41st New Brunswick general election
On or before October 21, 2024
49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick
25 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Blaine Higgs Susan Holt
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since October 22, 2016 August 6, 2022
Leader's seat Quispamsis Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore
Last election 27 seats, 39.34% 17 seats, 34.35%
Current seats 29 16
 
Leader David Coon Rick DeSaulniers
Party Green People's Alliance
Leader since September 22, 2012 April 22, 2022
Leader's seat Fredericton South N/A[lower-alpha 1]
Last election 3 seats, 15.24% 2 seats, 9.19%
Current seats 3 0
Incumbent Premier

Blaine Higgs
Progressive Conservative


The 41st New Brunswick general election is scheduled to take place on or before October 21, 2024, according to the Legislative Assembly Act of 2017 which states that an election should be held every four years on the third Monday in October.[1]

Background

Defections and de-registration of the People's Alliance

On March 30, 2022, Kris Austin and Michelle Conroy announced their departures from the People's Alliance to join the Progressive Conservatives. Austin said that the result of the 2020 provincial election, when the party lost one of its three seats, had prompted him to undertake some “soul-searching”, but that he believed he had changed politics in New Brunswick.[2] Both Austin and Conroy stated that they believed they could better represent their ridings from within government.[3]

Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs expressed excitement about his party's new MLAs, but reiterated the party's support for official bilingualism when questioned about the People's Alliance's previous stances on the issue. The acceptance of MLAs who had expressed anti-bilingual opinions was criticized by the Acadian Society of New Brunswick, an organization promoting the rights of francophones in the province, when their president Alexandre Cédric Doucet said that he was happy to see the Alliance dissolve, but that it was "a sad day" for the Progressive Conservatives.[3]

The Chief Electoral Officer of New Brunswick confirmed that the Peoples Alliance of New Brunswick would be deregistered as a provincial party on March 31, 2022.[4] In April 2022, interim leader Rick DeSaulniers and party announced plans to re-register as a party.[5] Elections New Brunswick confirmed the party was re-registered in May 2022.[6]

Current standings

Standings in the 60th Legislature of New Brunswick
Affiliation Assembly members
2020 election results Current
Progressive Conservative 27 29
Liberal 17 16
Green 3 3
People's Alliance 2 0
Independent 0 1
Vacant 0
Total members 49 49
Total seats 49 49

Summary of seat changes

Changes in seats held (2020–present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin August 17, 2021 Jake Stewart █ PC Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election; elected. June 20, 2022 Mike Dawson █ PC
Miramichi Bay-Neguac Lisa Harris █ Liberal Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election; defeated. Réjean Savoie █ PC
Fredericton-Grand Lake March 30, 2022 Kris Austin █ People's Allnc. Changed affiliation, resigning as People's Alliance leader and announcing his intention to deregister the party. █ PC
Miramichi Michelle Conroy █ People's Allnc. Changed affiliation. █ PC
Fredericton West-Hanwell October 16, 2022 Dominic Cardy █ PC Expelled from the PC caucus having resigned his ministerial role. █ Independent
Dieppe October 21, 2022 Roger Melanson █ Liberal Resigned to head to the private sector. April 24, 2023 Richard Losier █ Liberal
Restigouche-Chaleur November 27, 2022 Daniel Guitard █ Liberal Resigned to run for Mayor of Belle-Baie in 2022 elections; elected. Marco LeBlanc █ Liberal
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore November 27, 2022 Denis Landry █ Liberal Resigned to run for Mayor of Hautes-Terres in 2022 elections; elected. Susan Holt █ Liberal

Opinion polls

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link PC Liberal Green PA NDP Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Narrative Research November 27, 2023 [p 1] 35 41 10 2 13 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 6
Narrative Research August 21, 2023 [p 2] 36 38 16 1 8 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 2
Narrative Research May 17, 2023 [p 3] 34 34 19 2 10 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone 0
Narrative Research February 25, 2023 [p 4] 37 35 17 2 9 ±4.6 pp 450 telephone 2
Leger December 23, 2022 [p 5] 22 40 15 9 12 ±4.4 pp 500 online 18
Narrative Research November 27, 2022 [p 6] 30 39 18 2 10 ±4.0 pp 611 telephone 9
Narrative Research August 24, 2022 [p 7] 30 41 14 5 11 ±4.2 pp 525 telephone 11
Susan Holt is elected leader of the Liberal Party (August 6, 2022)
Angus Reid June 13, 2022 [p 8] 31 36 14 5 13 ±6.0 pp 247 online 5
Narrative Research May 19, 2022 [p 9] 34 34 17 4 9 ±4.0 pp 607 telephone 0
Nanos Research April 11, 2022 [p 10] 36.6 38.8 14.2 1.2 8.6 ±4.8 pp 423 online/telephone 2.2
Both People's Alliance MLAs join the Progressive Conservatives, with Kris Austin announcing intention to de-register the party (March 30, 2022)
Angus Reid March 15, 2022 [p 11] 31 32 15 13 9 ±6.0 pp 251 online 1
Narrative Research February 27, 2022 [p 12] 34 31 16 5 11 ±4.2 pp 545 telephone 3
Angus Reid January 10, 2022 [p 13] 26 37 16 10 8 ±7.0 pp 216 online 11
MQO Research December 14, 2021 [p 14] 29 36 16 5 11 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone (rolling) 7
Narrative Research November 24, 2021 [p 15] 28 38 14 5 13 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone 10
Stratcom November 6, 2021 [p 16] 20.5 39.8 17.9 12.0 - ±2.8 pp 1,184 IVR 19.3
Angus Reid October 3, 2021 [p 17] 31 31 12 12 13 ±2.0 pp 265 online 0
Narrative Research August 17, 2021 [p 18] 33 29 22 5 11 ±2.0 pp 604 telephone 4
Angus Reid June 7, 2021 [p 19] 36 31 17 12 4 ±2.0 pp 248 online 5
Narrative Research May 31, 2021 [p 20] 39 28 18 6 8 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone (rolling) 11
MQO Research March 18, 2021 [p 21] 38 31 17 5 6 ±4.9 pp 400 telephone (rolling) 7
Narrative Research February 17, 2021 [p 22] 35 32 20 6 6 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone (rolling) 3
Narrative Research November 22, 2020 [p 23] 41 28 20 4 6 ±3.5 pp 800 telephone (rolling) 13
Kevin Vickers resigns as Liberal Party leader; MLA for Dieppe Roger Melanson becomes interim leader (September 14, 2020)
Election 2020 September 14, 2020 HTML 39.3 34.4 15.2 9.2 1.7 — — 4.9
Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling		 Link Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
PC Liberal Green PA NDP

Notes

  1. ↑ DeSaulniers was the MLA for Fredericton-York, 2018-2020.

References

  1. ↑ Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick. "An Act to Amend the Legislative Assembly Act". Archived from the original on November 14, 2018. Retrieved November 27, 2018.
  2. ↑ "People's Alliance leader Kris Austin steps down, joins N.B. Progressive Conservatives - New Brunswick | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved 2022-03-30.
  3. 1 2 Poitras, Jacques (March 30, 2022). "People's Alliance MLAs cross the floor to join Tory government". CBC. Archived from the original on 2022-03-31. Retrieved March 30, 2022.
  4. ↑ "Les deux députés de la People's Alliance joignent les conservateurs". Acadie Nouvelle (in French). 2022-03-30. Retrieved 2022-03-30.
  5. ↑ Poitras, Jacques (2022-04-22). "People's Alliance supporters push to resurrect party ahead of June byelections". CBC News. Retrieved 2022-04-22.
  6. ↑ Poitras, Jacques (May 31, 2022). "People's Alliance lives on, chooses new leader". CBC News.

Opinion poll sources

  1. ↑ "The Liberals edge slightly ahead in terms of voting intentions". Narrative Research. 5 December 2023. Retrieved 5 December 2023.
  2. ↑ "The PCs and Liberals are neck-and-neck in terms of voting intentions and leader support". Narrative Research. 24 August 2023. Retrieved 24 August 2023.
  3. ↑ "NB: The PCs and Liberals remain neck-in-neck in terms of voting intentions, with the Liberal Party leader most preferred as premier". Narrative Research. 24 May 2023. Retrieved 24 May 2023.
  4. ↑ "NB: The PCs and Liberals are neck-in-neck in terms of voting intentions and leader support". Narrative Research. 2023-03-07. Retrieved 2023-03-07.
  5. ↑ Poitras, Jacques (2023-01-17). "N.B. premier takes political hit over immersion decision, poll suggests". CBC News. Retrieved 2023-01-18.
  6. ↑ "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has declined, with a majority dissatisfied" (PDF). Narrative Research. 2022-12-01. Retrieved 2022-12-01.
  7. ↑ Edmunds, Tal (2022-08-30). "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has remained stable, with residents currently more inclined to be dissatisfied than satisfied". Narrative Research. Retrieved 2022-08-31.
  8. ↑ "Atlantic Spotlight: Soaring inflation, floundering health-care systems leave East Coasters critical of governments". Angus Reid. July 2022.
  9. ↑ Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has declined, with residents currently more inclined to be dissatisfied than satisfied., 12 March 2020, retrieved 2022-05-25
  10. ↑ Nanos poll: Conservatives open "statistically significant" lead over Trudeau's Liberals | TREND LINE, retrieved 2022-04-28
  11. ↑ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid. March 2022.
  12. ↑ "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has partially rebounded after a decline at the end of 2021". Narrative Research. 2022-03-03. Retrieved 2022-03-04.
  13. ↑ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics". Angus Reid. January 2022.
  14. ↑ "Fall/Winter 2021 Provincial Report New Brunswick" (PDF). MQO Research. December 2021.
  15. ↑ "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government has declined dramatically, reaching the lowest level in more than two decades". Narrative Research. 2021-11-30. Retrieved 2022-01-21.
  16. ↑ "New Brunswick Polling 2021 Public Service Workers Strike" (PDF). Stratcom. November 9, 2021.
  17. ↑ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments". Angus Reid. October 27, 2021.
  18. ↑ "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government remains high despite continued downward trend over the last year". Narrative Research. 2021-09-22. Retrieved 2022-01-21.
  19. ↑ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity & political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management" (PDF). Angus Reid. June 9, 2021.
  20. ↑ "Overall satisfaction with the New Brunswick government's performance has declined, although it remains strong and above pre-pandemic levels". Narrative Research. June 3, 2021.
  21. ↑ "Spring 2021 Provincial Report New Brunswick" (PDF). MQO Research. March 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 8, 2021.
  22. ↑ "Overall satisfaction with the performance of the New Brunswick provincial government continues to be high and remains well above pre-pandemic levels". Narrative Research. March 9, 2021.
  23. ↑ "New Brunswick Voter Intentions" (PDF). Narrative Research. December 8, 2020. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 30, 2021.
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