2023), Can Apple really start a classical-music revolution?, The Telegraph, retrieved 19 May 2023
  40. ↑ Will Page (4 February 2022), Everyone's a winner in Spotify's face-off with Neil Young, Financial Times, retrieved 19 May 2023
  41. ↑ Brad Hill (3 June 2021), Magnificent Noise launches first self-distro'd podcast, "Bubble Trouble" with Will Page, Kurt Hanson's Radio & Internet News, retrieved 23 May 2023
  42. ↑ Ashley Norris (24 April 2022), Former Spotify Chief Economist, Will Page, on lessons learned from the digital transformation of the music industry, FIPP, retrieved 24 May 2023
  43. ↑ Will Page, 2023 Believe in Humanity, Mixcloud, retrieved 8 June 2023
  44. ↑ Tim McArtney (30 June 2021), Can musicians make a living from Twitch? A new report suggests they can, Happy, retrieved 23 May 2023
  45. ↑ 'User-centric' revisited: The unintended consequences of royalty distribution (PDF), Society of Economics Research on Copyright Issues Music & Copyright Newsletter, 17 October 2016, retrieved 2 June 2023
  46. ↑ Simon Dyson (29 August 2018), Money in, money out: Lessons from CMOs in allocating and distributing licensing revenue (PDF), Society of Economics Research on Copyright Issues Music & Copyright Newsletter, retrieved 24 May 2023
  47. ↑ Simon Dyson (17 October 2017), The causes and consequences of allocating revenue between mechanical and performing rights (PDF), Society of Economics Research on Copyright Issues Music & Copyright Newsletter, retrieved 2 June 2023
  48. ↑ Simon Dyson (17 October 2016), Can two societies ever be better than one? (PDF), Society of Economics Research on Copyright Issues Music & Copyright Newsletter, retrieved 2 June 2023
  49. ↑ Will Page (5 December 2017), Does the music industry's definition of 'catalogue' need an upgrade?, Music Business Worldwide, retrieved 24 May 2023
  50. ↑ Will Page and Chris Carey (4 August 2010), Adding up the UK music industry 2010, Economic Insight, retrieved 23 May 2023
  51. ↑ Will Page (12 August 2022), Roar of the live music crowd drowns out stadium income from sport, Financial Times, retrieved 24 May 2023
  52. ↑ Will Page (28 April 2022), Vinyl, the music format that came back from the dead, Financial Times, retrieved 24 May 2023
  53. ↑ Will Page (4 February 2022), Everyone's a winner in Spotify's face-off with Neil Young, Financial Times, retrieved 24 May 2023
  54. ↑ Will Page (19 February 2021), The music industry makes more money but has more mouths to feed, Financial Times, retrieved 24 May 2023
  55. ↑ Will Page (17 December 2021), Taylor Swift, Bob Dylan and the future of streaming, Financial Times, retrieved 24 May 2023
  56. ↑ Will Page (2 February 2022), Spotify, Joe Rogan and the Wild West of online audio (PDF), The Economist, retrieved 24 May 2023
  57. ↑ Will Page (2 February 2022), And the winner is...who cares? (PDF), The Economist, retrieved 24 May 2023
  58. ↑ Will Page (28 February 2020), Is The Music Copyright Business Worth More Than Ever?, Billboard, retrieved 23 May 2023
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