Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China's position has been ambivalent. On one hand, it has blamed enlargement of NATO, which Russia has stated as a reason for starting the war. On the other hand, it has stressed respect for Ukraine's territorial integrity.[1][2] China has not condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has abstained during United Nations votes on the war in Ukraine.[3]

Although the Government of China has objected to economic sanctions against Russia,[4][5] its companies have largely complied with them.[1][3] Drones made by Chinese manufacturers are used by both sides in the conflict. Some Chinese companies are under sanctions from the U.S. as sources of weaponry components and dual-use technology exported to Russia.[6][7][8][9] Chinese state media outlets and netizens have often taken pro-Russia stances and repeated Russian rhetoric, including disinformation.[10][11][12]

In May 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that "China has chosen the policy of staying away. At the moment, Ukraine is satisfied with this policy."[13] In August 2022, Zelenskyy stated that China has the economic leverage to pressure Putin to end the war.[14]

China has attempted to mediate between Russia and Ukraine but has faced criticism of its proposals.[15]

Chinese government

On 2 March 2022, The New York Times published an article citing a Western intelligence report which said that the Chinese government had asked the Russian government to delay the invasion until after the 2022 Winter Olympics.[16] The Chinese government denied the allegations, stating that the goal of "this kind of rhetoric is to divert attention and shift blame, which is utterly despicable."[17]

The Chinese government did not inform its citizens to take refuge until 25 February 2022, after the bombing started, and the Chinese embassy in Ukraine advised Chinese citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. On 7 March 2022, the Chinese government stated that it had evacuated most Chinese citizens trapped on the battlefield. The Chinese who fled Ukraine criticized the poor management.[18]

On 15 March 2022, Chinese Ambassador to the United States Qin Gang wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post stating that "conflict between Russia and Ukraine does no good for China," that "the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine, must be respected; the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously," and that "threats against Chinese entities and businesses, as uttered by some U.S. officials, are unacceptable."[19]

On 29 April 2022, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian called China–Russia relations a "new model of international relations" that involved "not causing confrontations or targeting other nations", rising above "the model of military and political alliance in the Cold War era."[20]

Quoting the Russian parliament, The New York Times reported that in September 2022 Li Zhanshu, the third highest-ranking Politburo Standing Committee member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and a top advisor to CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, blamed NATO for expanding next to Russia and told a group of Russian legislators that "we fully understand the necessity of all the measures taken by Russia" and that it was placed in an "impossible situation" on the Ukrainian issue.[21] The Wall Street Journal reported that to advance its own interests, Russia has repeatedly leaked information without Chinese knowledge or ahead of China's announcements and decisions. According to people close to China's top decision-makers, had they known about Russia's intention to leak Li's comments, his "choice of words would have been more careful to prevent China from being seen as an accomplice to Russia".[22]

In November 2022, during the 2022 G20 Bali summit, China objected to calling the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine a "war".[23] In the same month, Russia's ambassador to Beijing announced that Xi Jinping would be visiting Moscow, reportedly before China was ready for an announcement. The Wall Street Journal quoted people close to the Chinese leadership saying that the "Chinese side hadn't even made a decision yet".[22]

According to U.S. intercepts of Russian intelligence from the 2022–2023 Pentagon document leaks, Russia believed that China had approved sending "lethal aid" disguised as civilian items. U.S. officials said that they have not yet seen evidence but have repeatedly warned China against doing so.[24]

Meetings with foreign leaders

On 1 March 2022, the Ukrainian and Chinese foreign ministers, Dmytro Kuleba and Wang Yi, held their first phone call since the beginning of the invasion. Chinese media reported that Wang told Kuleba that he was "extremely concerned" about the risk to civilians and that it was necessary to "ease the situation as much as possible to prevent the conflict from escalating." Kuleba was reported to have said that Ukraine "looks forward to China playing a mediation role in achieving a ceasefire."[25]

On 9 March 2022, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping held a video meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in which he stated that China was "pained to see the flames of war reignited in Europe" and called for the three countries to promote peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.[26] Later that month, Xi Jinping and American President Joe Biden held a two-hour long meeting over video in which the conflict in Ukraine featured significantly. The American White House told the press after the call that Biden had warned Xi of "consequences if China provides material support to Russia."[27]

Putin welcomes Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Moscow, 21 March 2023

On 20–22 March 2023, Xi Jinping visited Russia and met with Vladimir Putin, both in an official and unofficial capacity.[28][29]

On 26 April 2023, Xi Jinping made an hour-long call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.[30] Zelenskyy described the call as "long and meaningful" and stressed "a just and sustainable peace for Ukraine."[30]

United Nations votes

On 25 February 2022, China abstained from a United Nations Security Council vote denouncing the invasion.[31]

On 2 March 2022, China joined 35 countries in abstaining from a United Nations General Assembly resolution which condemned Russia's aggression and demanded Russia's “immediate, thorough, and unconditional” withdrawal of troops from Ukraine.[32]

Peace proposal

Chinese peace envoy Li Hui meets with Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba in Kyiv (17 May 2023)

On 24 February 2023, China issued a twelve-point peace plan outline, calling for a cease fire and peace talks.[33] The same day, Zelenskyy indicated he was willing to consider aspects of the proposal,[34] while Russia's foreign ministry stated that it welcomed the Chinese proposal.[35] Zelenskyy stated that he planned to meet Xi Jinping because it would be useful to both countries and global security.[34] Vladimir Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said "we paid a lot of attention to our Chinese friends' plan", but new "territorial realities could not be ignored" as these realities became "an internal factor" (for Russia). Peskov then rejected the Chinese peace proposal, saying that "for now, we don't see any of the conditions that are needed to bring this whole story towards peace."[36] U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken questioned China's peace proposal,[37] saying "the world should not be fooled by any tactical move by Russia, supported by China or any other country, to freeze the war on its own terms."[38]

During the 2023 Belarus-China summit, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Xi jointly stated "deep concern about the development of the armed conflict in the European region and extreme interest in the soonest possible establishment of peace in Ukraine[.]"[39]

In June 2023, China's envoy to Ukraine Li Hui urged all parties to respect territorial integrity, stop arming the battlefield, and ensure the safety of nuclear facilities.[40]

Following the 2023 Shangri-La Dialogue, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that the peace plans presented by other countries such as China were attempts to mediate on behalf of Russia and that Ukraine is willing to accept a mediator only if the Russians can be convinced to withdraw from all Ukrainian territories.[15][41]

China's 12-point peace plan was presented during a 42-nation peace discussion on 5 August 2023 at Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and live feedback was received.[42]

State media

The coverage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine by mainland Chinese media has raised some controversies. The European External Action Service stated that "Chinese state-controlled media and official social media channels have amplified selected pro-Kremlin conspiracy narratives."[43] BBC and CNN believe that discussions of the topic in mainland China are led by Chinese state media outlets, including Global Times, China Central Television (CCTV), and People’s Daily.[44][12] The journalistic integrity of these outlets has been called into question. As an example, it was suspected that two days before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Horizon News, the international relations subsection of The Beijing News, accidentally released an internal notice publicly on its official Weibo account. The internal notice included censorship guidelines that demanded the restriction of content that is “unfavourable to Russia” and “pro-West”.[45][46] On the same day, an article on the Global Times website referred to Donetsk and Luhansk as “two nations”.[47] The article was later retracted as mainland Chinese media began to collectively refer to the two areas as “regions”.[47] On the day Russia launched its military operation against Ukraine, the Communist Youth League of China posted a rendition of the Soviet patriotic song “Katyusha” in Mandarin on its official bilibili account.[48] Initium Media saw this action as an attempt to sensationalize the military conflict.[48]

Several media outlets believe that Chinese media undertook selective reporting. Deutsche Welle and CNN questioned the avoidance of words such as “invasion” and “attack”, and the bias towards information from Russian officials, as well as the promotion of anti-U.S. sentiments within China.[12][49][50] However, The Wall Street Journal believes that Chinese state-run media outlets were exercising restraint in their coverage of the conflict, an indication of the cautious stance taken by the Chinese government.[51] Radio France Internationale believes that while China has not condemned Russia's invasion, it does not encourage its citizens to support Ukrainians, and has not openly supported Russia.[52]

On 4 March, China Central Television (CCTV) started the live broadcast of the opening ceremony of the 2022 Paralympic Winter Games, which was held in Beijing. During the broadcast, the chairman of the International Paralympic Committee Andrew Parsons mentioned the conflict in a speech made in English, harshly condemning the invasion and calling for peace. CCTV muted this segment of the speech, and did not release a complete translation.[52][53] A shot of 20 Ukrainian athletes applauding and calling for peace was also removed.[54] The International Paralympic Committee believed that censorship took place and demanded an explanation from CCTV.[55]

As of early March, journalist Lu Yuguang of state-run Phoenix Television was the only foreign correspondent to have been embedded with frontline Russian forces.[56]

After the Bucha massacre, Chinese state media began to show favor for the Russian point of view.[57] On 5 April, CCTV-4 relayed the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s claim that the Bucha massacre is fake news, spread by Ukraine and the West to slander Russia. Chinese media selectively reported on Ukrainian president Vlodomir Zelensky’s survey of the scene of the massacre, but did not report on the horrific nature of the scene and the pleas from local residents. Global Times claimed that the Bucha massacre was a publicity stunt, in which the U.S. was involved.[58] CCTV made a report in the news at noon on 5 April, in line with the Russian side's allegation that the massacre in Bucha was fake, entitled "Russian Foreign Minister: Uncovering the lies of the Bucha case".[59] As of 6 April, state-run Chinese media outlets such as Xinhua News Agency and People’s Daily had not reported on the Bucha massacre in detail.[59]

Industry

In January 2023, Bloomberg News reported that the U.S. government confronted the Chinese about their state-owned enterprises providing non-lethal assistance to Russia. The sources declined to discuss any evidence in detail except to say that the assistance stopped short of evading wholesale the sanctions "the US and its allies imposed" after Russia invaded Ukraine. The White House said it was monitoring and reviewing the situation.[60]

In February 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported that according to Russian customs data, Chinese companies have shipped dual-use items such as navigation equipment, jamming technology, and fighter jet parts to Russian state-owned companies.[61] The same month, Der Spiegel reported that Xi’an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology was in talks to sell "kamikaze drones" to Russia.[62] Chinese companies have called the reports inaccurate.[61][62] The New York Times subsequently reported that Poly Technologies sent sufficient quantities of gunpower to the Barnaul Cartridge Plant to make 80 million rounds of ammunition.[9]

In March 2023, Politico reported that between June and December 2022, Chinese companies such as the state-owned Norinco shipped dual-use items, including assault rifles, drone parts, and body armor, to Russian companies, which have also been routing shipments via Middle Eastern countries that have relationships with both Russia and the West.[63][64] U.S. officials stated that according to intelligence gleaned from Russia, China was considering supplying the country with lethal aid. Different American officials expressed varying degrees of confidence in this assessment.[65] The U.S. also said Chinese-made ammunition has been used in Ukraine, although it was unclear who supplied it.[66] Other officials said that they had not seen evidence that China actually supplied arms to Russia. The U.S. statement came at the eve of China's unveiling of its peace plan to stop the war. The Biden administration decided against declassifying any sensitive details of the intelligence report.[65]

Civil society

Due to the rise of anti-U.S. sentiments in China in recent years, as well as the bilateral strategic partnership between China and Russia, mainstream public opinions among Chinese civil society support the actions and position taken by the Russian president Vladimir Putin. While anti-war and pro-Ukraine voices exist, they are few in number and have been viciously attacked by the pro-Russian masses and often censored.[49][67][68][12]

According to Voice of America, a large volume of controversial commentary surfaced on Chinese social media in the early stages of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.[69] Coupled with the fact that online discussions are strictly monitored and censored by the state, many believe that Chinese public opinion on the matter is divided, with opposing factions.[70][49]

On one hand, much commentary is in support of Russia, recognizing Russia's concern for national security, and attributing the deterioration of Russia-Ukraine relations to NATO and Western nations such as the U.S.. As a result, these commentators support the military invasion of Ukraine, and even praise the Russian president Vladimir Putin as a heroic figure that dares to challenge the West.[49][67][68] According to a survey published by the US-China Perception Monitor in April 2022, 75% of online Chinese respondents said they agreed or strongly agreed that supporting Russia in the conflict was in China's national interest.[71]

On the other hand, anti-war figures also exist in mainland China,[48] such as the public figures Jin Xing,[72] Yuan Li, and Ke Lan. Many professors[73] and alumni[74] of institutions, including Peking University and Tsinghua University, also publicly expressed anti-war statements, but these statements have been harshly criticized by netizens, and are censored or deleted on mainland Chinese social media platforms.[75][76][77][78] Chinese company NetEase has published a few videos critical of Russia from Chinese in Ukraine and Ukrainians in China.[79][80]

Furthermore, misogynistic comments have also been made by Chinese netizens, with "taking in beautiful Ukrainian women" becoming a meme.[81][82] These comments have been collectively translated and circulated outside of Chinese social media platforms, inciting widespread anti-Chinese sentiments and threatening the safety of Chinese people living in Ukraine.[83][84] Such comments have also been found on social media in the Republic of China.[85] Some mainland netizens also promoted Chinese unification with Taiwan by force in their discussions of the Russian invasion.[51] In response, Chinese state-run media outlet The Paper urged the public to comment on the war rationally, and not to become "vulgar bystanders".[86]

On 26 February 2022, five Chinese historians signed an open letter opposing the invasion, stating that "great catastrophes in history often started with local conflicts." However, the letter was removed from the Internet by Chinese censors after three hours.[87]

On 5 March, Hu Wei, the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counsellors' Office of the State Council, wrote an article arguing that "China needs to respond flexibly and make strategic choices that conform to its long-term interests" and that "China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible."[88]

In September 2023, a Chinese opera singer Wang Fang sparked a diplomatic row after singing the Soviet war song "Katyusha" inside the Donetsk Academic Regional Drama Theater in Mariupol where hundreds were killed in 2022.[89] Wang was part of a group of Chinese bloggers illegally visiting the Ukrainian city. Oleg Nikolenko, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, said that "the performance of the song “Katyusha” by Chinese ‘opera singer’ Wang Fan on the ruins of the Mariupol Drama Theater, where the Russian army killed more than 600 innocent people, is an example of complete moral degradation".[90] The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine said it is initiating a ban on entry to Ukraine for all "touring" Chinese bloggers in response and expects the Chinese side to explain the purpose of the Chinese citizens' stay in Mariupol, as well as the way they entered the temporarily occupied Ukrainian city.[91]

Opinion polling

According to a Genron NPO poll released in November 2022 on Chinese peoples' views of the Russian invasion, 39.5% of respondents said the Russian actions "are not wrong", 21.5% said "the Russian actions are a violation of the U.N. Charter and international laws, and should be opposed", and 29% said "the Russian actions are wrong, but the circumstances should be considered."[92][93]

International reactions

European Union

In May 2023, European Union (EU) officials reportedly criticized China's peace plan as an attempt at "freezing" the conflict in place and splitting the West in pushing Ukraine cease-fire.[94]

NATO

On 23 March 2022, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg accused China of providing political support to Russia, "including by spreading blatant lies and misinformation," and expressed concern that "China could provide material support for the Russian invasion."[95]

United Kingdom

In July 2023, Britain's head of MI6, Richard Moore, stated that the Chinese government and Xi Jinping were "absolutely complicit" in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[96]

United States

On 9 July 2022, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken dismissed China's claims to be neutral in the Russo-Ukrainian War and accused China of supporting Russia.[97]

Ukraine

In a 2019 poll by the Pew Research Center, 57% of Ukrainians held a favourable view towards China while 14% held an unfavourable view.[98] Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, however, public attitudes towards China shifted: an opinion poll conducted in February-March 2023 by the Razumkov Centre showed that 60% of Ukrainians surveyed had a negative view of China.[99]

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that China has the economic leverage to pressure Putin to end the war, adding, "I’m sure that without the Chinese market for the Russian Federation, Russia would be feeling complete economic isolation. That’s something that China can do – to limit the trade [with Russia] until the war is over." In August 2022, Zelenskyy said that since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Xi Jinping had refused all his requests for direct talks with him.[14]

Sanctions against China

E.U. sanctions

In May 2023, the EU discussed placing sanctions on companies from China and five other countries for selling equipment that could be used in weapons by Russia.[100] The Chinese government made a commitment to put pressure on the China-based companies on the list, prompting the EU to temporarily remove five of the eight Chinese companies on the draft list.[101]

U.S. sanctions

In April 2022, U.S. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen warned China that it could face consequences for not sanctioning Russia.[102]

In June 2022, the United States Department of Commerce added 36 companies to the Entity List based in more than eight countries, including five from China, alleging that they supplied Russian and Iranian entities with items under US sanction for the war in Ukraine.[103] The U.S. Treasury Department separately sanctioned a Chinese and an Armenian vendor for maintaining trade relationship with a Russian arms procurement firm.[104][61]

In March 2023, the Treasury Department sanctioned six Chinese entities for supplying components to the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries Corporation, which manufactures HESA Shahed 136 drones used by Russia against Ukraine.[105][106] US and European officials said there was no evidence China itself was supplying weapons to Russia. Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang denied supplying weapons to either side of the conflict.[105]

In July 2023, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence published a report stating that the Chinese government is assisting Russia to evade sanctions and providing it with dual-use technology.[107][108]

In October 2023, the US Department of Commerce added 42 Chinese companies to the Entity List for supplying Russia with microelectronics for missile and drone guidance systems.[109]

International commentary and analysis

The Economist has stated that China's professed neutrality is in reality a pro-Russian pseudo-neutrality.[110] Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations has stated that "for China, the war in Ukraine simply isn’t that important," adding that the war is seen "not as a cataclysmic war that’s reshaping the global order, but as a proxy conflict."[111]

Joseph Torigian of the American University described the Chinese government's position on the invasion as a "balancing act," stating that "the governments of both countries hold similarly negative views about America’s role in Europe and Asia" but that China would not be willing to put its financial interests at risk to support Russia, especially given that China was "trying to preserve its reputation as a responsible stakeholder."[112] Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution has argued that "without Russia, the thinking goes, China would be alone to deal with a hostile west determined to obstruct China's rise," but that the two countries "do not have perfectly aligned interests. China has a lot more to lose than Russia. China sees itself as a country on the rise with momentum behind it. Russia is essentially fighting the tides of decline."[113]

Several commentators have foreseen a potential role for China as a key mediator in the conflict. Érick Duchesne of the Université Laval has argued that "strategic ambiguity on the part of China could have a beneficial effect and help untie the Gordian knot of the crisis" and that it would be a "a serious mistake" for NATO countries to oppose Chinese mediation.[114] Zeno Leoni of King's College London argued that "should China lead parties involved to a new peace, it would be a major diplomatic and public relations victory for Beijing," as the Chinese government "would be able to present itself as a responsible great power and to convince the west that in future they might have to rely on Beijing's global influence at a time when US influence is declining."[115]

See also

References

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