Drone warfare is a form of aerial warfare using unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) or weaponized commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). The United States, United Kingdom, Israel, China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, India, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and Poland[1][2][3] are known to have manufactured operational UCAVs as of 2019.[4]

Drone attacks can be conducted by commercial UCAVs dropping bombs, firing a missile, or crashing into a target.[5] Since the turn of the century, most drone strikes have been carried out by the US military in such countries as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen and Libya using air-to-surface missiles,[6] but drone warfare has increasingly been deployed by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Azerbaijan and by militant groups such as the Houthis.[7] Drone strikes are used for assassinations by several countries.[8][9]

United States

A Predator drone firing a Hellfire missile

Estimates for the total people killed in U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan, range from 2,000 to 3,500 militants killed and 158–965 civilians killed.[10][11] 81 insurgent leaders in Pakistan have been killed.[10] Drone strikes in Yemen are estimated to have killed 846–1,758 militants and 116–225 civilians.[12][13] 57 Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula leaders are confirmed to have been killed.[14]

In August 2018, Al Jazeera reported that a Saudi Arabian-led coalition combating Houthi rebels in Yemen had secured secret deals with al-Qaeda in Yemen and recruited hundreds of that group's fighters: "... Key figures in the deal-making said the United States was aware of the arrangements and held off on drone attacks against the armed group, which was created by Osama bin Laden in 1988."[15][16][17]

After US president Donald Trump had increased drone strikes by over 400%, and limited civilian oversight,[18][19][20] his successor Joe Biden reversed course. Under Biden, drone strikes reportedly hit a 20-year low and were heavily limited.[21][22][23][24] However, a Biden administration drone strike in Kabul, Afghanistan in August 2021 killed 10 civilians, including seven children.[25] Later, a drone strike killed Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.[26]

Effects

Scholarly opinions are mixed regarding the efficacy of drone strikes. Some studies support that decapitation strikes to kill a terrorist or insurgent group's leadership limit the capabilities of these groups in the future, while other studies refute this. Drone strikes are successful at suppressing militant behavior, though this response is in anticipation of a drone strike rather than as a result of one. Data from the US and Pakistan's joint counter-terrorism efforts show that militants cease communication and attack planning to avoid detection and targeting.[27]

Proponents of drone strikes assert that drone strikes are largely effective in targeting specific combatants.[28] Some scholars argue that drone strikes reduce the amount of civilian casualties and territorial damage when compared to other types of military force like large bombs.[28] Military alternatives to drone strikes such as raids and interrogations can be extremely risky, time-consuming, and potentially ineffective. Relying on drone strikes does not come without risks as U.S. drone usage sets an international precedent on extraterritorial and extrajudicial killings.[28]

Islamic State drone strikes

Small drones and quadcopters have been used for strikes by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. A group of twelve or more have been piloted by specially trained pilots to drop munitions onto enemy forces. They have been able to evade ground defense forces.[29]

During the battle for Mosul, the Islamic State was able to kill or wound dozens of Iraqi soldiers by dropping light explosives or 40-millimeter grenades from numerous drones attacking at the same time. Drone strikes were also used to destroy military supplies. Drone footage released by the Islamic State showed bombs being dropped on an ammunitions facility located in Deir ez-Zor, Syria, an area of contested control between the Islamic State and the Syrian government at the time.[30]

In 2017, FBI Director Christopher Wray stated at a Senate hearing that "We do know that terrorist organizations have an interest in using drones ... We have seen that overseas already with some frequency. I think that the expectation is that it is coming here, imminently."[29]

Drone expert Brett Velicovich discussed the dangers of the Islamic State utilizing off the shelf drones to attack civilian targets, claiming in an interview with Fox News that it was only a matter of time before ISIS extremists use of drones to strike civilian targets would become more prevalent and sophisticated.[31]

The overall success rate for drone strikes used by the Islamic State is unclear. The Islamic State may have used drones as a way to gather footage for propaganda purposes, rather than for their military value.[32]

Proliferation in the 2020s

Weaponizing of DJI Phantom commercial videography UAVs

On 6 January 2018, Russian forces thwarted a drone (UAV) swarm attack on the Khmeimim Air Base, the first of this kind in the history of warfare.[33]

In 2020, a Turkish-made UAV loaded with explosives detected and attacked Haftar's forces in Libya with artificial intelligence and without command, according to a report from the UN Security Council's Panel of Experts on Libya published in March 2021. It was considered the first attack carried out by an AI UAV.[34][35][36]

The Economist has cited Azerbaijan's highly effective use of drones in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and Turkey's use of drones in the Syrian Civil War as indicating the future of warfare. Noting that it had previously been assumed that drones would not play a major role in conflicts between nations due to their vulnerability to anti-aircraft fire, it suggested that while this might be true for major powers with air defences, it was less true for minor powers. It noted Azerbaijani tactics and Turkey's use of drones as indicating a "new, more affordable type of air power". It also noted that the ability of drones to record their kills enabled a highly effective Azerbaijani propaganda campaign.[7]

On 13 October 2022, a Ukrainian MiG-29 became the first manned plane to go down to a drone during combat. The pilot is claimed to have destroyed a Shahed-136 drone with his cannon. The blast is believed to have brought the plane down and hospitalised the pilot.[37]

Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, approximately 30 companies in Ukraine have emerged to mass-produce drones for the war effort. The Ukraine government Ministry of Digital Transformation initiated the "Army of Drones" project, and is attempting to purchase up to 200,000 drones in 2023, aiming to deploy relatively cheap drones against large advantages Russia has had in military equipment. In 2023, they have also sponsored several competitions where the "dozens of drone developers that have sprung up all over Ukraine" are invited to make simulated attacks on ground targets, or chase fixed-wing drones, or even participate in drone dogfight competitions.[38]

Commercial UCAVs

Commercial UCAVs may be equipped with such weapons as guided bombs, cluster bombs, incendiary devices, air-to-surface missiles, air-to-air missiles, anti-tank guided missiles or other types of precision-guided munitions, autocannons and machine guns.[39] Drone attacks can be conducted by commercial UCAVs dropping bombs, firing a missile, or crashing into a target.[5] Commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can be weaponized by being loaded with dangerous explosives and then crashed into vulnerable targets or detonated above them. They can conduct aerial bombing by dropping hand grenades, mortar shell or other improvised explosive munitions directly above targets. Payloads could include explosives, shrapnel, chemical, radiological or biological hazards. Multiple drones may attack simultaneously in a drone swarm.[33] Drones have been used extensively by both sides for recon and artillery spotting in the Russo-Ukraine War.[40]

Anti-UAV systems are being developed by states to counter the threat of drone strikes.[41] This is, however, proving difficult. According to James Rogers, an academic who studies drone warfare, "There is a big debate out there at the moment about what the best way is to counter these small UAVs, whether they are used by hobbyists causing a bit of a nuisance or in a more sinister manner by a terrorist actor."[42]

Azerbaijan drone warfare

Turkish made Bayraktar TB2 at Baku Victory Parade of 2020, Azerbaijan

During the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, UCAVs have been used extensively by the Azerbaijani Army against the Armenian Army.[43] These UCAVs included Israeli IAI Harops and Turkish Bayraktar TB2s.[44] As the Bayraktar TB2 uses Canadian optics and laser targeting systems, in October 2020 Canada suspended export of its military drone technology to Turkey after allegations that the technology had been used to collect intelligence and direct artillery and missile fire at military positions. After the incident, Aselsan stated that it would begin the serial production and integration of the CATS system to replace the Canadian MX15B.[45]

Russian invasion of Ukraine

During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, both sides have utilised drones in combat and for reconnaissance, and drones have played an important role in offensives. Ukrainian forces have made extensive use of the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone throughout the conflict in strikes against Russian forces. Russian forces meanwhile launched waves of Iranian HESA Shahed 136 drones during the October 2022 missile strikes on Ukraine.[46] The main roles of drones in the war, however, are in reconnaissance and artillery spotting. Russian sources claimed to have used a "Stupor anti-drone rifle" to jam the radio controls of Ukrainian drones.[47]

On October 13, 2022, the first recorded instance of an unarmed drone-on-drone combat encounter occurred above the Donetsk region of Ukraine. A Ukrainian DJI Mavic quadcopter was recorded ramming a Russian drone of the same model, resulting in the latter crashing towards the surface below.[48][49][50] Another instance of this aerial ramming tactic occurred on November 24, 2022, this time with the Russian DJI Mavic being recorded plummeting towards the ground after a collision with a Ukrainian drone.[51][52] On May 9, 2023, a Russian conscript surrendered to (or rather via) a Ukrainian drone.[53] The average HESA Shahed 136 drone is worth about $20,000. An IRIS-T missile is worth about $430,000 each in comparison. From 13 September until 17 October, open source information suggests that Ukraine has had to spend $28.14 million on defending against these drones.[54][55]

Since at least September 2022, Ukraine has used black naval drones that used Starlink for connection to carry attacks on the Black Sea fleet at the Sevastopol Naval base.[56][57][58][59] The naval drones were at first assumed to be for reconnaissance, but appear to carry munitions and act as a bomb.[60] With experts noting that the sensors on the front of the naval drone could be used as a laser range finder to help in targeting.[60] In late October 2022, seven of these drones were used to mount a successful drone attack on the Sevastopol Naval base.[56][61]

In September 2023 Ukrainian troops were reported as using cardboard drones with GoPro cameras for aerial reconnaissance.[62]

2023 Gaza War

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an invasion of southern Israel, using commercial drones to bomb Israeli guard towers before breaching the border wall. Videos of Israeli troops and a Merkava IV tank being taken out by drones surfaced on the internet.[63][64] Israeli drone snipers reportedly shot at doctors and patients during the Al-Shifa Hospital siege.[65]….

Notable drone strikes

Strikes using small and loitering UAVs

Notable deaths from drone strikes

See also

References

  1. ↑ Sabak, Juliusz (18 May 2017). "AS 2017: Warmate UAV with Ukrainian Warheads". Defence24.com. Archived from the original on 28 January 2019. Retrieved 23 March 2019.
  2. ↑ Baykar Technologies (17 December 2015). 17 Aralık 2015—Tarihi Atış Testinden Kesitler (YouTube). Retrieved 18 November 2018.
  3. ↑ Borger, Julian (28 March 2022). "The drone operators who halted Russian convoy headed for Kyiv". The Guardian. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  4. ↑ "Milli İHA'ya yerli füze takıldı!". Haber7. 18 December 2015. Retrieved 18 November 2018.
  5. 1 2 Agence France-Presse (14 March 2017). "US military deploys attack drones to South Korea". Defence Talk. Retrieved 2 October 2017.
  6. ↑ Haltiwanger, John (18 December 2018). "America at war: The countries where the US took or gave fire in 2018". Business Insider. Insider Inc. Retrieved 23 March 2019.
  7. 1 2 "The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict hints at the future of war". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 9 October 2020.
  8. ↑ "The global targeted killings bandwagon: who's next after France?". theconversation.com. 8 February 2017. Retrieved 23 March 2019.
  9. ↑ Byman, Daniel L. (17 June 2013). "Why Drones Work: The Case for Washington's Weapon of Choice". Brookings.edu. Retrieved 23 March 2019.
  10. 1 2 "The Bureau's complete data sets on drone strikes in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia". Bureau of Investigative Journalism. 6 June 2015. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  11. ↑ "Drone Strikes: Pakistan". New America. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  12. ↑ "Drone Strikes: Yemen". Washington, DC, US: New America. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  13. ↑ "Drone War: Yemen". The Bureau of Investigative Journalism. Archived from the original on 25 March 2020. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  14. ↑ "Yemen Leaders Killed". Washington, DC, US: New America. Retrieved 20 April 2018.
  15. ↑ "Report: Saudi-UAE coalition 'cut deals' with al-Qaeda in Yemen". Al-Jazeera. 6 August 2018. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  16. ↑ "US allies, Al Qaeda battle rebels in Yemen". Fox News. Associated Press. 7 August 2018. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  17. ↑ Michael, Maggie; Wilson, Trish; Keath, Lee (6 August 2018). "Allies cut deals with al Qaeda in Yemen to serve larger fight with Iran". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  18. ↑ S. E. Cupp (8 May 2019). "Under Donald Trump, drone strikes far exceed Obama's numbers". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved 8 December 2021.
  19. ↑ "Trump revokes Obama rule on reporting drone strike deaths". BBC. 7 March 2019. Retrieved 8 December 2021.
  20. ↑ Carey Wedler (12 March 2017). "U.S. Drone Strikes Have Gone Up 432% Since Trump Took Office". World Beyond War. Retrieved 8 December 2021.
  21. ↑ Davis, Charles (23 December 2021). "US military strikes fell 54% in Biden's first year compared to Trump's last, monitoring group says". Business Insider. Retrieved 22 January 2022.
  22. ↑ Michael Hirsh (1 July 2021). "Why U.S. Drone Strikes Are at an All-Time Low". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 8 December 2021.
  23. ↑ Ryan Cooper (1 December 2021). "Biden nearly ended the drone war, and nobody noticed". The Week. Retrieved 8 December 2021.
  24. ↑ "Biden Secretly Limits Counterterrorism Drone Strikes Away From War Zones". The New York Times. 3 March 2021. Retrieved 8 December 2021.
  25. ↑ Schmitt, Eric (13 December 2021). "No U.S. Troops Will Be Punished for Deadly Kabul Strike, Pentagon Chief Decides". The New York Times. Retrieved 13 December 2021.
  26. ↑ Baker, Peter; Cooper, Helene; Barnes, Julian E.; Schmitt, Eric (1 August 2022). "Live Updates: U.S. Drone Strike in Kabul Kills Top Qaeda Leader". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2 August 2022.
  27. ↑ Horowitz, Michael C. (2020). "Do Emerging Military Technologies Matter for International Politics?". Annual Review of Political Science. 23: 385–400. doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050718-032725.
  28. 1 2 3 Byman, Daniel L. (17 June 2013). "Why Drones Work: The Case for Washington's Weapon of Choice". Brookings. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  29. 1 2 Hennigan, W.J. (28 September 2017). "Islamic State's deadly drone operation is faltering, but U.S. commanders see broader danger ahead". L.A. Times. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  30. ↑ "Footage shows Islamic State drone blowing up stadium ammo dump". ABC News. 25 October 2017. Retrieved 22 October 2022.
  31. ↑ Kopp, Jason (7 July 2017). "Homeland Security concerned about commercial drones being used for 'nefarious purposes'". Fox News. Retrieved 16 December 2020.
  32. ↑ Archambault, Emil; Veilleux-Lepage, Yannick (1 July 2020). "Drone imagery in Islamic State propaganda: flying like a state". International Affairs.
  33. 1 2 "Syria war: Russia thwarts drone attack on Khmeimim airbase". BBC. 7 January 2018.
  34. ↑ Froelich, Paula (29 May 2021). "Killer drone 'hunted down a human target' without being told to". Fox News. Retrieved 31 May 2021.
  35. ↑ "BM raporu: Dünyada ilk otonom drone saldırısını Türk yapımı İHA gerçekleştirdi". The Independent (in Turkish). 31 May 2021. Retrieved 31 May 2021.
  36. ↑ Zitser, Joshua (30 May 2021). "A rogue killer drone 'hunted down' a human target without being instructed to, UN report says". Business Insider. Retrieved 31 May 2021.
  37. ↑ Kadam, Tanmay (14 October 2022). "Ukraine Confirms 1st Known Case Of Fighter Jet Going Down To A Kamikaze Drone; EurAsian Times' Assessment Hits Bulls Eye!". Eurasian Times. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  38. ↑ "Inside Ukraine's secretive drone program". CNN News. 3 June 2023. Retrieved 3 June 2023.
  39. ↑ Hambling, David (12 December 2019). "Turkey is getting military drones armed with machine guns". New Scientist. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  40. ↑ "Ukraine's Drone Spotters on Front Lines Wage New Kind of War". The Wall Street Journal. 7 August 2022.
  41. ↑ Rogers, James (4 October 2019). "The dark side of our drone future". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  42. ↑ Loeb, Josh (6 March 2017). "Anti-drone technology to be test flown on UK base amid terror fears". Engineering and Technology. The Institution of Engineering and Technology. Retrieved 9 May 2017.
  43. ↑ Bulos, Nabih; Yam, Marcus (15 October 2020). "A new weapon complicates an old war in Nagorno-Karabakh". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  44. ↑ Roblin, Sébastien (14 October 2020). "Opinion | How an explosion of cheap armed drones is changing the nature of warfare". NBC News. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  45. ↑ Sevunts, Levon. "Canada suspends exports of military drone technology to Turkey". CBC News. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  46. ↑ "How are 'kamikaze' drones being used by Russia and Ukraine?". BBC News. 17 October 2022. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  47. ↑ "Russian army confirms use of Stupor anti-drone rifle in Ukraine | Defense News July 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year". www.armyrecognition.com. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  48. ↑ Niles, Russ (20 October 2022). "Video Shows Drone-On-Drone Battle". AVweb. Retrieved 13 December 2022.
  49. ↑ Hambling, David. "Ukraine Wins First Drone Vs. Drone Dogfight Against Russia, Opening A New Era Of Warfare (Updated)". Forbes. Retrieved 13 December 2022.
  50. ↑ "Video captures dogfight between two Mavic quadcopter drones in Ukraine - AeroTime". 18 October 2022. Retrieved 13 December 2022.
  51. ↑ McFadden, Christopher (25 November 2022). "Unmanned dogfight: Two drones have allegedly engaged in midair combat over Ukraine". interestingengineering.com. Retrieved 13 December 2022.
  52. ↑ Malyasov, Dylan. "Russian 'Z' drone shot down by Ukrainian unmanned aircraft in dogfight – Defence Blog". defence-blog.com. Retrieved 13 December 2022.
  53. ↑ Kalin, Stephen; Coles, Isabel (14 June 2023). "The Russian Soldier Who Surrendered to a Ukrainian Drone". Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 23 June 2023.
  54. ↑ Sakshi Tiwari (20 October 2022). "1st Evidence! Germany's 'Much-Touted' IRIS-T Defense System Used By Ukraine 'Clashes' With Russian Missile". EurAsian Times. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
  55. ↑ Daniel Boffey (19 October 2022). "Financial toll on Ukraine of downing drones 'vastly exceeds Russian costs'". The Guardian. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
  56. 1 2 "How Elon Musk's satellites have saved Ukraine and changed warfare". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 6 June 2023.
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  58. ↑ Marquardt, Alex (13 October 2022). "Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab | CNN Politics". CNN.
  59. ↑ Borger, Julian (7 September 2023). "Elon Musk ordered Starlink to be turned off during Ukraine offensive, book says". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 9 September 2023.
  60. 1 2 Gault, Matthew (26 September 2022). "Mysterious Sea Drone Surfaces in Crimea". Vice. Retrieved 10 September 2023.
  61. ↑ Ozberk, Tayfun (23 August 2023). "Ukraine's new underwater drone Marichka breaks cover". Naval News. Retrieved 12 September 2023.
  62. ↑ Eckstein, Megan (13 September 2023). "Cardboard drone vendor retools software based on Ukraine war hacks". Defense News. Retrieved 3 December 2023.
  63. ↑ Achom, Debanish (11 October 2023). "In Israel-Gaza War, Hamas' Off-The-Shelf Drones Destroy Million Dollar Hardware". NDTV. Retrieved 2 November 2023.
  64. ↑ Smith, Nicola (2 November 2023). "Hamas using Ukraine war tactics to ambush Israeli soldiers in Gaza". The Telegraph. Retrieved 2 November 2023.
  65. ↑ Sebouai, Lilia; Nuki, Paul; Rothwell, James. "'Drone snipers' firing at targets around Gaza hospitals, says trapped British doctor". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 18 November 2023.
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