2002 Arizona gubernatorial election
November 5, 2002
Turnout56.33%[1]
 
Nominee Janet Napolitano Matt Salmon Richard Mahoney
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Popular vote 566,284 554,465 84,947
Percentage 46.2% 45.2% 6.9%
County results
Napolitano:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Salmon:      40–50%      50–60%
Governor before election

Jane Dee Hull
Republican

 Elected Governor

Janet Napolitano
Democratic

Republican primary results by county
  Salmon
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results by county
  Napolitano
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Gutierrez
  •   30–40%
Libertarian primary results by county
  Hess
  •   50-60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Fallon
  •   50–60%
  Tie

The 2002 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican Governor Jane Dee Hull was term-limited. The Democratic nominee, Arizona Attorney General Janet Napolitano, narrowly defeated Republican Matt Salmon, a former U.S. Representative. Upon her inauguration, Napolitano became the first woman to succeed another woman as Governor of a state. Until 2022, this was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona in which the margin of victory was single digits.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declined to run

Results

Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Salmon 174,055 56.0
Republican Betsey Bayless 92,473 29.8
Republican Carol Springer 44,333 14.3
Republican Write-ins 24 0.0
Total votes 310,861 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Democratic primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Janet Napolitano 128,702 57.2
Democratic Alfredo Gutierrez 50,377 22.4
Democratic Mark Osterloh 31,422 14.0
Democratic Mike Newcomb 14,373 6.4
Total votes 224,874 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Results

Libertarian primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Barry Hess 1,414 51.0
Libertarian Gary Fallon 1,358 49.0
Total votes 2,772 100.0

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[4] Tossup October 31, 2002
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Lean D (flip) November 4, 2002

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Janet
Napolitano (D)		 Matt
Salmon (R)		 Richard
Mahoney (I)		 Barry
Hess (L)		 Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA October 29–31, 2002 661 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 41% 11% 3% 1%

Results

The election was extremely close: Napolitano won by just 11,819 votes out of 1,226,111 cast, the closest gubernatorial election in Arizona in many years. Napolitano also won without carrying Maricopa County. Under Arizonan law, the losing candidate may request a recount, for which that candidate must pay, if the margin of victory is less than one percent but greater than half of one percent. In 2002, the margin of victory in 2002 was 1.0%, barely allowing a recount.

It soon became apparent that Napolitano had won the election and would be the next Governor of Arizona. Salmon acknowledged that the chance of his prevailing in a recount was extremely small and decided not to ask for one (recounts seldom see a swing over 1,000 votes ; he was losing by over 10,000). He officially called Napolitano on November 17 and congratulated her on her victory.

On November 20, Arizona Secretary of State Betsey Bayless certified the results of the election and declared Napolitano the governor-elect.

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2002[6]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Janet Napolitano 566,284 46.2% +10.7%
Republican Matt Salmon 554,465 45.2% -15.7%
Independent Richard D. Mahoney 84,947 6.9% N/A
Libertarian Barry Hess 20,356 1.7% -1.0%
Write-in 59 0.0% N/A
Majority 11,819 1.0% -24.5%
Turnout 1,226,111 55.0 +10.0
Democratic gain from Republican Swing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. ↑ "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  2. ↑ Ayres, B. Drummond Jr. (February 11, 2001). "Political Briefing; From Arizona, Talk Of a Bid by Quayle (Published 2001)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
  3. 1 2 3 "Primary" (PDF). Azsos. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 26, 2004.
  4. ↑ "Governor Updated October 31, 2002 | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. October 31, 2002. Archived from the original on December 8, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
  5. ↑ "Governors Races". www.centerforpolitics.org. November 4, 2002. Archived from the original on December 12, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
  6. ↑ "General" (PDF). Azsos. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 26, 2004.
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