Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences.[1][2] It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.[1][3]

Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning.[4][5]

Definitions

YearDefinition
2004Technology futures analysis is "any process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. ... [TFA] encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry."[6]
2013Future-oriented technology analysis is "an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools - (technology) foresight, forecasting and technology assessment - and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations."[7]

Methods

Methods and their families[8]
MethodFamily
Agent based modelingModeling and simulation
Analytical hierarchy processValuing/decision/economic
BackcastingDescriptive and matrices
BibliometricsMonitoring and intelligence, Statistics
BrainstormingCreativity
Cross impact analysisModeling and simulation, Statistics
DelphiExpert Opinion
Multicriteria decision analysesValuing/decision/economic
Relevance treeDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Risk analysisDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
RoadmappingDescriptive and matrices
ScenariosScenarios
Social impact assessmentDescriptive and matrices
Stakeholder analysisDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Sustainability analysisDescriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
System dynamicsModeling and simulation
Technology assessmentDescriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
TRIZCreativity

References

  1. 1 2 Filip, F. G.; Dragomirescu, H.; Predescu, R.; Ilie, R. (2004). "IT tools for foresight studies". Studies in Informatics and Control (13): 161-168.
  2. ↑ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 18904868.
  3. ↑ Sánchez-Torres, J. M.; Miles, I. (16 December 2017). "The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: a systematic review". European Journal of Futures Research. 5 (1): 15. doi:10.1007/s40309-017-0131-7. ISSN 2195-2248. S2CID 9744177.
  4. ↑ Eerola, A.; Miles, I. (1 April 2011). "Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective". Futures. 43 (3): 265–278. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.005. ISSN 0016-3287.
  5. ↑ Tagiew, Rustam; Witzler, Sebastian; Portier, Martin (14 July 2022). "Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility". Social Science Research Network. SSRN 4151745. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  6. ↑ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 18904868.
  7. ↑ Cagnin, Cristiano; Havas, Attila; Saritas, Ozcan (1 March 2013). "Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 80 (3): 379–385. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.001. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 60530892.
  8. ↑ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. S2CID 18904868.
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