The 2023 Kaduna State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Kaduna State, concurrent with elections to the Kaduna State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.^[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.^[3] Incumbent APC Governor Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating former House of Representatives member Isa Ashiru on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Uba Sani—Senator for Kaduna Central—on 26 May.^[4][5] In August, Jonathan Asake—a former House of Representatives member and former Southern Kaduna Peoples Union President—won the nomination of the Labour Party in a rerun primary.^[6]

Electoral system

The Governor of Kaduna State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Kaduna State is a large, diverse northwestern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector and intense challenges in security as the nationwide kidnapping epidemic, bandit conflict, inter-ethnic violence, and herder–farmer clashes have all heavily affected the state.^{[7][8][9][10][11]}

Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a slight solidification of the Kaduna APC's control as el-Rufai won re-election with over 55% of the vote and the party retained its House of Assembly majority. Federally, the APC regained two of the three Senate seats it lost due to defections and won eleven of the sixteen House of Representatives seats. For the presidency, Kaduna was won by APC nominee Muhammadu Buhari with about 60% but swung slightly towards the PDP. The 2019 elections also showed the political divide between the diverse, Christian-majority Southern region and the mainly Hausa and Fulani, Muslim-majority Northern and Central regions as the former region moved towards the PDP while the latter two regions stuck with the APC.

Ahead of el-Rufai's second term, his administration stated focuses included government reform, forging a positive business environment, unity, education, and urban development.^[12] In terms of his performance, el-Rufai was praised for proper budgeting, expanding free education, a proactive response to the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, urban infrastructure development, and raising pensions.^{[13][14][15][16]} However, he faced criticism for alleged anti-Christian sentiment in the state government, rising insecurity and el-Rufai's irresponsible statements on it, and labour disputes along with authoritarian-esque actions including the arrest of journalists and the infiltration of Amnesty International Nigeria.^{[17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25]}

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.^[2][26] According to some candidates and community groups, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Kaduna South Senatorial District to have the next governor as the only governor from the south did not finish his term. However, no major party zoned their nomination. Another informal convention mandated different religion tickets with one running mate being Christian while the other was Muslim; however, el-Rufai discarded this tradition in 2019 and neither party committed to a return to the tradition.

Campaign

As the general election campaign began in June 2022, pundits focused on the major candidates' search for running mates. Due to geopolitical dynamics and the state's religious diversity, informal convention states that a nominee from Kaduna Central or North districts should pick a running mate from Southern Kaduna and vice versa along with balancing the ticket religiously by picking a ticket with one Muslim and one Christian. As both the PDP and the APC nominated Muslims from the Central and North districts, they were expected to select a southern Christian running mate. While Ashiru followed the convention by picking John Ayuba—a Christian from Zangon Kataf LGA, the APC again violated the religious part of the convention by renominating incumbent Deputy Governor Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe—a Muslim from Sanga LGA. As the national APC also violated the anti-same religion ticket convention by nominating the Bola Tinubu-Kashim Shettima slate and el-Rufai faced constant criticism of his handling of inter-religious tensions, analysts noted the likely significance of religious identity in the Kaduna election. However, Ayuba's selection was not without controversy either as youth groups lamented his age of 68.^[87]

As the general election campaign began in July and August, reporting also pointed out other potential factors like the el-Rufai administration's urban renewal projects, APC members aggrieved by the contentious party primary, Sani's senate performance, expected PDP dominance in Southern Kaduna, and PDP internal disputes along with the more prominent minor party nominees—Jonathan Asake (LP), Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi (NNPP), and Hayatuddeen Lawal Makarfi (PRP).^[88][89] Further analysis by November surmised that the two strongest minor party nominees—Asake and Othman Hunkuyi—could split the formerly PDP base, potentially allowing Sani to win with a plurality.^[90]

With the election nearing, BBC Hausa organized a debate on 18 January 2023 and invited Sani, Asake, Othman Hunkuyi, and Ashiru to participate.^{[lower-alpha 1]} While Asake did not attend, the other three had a heated debate on topics ranging from agriculture to security.^[91] In February, focus mainly switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Kaduna State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won the state with 40.8% of the vote to defeat Bola Tinubu (APC) at 29.4%, Peter Obi (LP) at 21.7%, and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) at 6.8%. Considered a slight surprise, the result led to increased focus on the gubernatorial race due to the significant margin of victory for Abubakar and PDP success in the state's National Assembly elections. Gubernatorial campaign analysis from after the presidential election noted shock from APC figures that pushed the party to call on Islamic clerics to market voting for its Muslim-Muslim ticket as a "religious obligation" while other pundits emphasized that Asake's path to victory came from sweeping Christian voters if the Muslim voters split between Sani and Ashiru. At the same time, other observers like Jaafar Jaafar doubted Asake's chances of victory and reiterated that Asake's strength among formerly PDP supporting southern communities could allow Sani to win by splitting the old PDP base.^{[92][93][94][95]}

Projections

Conduct

General election

See also

• 2023 Nigerian general election
• 2023 Nigerian gubernatorial elections

Notes

References