2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary
March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01)
16 pledged delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention
 
Candidate Donald Trump John Kasich
Home state New York Ohio
Delegate count 8 8
Popular vote 19,974 18,534
Percentage 32.34% 30.01%
 
Candidate Marco Rubio Ted Cruz
Home state Florida Texas
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 11,781 5,932
Percentage 19.08% 9.61%

The 2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary was held on March 1, 2016, along with ten other state nominating contests during Super Tuesday.

Donald Trump held a big edge in Vermont polls, with John Kasich and Marco Rubio splitting much of the rest of the vote.[1] However, on election day, Donald Trump only narrowly won the popular vote by 2.3%, and tied with John Kasich in the delegate count.

Polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results March 1, 2016 Donald Trump32.34% John Kasich30.01% Marco Rubio19.08% Ted Cruz 9.61%, Ben Carson 4.13%, Jeb Bush 1.79%, Rand Paul 0.68%, Chris Christie 0.58%, Carly Fiorina 0.34%, Rick Santorum 0.27%
Castleton University/Vermont

Public Radio[2]

Margin of error: ± 9.01% Sample size: 118

 February 3–17, 2016 Donald Trump
32.4%		 Marco Rubio

16.9%

 Ted Cruz

10.5%

 John Kasich 10.0%, Jeb Bush 7.7%, Ben Carson 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Carly Fiorina 1.0%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Someone else 3.3%, Not sure/Don't know 12.1%

Results

2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary
Candidate Vote[3] Delegates[4]
# %
Donald Trump 19,974 32.52 8
John Kasich 18,534 30.17 8
Marco Rubio 11,781 19.18 0
Ted Cruz 5,932 9.66 0
Ben Carson 2,551 4.15 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 1,106 1.80 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 423 0.69 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 361 0.59 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 212 0.35 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 164 0.27 0
Write-ins 390 0.63 0
Total valid votes 61,428 100% 16

Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 20% or more of the vote proportionally.

Analysis

Vermont's voter base is much more moderate and irreligious than the Southern Super Tuesday contests.[5] Exit polls by Edison Research showed this benefitted Trump and Kasich: Trump carried somewhat conservative voters with 35% of the vote, but John Kasich won moderates with 40% to Trump's 34%.[6] Kasich did particularly well in the populous Burlington metro, holding Trump to a narrow margin statewide.

Turnout dropped in the Vermont Republican primary compared with 2012, as some registered Republicans crossed over to vote for favorite son Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary.

See also

References

  1. ↑ Cox, Amanda; Katz, Josh; Quealy, Kevin (March 1, 2016). "Who Will Win Super Tuesday? Live Estimates of Tonight's Final Republican Delegate Count". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 19, 2022.
  2. ↑ "The VPR Poll: The Races, The Issues And The Full Results". The Castleton Polling Institute. February 22, 2016. Retrieved February 23, 2016.
  3. ↑ "VT Elections Database » 2016 President Republican Primary". VT Elections Database. Retrieved June 17, 2020.
  4. ↑ "Vermont Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved June 17, 2020.
  5. ↑ Lipka, Michael. "A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states". Pew Research Center. Retrieved June 19, 2022.
  6. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 19, 2022.


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