1. World population growth 1700–2100, 2022 projection

Population projections are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future.[1] These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being.[2] Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future.[3] These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth.[3]

The 2022 projections from the United Nations Population Division (chart #1) show that annual world population growth peaked at 2.3% per year in 1963, has since dropped to 0.9% in 2023, equivalent to about 74 million people each year, and projected that it could drop even further to minus 0.1% by 2100.[4] Based on this, the UN projected that the world population, 8 billion as of 2023, would peak around the year 2086 at about 10.4 billion, and then start a slow decline, assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.8 by the year 2100, (the medium-variant projection).[5][6]

However, estimates outside of the United Nations have put forward alternative models based on additional downward pressure on fertility (such as successful implementation of education and family planning goals in the UN's Sustainable Development Goals) which could result in peak population during the 2060–2070 period rather than later.[3][7]

According to the UN, of the predicted growth in world population between 2020 and 2050, all of that change will come from less developed countries, and more than half will come from sub-Saharan Africa.[8] Half of the growth will come from just eight countries, five of which are in Africa.[5][6] The UN predicts that the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double by 2050.[8] The Pew Research Center observes that 50% of births in the year 2100 will be in Africa.[9] Other organizations project lower levels of population growth in Africa, based particularly on improvement in women's education and successful implementation of family planning.[10]

2. World population prospects, 2022 projection[11]

During the remainder of this century some countries will see population growth, some will see population decline.  For example the UN projects that Nigeria will gain about 340 million people, about the present population of the US, to become the 3rd most populous country, and China will lose almost half of its population.[5][6]

Even though the global fertility rate continues to fall, chart #2 shows that because of population momentum the global population will continue to grow, although at a steadily slower rate, until the mid 2080s (the median line).

The main driver of long-term future population growth on this planet is projected to be the continuing evolution of fertility and mortality.[3]

History of population projections

Projections of global human population are generally based on birth rates and death rates, and since these are difficult to predict very far into the future, forecasts of global population numbers and growth rates have changed over time.

19th century

In 1831, president of Yale college Jeremiah Day included a United States population estimate as an example of an exponential equation. After stating that the 1820 population of the United States was 9,625,000, the projected 2020 population would be 2,464,000,000 (supposing it to double once every 25 years).[12]

In the Bible Cyclopedia of 1850, John Parker Lawson reviewed world population growth before and after the Biblical Great Flood and used these estimates to conclude that, "in the year 2020, the sum total of the whole human race would amount to 54,975,581,388,800", but subtracting for nature, casualties and accidents, Lawson estimated 27 million.[13]

20th century

Walter Greiling projected in the 1950s that world population would reach a peak of about nine billion in the 21st century and then stop growing after an improvement in public health in less developed countries.[14]

21st century

Estimates published in the early 2000s tended to predict that the population of Earth would stop increasing around 2070.[15] For example in a 2004 long-term prospective report, the United Nations Population Division projected that world population would peak at 9.2 billion in 2075 and then stabilize at a value close to 9 billion out to as far as the year 2300.[16]

Jørgen Randers, one of the authors of the seminal 1972 long-term simulations in The Limits to Growth, offered an alternative scenario in a 2012 book, arguing that traditional projections insufficiently take into account the downward impact of global urbanization on fertility. Randers' "most likely scenario" predicted a peak in world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline.[17]

In 2012, the UN changed its prediction to the effect that no maximum would likely be reached in the 21st century, and that by the year 2100 world population would increase to somewhere in the range 9.6 to 12.3 billion with 10.9 billion being the midpoint of that range.[18] The main reason for the revision was a recognition that the high fertility rate in Africa was not declining as fast as had been previously assumed.[19]

Another 2014 paper by demographers from several universities, using data from the UN's 2014 report and their own statistical methods, forecast that the world's population would reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter.[20]

In 2017 the UN predicted that global population would reach 11.2 billion by 2100 and still be growing then at the rate of 0.1% per year.[21]

The most recent 2022 revision of the UN's World Population Prospects report[22] represents a departure from the pattern of the previous ten years and expects that a slowing of the population growth rate will lead to a population peak of 10.4 billion in the 2080s, after which it would then begin to slowly fall. This shift from earlier projections of peak population and predicted date of zero population growth comes from a more rapid drop in Africa’s birth rate than previous projections had expected.[23]  For example, the 2012 report predicted that the population of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, would rise to 914 million by 2100; the 2022 report lowers that to 546 million, a reduction of 368 million.[18][6][23] Jose Rimon of Johns Hopkins University suggested, "We have been underestimating what is happening in terms of fertility change in Africa. Africa will probably undergo the same kind of rapid changes as east Asia did."[23]

Drivers of population change

The population of a country or area grows or declines through the interaction of three demographic drivers: fertility, mortality, and migration.[2]

Fertility

Map of countries by fertility rate (2020), according to the Population Reference Bureau

Fertility is expressed as the total fertility rate (TFR), a measure of the number of children on average that a woman will bear in her lifetime. With longevity trending towards uniform and stable values worldwide, the main driver of future population growth will be the evolution of the fertility rate.[24]

Where fertility is high, demographers generally assume that fertility will decline and eventually stabilize at about two children per woman.[2]

During the period 2015–2020, the average world fertility rate was 2.5 children per woman, about half the level in 1950–1955 (5 children per woman). In the medium variant, global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.2 in 2045-2050 and to 1.8 in 2095–2100.[24][25]

Mortality

If the mortality rate is relatively high and the resulting life expectancy is therefore relatively low, changes in mortality can have a material impact on population growth. Where the mortality rate is low and life expectancy has therefore risen, a change in mortality will have much less of an effect.[2]

Because child mortality has declined substantially over the last several decades,[2] global life expectancy at birth, has risen from 48 years in 1950–1955 to 67 years in 2000–2005, is expected to keep rising to reach 77 years in 2045–2050 and 83 years in 2095–2100. In the more Developed regions, the projected increase is from 76 years during the period 2000–2005 to 84 years during the period 2045–2050 and 90 in 2095–2100. Among the Less Developed countries, where life expectancy during the period 2000–2005 was just under 66 years, it is expected to be 76 years in 2045–2050 and 81 years by 2100.[26][27]

Migration

Migration can have a significant effect on population change. Global South-South migration accounts for 38% of total migration, and Global South-North for 34%.[28] For example, the United Nations reports that during the period 2010–2020, fourteen countries will have seen a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while ten countries will have seen a net outflow of similar proportions. The largest migratory outflows have been in response to demand for workers in other countries (Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines) or to insecurity in the home country (Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela). Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Russian Federation, Serbia and Ukraine have experienced a net inflow of migrants over the decade, helping to offset population losses caused by a negative natural increase (births minus deaths).[29]

World population projections

Estimates of population levels in different continents between 1950 and 2050, according to the United Nations (2011 edition). The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.
UN estimates (as of 2017) for world population by continent in 2000 and in 2050 (pie chart size to scale).[21]
     Asia      Africa      Europe      Latin America      Northern America      Oceania

This section describes near-term population changes, up to the year 2050, and long-term population changes, out to the year 2100.

Up to 2050

The median scenario of the UN's 2022 World Population Prospects predicts the following populations per region in 2050 compared to population in 2000, and shows the differing growth rates for each over the first half of this century.[25][6]

Projected regional population (billions)
20002050Growth %/yr
Asia3.75.3+43%+0.7%
Africa0.82.5+212%+2.3%
Europe0.70.70%0.0%
Latin America & the Caribbean0.50.7+40%+0.7%
Northern America0.30.4+33%+0.6%
Oceania0.030.06+100%+1.4%
World6.19.7+60%+0.9%

After 2050

Projections of population beyond the year 2050 tend to vary depending on the organization making them because each make their own assumptions of the drivers of population change: fertility, mortality and migration.

United Nations projections

The UN Population Division report of 2022 projects world population to continue growing after 2050, although at a steadily decreasing rate, to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086, and then to start a slow decline to about 10.3 billion in 2100 with a growth rate at that time of -0.1%.[6]

This projected growth of population, like all others, depends on assumptions about vital rates. For example, the chart below shows that the UN Population Division assumes that Total fertility rate (TFR), which has been steadily declining since 1963, will continue to decline, at varying paces depending on circumstances in individual regions, to a below-replacement level of 1.8 by 2100. Between now (2020) and 2100, regions with TFR currently below this rate, for example Europe, will see TFR rise. Regions with TFR above this rate will see TFR continue to decline.[25][24]

Total Fertility Rate for Six Regions and the World, 1950-2100

Other projections

Other organizations have published different forecasts.

  • A 2020 study published by The Lancet from researchers funded by the Global Burden of Disease Study promotes a lower growth scenario, projecting that world population will peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion and then decline to 8.8 billion in 2100. This projection assumes further advancement of women's rights globally. In this case TFR is assumed to decline more rapidly than the UN's projection, to reach 1.7 in 2100.[30]
  • An analysis from the Wittgenstein Center predicts global population to peak in 2070 at 9.4 billion and then decline to 9.0 billion in 2100.[31]
  • The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and the Insurance Institute of South Africa (IIASA) project lower fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2100 than the UN. By 2100, the UN projects the population in SSA will reach 3.8 billion, IHME projects 3.1 billion, and IIASA projects 2.6 billion. IHME and IIASA incorporate women's educational attainment in their models of fertility, and in the case of IHME, also consider met need for family planning.[10]

Other assumptions can produce other results.  Some of the authors of the 2004 UN report assumed that life expectancy would rise slowly and continuously. The projections in the report assume this with no upper limit, though at a slowing pace depending on circumstances in individual countries. By 2100, the report assumed life expectancy to be from 66 to 97 years, and by 2300 from 87 to 106 years, depending on the country. Based on that assumption, they expect that rising life expectancy will produce small but continuing population growth by the end of the projections, ranging from 0.03 to 0.07 percent annually. The hypothetical feasibility (and wide availability) of life extension by technological means would further contribute to long term (beyond 2100) population growth.[32][33][34]

Evolutionary biology also suggests the demographic transition may reverse itself and global population may continue to grow in the long term.[35] In addition, recent evidence suggests birth rates may be rising in the 21st century in the developed world.[36] Some researchers, such as Jane N. O'Sullivan, contend that many recent population projections have underestimated population growth. She notes that in the last decades, "support for family planning has waned, and global fertility decline has decelerated as a result."[37]

Growth regions

The table below shows that from 2020 to 2050 and beyond to 2100, the bulk of the world's population growth is projected to take place in Africa. Of the additional 1.9 billion people projected between 2020 and 2050, 1.2 billion will be added in Africa, 0.7 billion in Asia and zero in the rest of the world. Africa's share of global population is projected to grow from 17% in 2020 to 25% in 2050 and 38% by 2100, while the share of Asia will fall from 60% in 2020 to 55% in 2050 and 45% in 2100.[5][6] The strong growth of the African population will happen regardless of the rate of decrease of fertility, because of the high proportion of young people already living today, who are in, or approaching, their fertile years. For example, the UN projects that the population of Nigeria will surpass that of the United States by about 2050.[6]

Projected regional populations
Region 2020 2050 Change
2020–50

(bn)

 2100 Change

2020–2100

(bn)

bn % of
Total		 bn % of
Total		 bn % of
Total
Africa 1.3 17 2.5 25 +1.2 3.9 38 +2.6
Asia 4.6 60 5.3 55 +0.7 4.7 45 +0.1
Other 1.9 23 1.9 20 0.0 1.8 17 -0.1
More Developed 1.3 17 1.3 13 0.0 1.2 12 -0.1
Less Developed 6.5 83 8.4 87 +1.9 9.2 88 +2.7
World 7.8 100 9.7 100 +1.9 10.4 100 +2.6


The population of the More Developed regions is slated to remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2-1.3 billion for the remainder of the 21st century. All population growth comes from the Less Developed regions.[5][6]

The table below breaks out the UN's future population growth predictions by region[5][6]

Projected annual % changes in population for three periods in the future
Region 2020–25

(%/yr)

 2045–50

(%/yr)

 2095–2100

(%/yr)

Africa 2.5 1.7 0.4
Asia 0.7 0.2 −0.4
Europe -0.1 −0.3 −0.3
Latin America & the Caribbean 0.7 0.2 −0.5
Northern America 0.5 0.2 0.1
Oceania 1.2 0.7 0.2
World 0.9 0.5 -0.1

The UN projects that between 2020 and 2100 there will be declines in population growth in all six regions, that by 2100 three of them will be undergoing population decline, and the world will have entered a period of global population decline.

Most populous nations by 2050 and 2100

The UN Population Division has calculated the future population of the world's countries, based on current demographic trends. In 2022, world population reached 8 billion. The UN's 2022 report projects world population to be 9.7 billion people in 2050, and about 10.3 billion by 2100. The following table shows the largest 14 countries by population as of 2020, 2050 and 2100 to show how the rankings will change between now and the end of this century.[5][6]

Projected population growth of the top 14 countries in 2020, 2050, and 2100
Country Population (millions) Rank
2020 2050 2100 2020 2050 2100
China 1,424 1,317 771 1 2 2
India 1,390 1,668 1,533 2 1 1
United States 336 375 394 3 3 6
Indonesia 271 317 297 4 6 8
Pakistan 225 366 487 5 5 4
Brazil 212 231 185 6 7 11
Nigeria 206 375 546 7 4 3
Bangladesh 166 204 177 8 10 13
Russian Federation 146 133 112 9 14 20
Mexico 126 144 116 10 13 18
Japan 126 104 74 11 17 33
Ethiopia 115 213 323 12 9 7
Philippines 111 157 180 13 12 12
Egypt 106 160 205 14 12 10
Democratic Republic of the Congo 91 215 431 16 8 5
Tanzania 61 129 244 24 15 9
Niger 24 66 166 56 24 14
World 7,805 9,687 10,355

From 2020 to 2050, the eight highlighted countries are expected to account for about half of the world's projected population increase: India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Egypt, and Indonesia.[5][6]

Population projections of the largest metropolitan areas

Large urban areas are hubs of economic development and innovation, with larger cities underpinning regional economies and local and global sustainability initiatives. Currently, 757 million humans live in the 101 largest cities;[38] these cities are home to 11% of the world's population.[38] By the end of the century, the world population is projected to grow, with estimates ranging from 6.9 billion to 13.1 billion;[38] the percentage of people living in the 101 largest cities is estimated to be 15% to 23%.[38]

The following 101 metropolitan areas with the largest population projections for the years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, according to professors Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, are listed below.[38]

Projected populations in millions
RankCityPop. 2025CityPop. 2050CityPop. 2075CityPop. 2100
1Japan Tokyo36.40India Mumbai42.40Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa58.42Nigeria Lagos88.30
2India Mumbai26.39India Delhi36.16India Mumbai57.86Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa83.53
3India Delhi22.50Bangladesh Dhaka35.19Nigeria Lagos57.20Tanzania Dar es Salaam73.68
4Bangladesh Dhaka22.02Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa35.00India Delhi49.34India Mumbai67.24
5Brazil São Paulo21.43India Kolkata33.04Bangladesh Dhaka46.22India Delhi57.33
6Mexico Mexico City21.01Nigeria Lagos32.63India Kolkata45.09Sudan Khartoum56.59
7United States New York City20.63Japan Tokyo32.62Pakistan Karachi43.37Niger Niamey56.15
8India Kolkata20.56Pakistan Karachi31.70Tanzania Dar es Salaam37.49Bangladesh Dhaka54.25
9China Shanghai19.41United States New York City24.77Egypt Cairo33.00India Kolkata52.40
10Pakistan Karachi19.10Mexico Mexico City24.33Philippines Manila32.75Afghanistan Kabul50.30
11Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa16.76Egypt Cairo24.03Afghanistan Kabul32.67Pakistan Karachi49.06
12Nigeria Lagos15.80Philippines Manila23.55Sudan Khartoum30.68Kenya Nairobi46.66
13Egypt Cairo15.56Brazil São Paulo22.82Japan Tokyo28.92Malawi Lilongwe41.38
14Philippines Manila14.81China Shanghai21.32Kenya Nairobi28.42Malawi Blantyre40.91
15China Beijing14.55Pakistan Lahore17.45United States New York City27.92Egypt Cairo40.54
16Argentina Buenos Aires13.77AfghanistanKabul17.09Iraq Baghdad24.39Uganda Kampala40.14
17United States Los Angeles13.67United States Los Angeles16.42Mexico Mexico City24.18Philippines Manila39.96
18Brazil Rio de Janeiro13.41India Chennai16.28Pakistan Lahore23.88Zambia Lusaka37.74
19Indonesia Jakarta12.36Sudan Khartoum16.00Ethiopia Addis Ababa23.81Somalia Mogadishu36.37
20Turkey Istanbul12.10Tanzania Dar es Salaam15.97India Chennai22.21Ethiopia Addis Ababa35.82
21China Guangzhou11.84China Beijing15.97India Bengaluru21.31Iraq Baghdad34.10
22Japan Osaka-Kobe11.37Indonesia Jakarta15.92Brazil São Paulo21.28United States New York City30.19
23Russia Moscow10.53India Bengaluru15.62China Shanghai21.05Chad N'Djamena28.81
24Pakistan Lahore11.37Argentina Buenos Aires15.55Niger Niamey20.37Nigeria Kano28.28
25China Shenzhen10.20Iraq Baghdad15.09Uganda Kampala20.23Yemen Sana'a27.21
26India Chennai10.13India Hyderabad14.61India Hyderabad19.94Pakistan Lahore27.05
27France Paris10.04Angola Luanda14.30Angola Luanda19.65India Chennai25.81
28United States Chicago9.93Brazil Rio de Janeiro14.29United States Los Angeles18.51Japan Tokyo25.63
29Iran Tehran9.81Kenya Nairobi14.25Nigeria Kano17.69India Bengaluru24.77
30South Korea Seoul9.74Turkey Istanbul14.18Indonesia Jakarta17.55Nigeria Ibadan23.68
31India Bengaluru9.72Ethiopia Addis Ababa13.21India Ahmedabad16.93Angola Luanda23.55
32Peru Lima9.60China Guangzhou13.00Yemen Sana'a16.69India Hyderabad23.17
33Colombia Bogotá9.60India Ahmedabad12.43Brazil Rio de Janeiro16.56Mali Bamako22.95
34China Wuhan9.34Bangladesh Chittagong12.21Argentina Buenos Aires16.40Mexico Mexico City22.22
35China Tianjin9.24United States Chicago11.93Bangladesh Chittagong16.04Senegal Dakar21.18
36India Hyderabad9.09Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City11.86Somalia Mogadishu15.94Mozambique Maputo21.07
37United Kingdom London8.62Peru Lima11.57China Beijing15.78China Shanghai20.79
38Thailand Bangkok8.33Colombia Bogotá11.56Ivory Coast Abidjan15.52Burkina Faso Ouagadougou20.63
39Hong Kong Hong Kong8.31China Shenzhen11.20Malawi Lilongwe15.32Madagascar Antananarivo20.53
40China Chongqing8.28France Paris11.12Malawi Blantyre15.06United States Los Angeles20.01
41Angola Luanda8.24Thailand Bangkok11.08India Pune14.91Brazil Rio de Janeiro19.84
42Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City8.15Iran Tehran11.00Nigeria Ibadan14.81India Ahmedabad19.71
43Iraq Baghdad8.06India Pune10.92Turkey Istanbul14.68Ivory Coast Abidjan19.70
44Sudan Khartoum7.94Ivory Coast Abidjan10.71Senegal Dakar14.56Brazil São Paulo19.12
45India Ahmedabad7.74Nigeria Kano10.44Zambia Lusaka14.52Bangladesh Chittagong18.82
46Bangladesh Chittagong7.64China Wuhan10.26Chad N'djamena14.48Nigeria Abuja18.58
47AfghanistanKabul7.18Russia Moscow10.24Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City14.22Rwanda Kigali18.30
48Chile Santiago7.03Japan Osaka-Kobe10.19Mali Bamako13.54Indonesia Jakarta18.22
49India Pune6.80China Tianjin10.15United States Chicago13.44India Pune17.32
50Vietnam Hanoi6.75Yemen Sana'a10.05China Guangzhou12.84Guinea Conakry17.32
51Brazil Belo Horizonte6.75Vietnam Hanoi9.83Thailand Bangkok12.55Argentina Buenos Aires16.99
52Chile Santiago6.31United Kingdom London9.75India Surat12.51China Beijing15.58
53Saudi Arabia Riyadh6.28South Korea Seoul9.47Peru Lima12.44Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City15.53
54United States Miami6.27Hong Kong Hong Kong9.47Madagascar Antananarivo12.40Turkey Istanbul14.79
55China Dongguan6.16Uganda Kampala9.43Egypt Alexandria11.99Egypt Alexandria14.72
56China Shenyang6.16India Surat9.17Colombia Bogota11.89Democratic Republic of the Congo Lubumbashi14.66
57Ethiopia Addis Ababa6.16China Chongqing9.09Vietnam Hanoi11.79United States Chicago14.54
58United States Philadelphia6.13Nigeria Ibadan8.75Nigeria Abuja11.75India Surat14.53
59Ivory Coast Abidjan6.03Egypt Alexandria8.73Burkina Faso Ouagadougou11.70Democratic Republic of the Congo Mbuji-Mayi14.20
60Canada Toronto5.95Senegal Dakar8.52France Paris11.64Kenya Mombasa14.01
61Spain Madrid5.94Myanmar Yangon8.44China Shenzhen11.06Cambodia Phnom Penh13.88
62Kenya Nairobi5.87Saudi Arabia Riyadh8.09Mozambique Maputo10.92Nigeria Kaduna13.20
63Myanmar Yangon5.87Mali Bamako7.63Guinea Conakry10.63Vietnam Hanoi12.87
64India Surat5.70United States Miami7.53Hong Kong Hong Kong10.41Peru Lima12.81
65Tanzania Dar es Salaam5.69Chile Santiago7.49Iran Tehran10.36China Guangzhou12.68
66Egypt Alexandria5.65India Kanpur7.39Myanmar Yangon10.26Thailand Bangkok12.14
67Turkey Ankara5.50United States Philadelphia7.36China Wuhan10.13France Paris11.86
68United States Dallas–Fort Worth5.42Madagascar Antananarivo7.26India Kanpur10.09India Kanpur11.73
69Mexico Tlaquepaque5.37Brazil Belo Horizonte7.19United Kingdom London10.09Yemen Al Hudaydah11.51
70Mexico Tonalá5.37Pakistan Faisalabad7.11China Tianjin10.03 Hong Kong11.46
71Mexico Zapopan5.37Canada Toronto7.04Rwanda Kigali9.79Morocco Casablanca11.42
72China Chengdu5.32Nigeria Abuja6.94Pakistan Faisalabad9.73Liberia Monrovia11.21
73China Xi'an5.23India Jaipur6.91Democratic Republic of the Congo Lubumbashi9.57Colombia Bogotá11.20
74Spain Barcelona5.18Burkina Faso Ouagadougou6.90Russia Moscow9.51Nigeria Benin City11.14
75United States Atlanta5.15Niger Niamey6.79India Jaipur9.43Egypt Giza11.00
76China Guiyang5.11Chile Santiago6.77Democratic Republic of the Congo Mbuji-Mayi9.27Pakistan Faisalabad11.00
77Singapore Singapore5.10China Dongguan6.76Japan Osaka-Kobe9.03Ghana Accra10.99
78Nigeria Kano5.06China Shenyang6.76Saudi Arabia Riyadh9.00India Jaipur10.95
79United States Houston5.05Somalia Mogadishu6.57China Chongqing8.98China Shenzhen10.92
80Mexico Guadalajara4.97Egypt Giza6.52Egypt Giza8.96Yemen Taiz10.82
81Mexico Guadalajara4.97Spain Madrid6.52Cambodia Phnom Penh8.85Togo Lomé10.21
82Mexico Guadalupe4.95United States Dallas-Fort Worth6.51India Lucknow8.65India Lucknow10.05
83United States Washington, D.C.4.89India Lucknow6.34Kenya Mombasa8.53China Wuhan10.00
84Australia Sydney4.83Mexico Tlaquepaque6.22United States Miami8.49China Tianjin9.90
85China Nanjing4.77Mexico Tonalá6.22United States Philadelphia8.30Cameroon Douala9.68
86China Harbin4.70Mexico Zapopan6.22Nigeria Kaduna8.26United Kingdom London9.56
87Brazil Porto Alegre4.63United States Atlanta6.19Ghana Accra7.98Saudi Arabia Riyadh9.40
88United States Detroit4.61Democratic Republic of the Congo Lubumbashi6.15India Nagpur7.86Nigeria Port Harcourt9.40
89India Kanpur4.60Guinea Conakry6.14Canada Toronto7.81United States Miami9.18
90Brazil Brasilia4.58United States Houston6.06South Korea Seoul7.67India Nagpur9.13
91Algeria Algiers4.50United States Boston6.04Syria Aleppo7.37United States Philadelphia8.98
92Russia St. Petersburg4.48Democratic Republic of the Congo Mbuji-Mayi5.95United States Dallas–Fort Worth7.34Iraq Mosul8.87
93Mexico Monterrey4.41Ghana Accra5.94Togo Lomé7.25China Chongqing8.87
94Yemen Sana'a4.38Syria Aleppo5.90Liberia Monrovia7.08Russia Moscow8.42
95Brazil Recife4.35United States Washington, D.C.5.87Cameroon Douala7.07Syria Aleppo8.37
96China Changchun4.34China Chengdu5.84Yemen Al-Hudaydah7.06Canada Toronto8.33
97India Jaipur4.30Australia Sydney5.82India Patna7.03India Patna8.17
98Pakistan Faisalabad4.28Mexico Guadalajara5.76Chile Santiago6.98Iran Tehran8.17
99Australia Melbourne4.24India Nagpur5.76United States Atlanta6.97Japan Osaka-Kobe8.00
100Nigeria Ibadan4.23China Xi'an5.75Pakistan Rawalpindi6.97United States Dallas-Fort Worth7.93
101Senegal Dakar4.23Mexico Guadalupe5.73Nigeria Benin City6.96Pakistan Rawalpindi7.88

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Population Projections". United States Census Bureau.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Kaneda, Toshiko (June 2014). "Understanding Population Projections: Assumptions Behind the Numbers" (PDF). Population Reference Bureau.
  3. 1 2 3 4 Roser, Max (2013-05-09). "Future Population Growth". Our World in Data.
  4. ↑ Roser, Max; Ritchie, Hannah (March 18, 2023). "Two centuries of rapid global population growth will come to an end". Our World in Data.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Total Population as of 1 January (thousands) column". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 "World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Variant tab, Total Population as of 1 January (thousands) column". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022.
  7. ↑ Vollset, Stein Emil; Goren, Emily; Yuan, Chun-Wei; Cao, Jackie; Smith, Amanda E.; Hsiao, Thomas; Bisignano, Catherine; Azhar, Gulrez S.; Castro, Emma; Chalek, Julian; Dolgert, Andrew J. (2020-10-17). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study". The Lancet. 396 (10258): 1285–1306. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2. ISSN 0140-6736. PMC 7561721. PMID 32679112.
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  10. 1 2 Kaneda, Toshiko; Falk, Marissa; Patierno, Kaitlyn (March 27, 2021). "Understanding and Comparing Population Projections in Sub-Saharan Africa". Population Reference Bureau.
  11. ↑ "World Population Prospects 2022 , Graphs / Profiles". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022.
  12. ↑ Day, Jeremiah (1831). The Principles of Plane Trigonometry, Mensuration, Navigation and Surveying. H. Howe.
  13. ↑ Lawson, John Parker (1850). The Bible Cyclopedia: Containing the Biography, Geography and Natural History of the Holy Scriptures. Fullarton.
  14. ↑ Walter Grieling: Wie werden wir leben? ("How are we going to live?") Econ publishers, Munich 1954
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  16. ↑ United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population to 2300. 2004. Executive Summary, p. 1.
  17. ↑ Randers, Jørgen (2012). 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing. p. 62.
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  19. ↑ "World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision". The United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs. 17 June 2013.
  20. ↑ Gerland, P.; Raftery, A. E.; Ev Ikova, H.; Li, N.; Gu, D.; Spoorenberg, T.; Alkema, L.; Fosdick, B. K.; Chunn, J.; Lalic, N.; Bay, G.; Buettner, T.; Heilig, G. K.; Wilmoth, J. (September 14, 2014). "World population stabilization unlikely this century". Science. AAAS. 346 (6206): 234–7. Bibcode:2014Sci...346..234G. doi:10.1126/science.1257469. ISSN 1095-9203. PMC 4230924. PMID 25301627.
  21. 1 2 "World Population Prospects 2017, Archive, File: 2017 Revision". United Nations Population Division. 2017. Retrieved 2017-11-29.
  22. ↑ "World Population Prospects 2022" (PDF). United Nations. 2022.
  23. 1 2 3 "The world's peak population may be smaller than expected". The Economist. April 5, 2023.
  24. 1 2 3 "World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Variant tab, Total Fertility Rate column". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022.
  25. 1 2 3 "World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Total Fertility Rate column". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022.
  26. ↑ "World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Life Expectancy at Birth, both sexes (years) column". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022.
  27. ↑ "World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Variant tab, Life Expectancy at Birth, both sexes (years) column". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022.
  28. ↑ "World Bank Migration and Remittances Factbook 2016" (PDF). World Bank Open Knowledge Archive. 2016.
  29. ↑ "Growing at a slower pace, world population is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 11 billion around 2100". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. June 17, 2019.
  30. ↑ Vollset, Stein Emil; Goren, Emily; Yuan, Chun-Wei (July 14, 2020). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study". The Lancet.
  31. ↑ "Projected world population by level of education". Our World In Data. 2016.
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  33. ↑ Bavestrello, Giorgio; Sommer, Christian; Sarà, Michele (1992). "Bi-directional conversion in Turritopsis nutricula (Hydrozoa)". Scientia Marina. 56 (2–3): 137–140.
  34. ↑ Martínez, DE (1998). "Mortality patterns suggest lack of senescence in hydra". Exp Gerontol. 33 (3): 217–225. doi:10.1016/S0531-5565(97)00113-7. PMID 9615920. S2CID 2009972. In an essay within the 2004 U.N. report, Tim Dyson said: "A rapid increase in life expectancy, which would raise the population pyramids, seems within reach, since it responds to an old and powerful demand for longevity."
  35. ↑ Jason Collins (January 2019). "The heritability of fertility makes world population stabilization unlikely in the foreseeable future". Evolution and Human Behavior. 40 (1): 105–111. doi:10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2018.09.001. S2CID 149854505.
  36. ↑ Can we be sure the world's population will stop rising?, BBC News, 13 October 2012
  37. ↑ O'Sullivan, Jane Nancy (2023). "Demographic Delusions: World Population Growth Is Exceeding Most Projections and Jeopardising Scenarios for Sustainable Futures". World. 4 (3): 545–568. doi:10.3390/world4030034.
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