Coalition mistakes, Taliban start to re-organize

After initial success, the US lacked an obvious goal in Afghanistan beyond the counter-terrorism objectives of finding senior Taliban and al-Qaeda leaders. Nation-building was initially opposed by the Bush administration, but as the US stayed, it slowly crept into the rationale for staying. In April 2002, Bush made a speech expressing a desire to rebuild Afghanistan. The US also sought to instill democracy and women's rights as a moral matter. The international community contributed to the development effort in Afghanistan, which focused on aid and creating institutions to run the country. US reconstruction efforts also focused on improving education, health care, and community development. The US also supported and funded the creation of an Afghan army in early 2002. However, the army was built slowly due to competing interests and a US belief that the Taliban were no longer a strong threat. Some in the Bush administration preferred to use the Northern Alliance and warlords as the military instead of creating a new military. The army became an afterthought and was poorly trained and equipped, which further enabled the Taliban.^{[120]: 89–105}

Some members of the Taliban reached out to Karzai to open negotiations several times between 2002 and 2004, but the US was adamantly against this and ensured that all top Taliban leaders were blacklisted, such that the Afghan Government could not negotiate with them. Historian Malkasian argues that negotiations with the Taliban would have been low cost but highly effective at this stage and chocks it up to US overconfidence and hubris, and notes that all the information that the Taliban could resurge was available but ignored.^{[120]: 106–111} Some Taliban leaders considered joining the political process, with meetings on the issue until 2004, though these did not result in a decision to do so.^[146]: 19

Map detailing the spread of the Taliban insurgency, 2002–2006

The first attempt at a larger organization of Taliban groups after the invasion occurred in April 2002 in the country's south. A shura was established by former mid-level Taliban officials in Gardi Jangal a refugee camp near the Helmand border. It operated in the core southern provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Zabul, and Uruzgan. It was composed of 23 groups of about 50 individuals each, for a total of around 1,200. In the North Waziristan District of Pakistan, Jalaluddin Haqqani had started organizing the Haqqani network after exiling there in 2001. In early 2002 their manpower was estimated at 1,400 and had a presence in Paktia Province and Khost Province in the second half of 2002 with limited activity. They were joined by members of Al-Qaeda. Operation Jacana & Operation Condor, among others, tried to flush out the Taliban with varying results.^{[146]: 25–29}

From 2002 to 2005, the Taliban reorganized and planned a resurgence. Pressure on Coalition forces to hunt down terrorists led to excesses and generated some popular support for the Taliban. Coalition troops would go on missions with questionable intelligence, at one point falling prey to a false tip provided by a target's political opponents. Few high-level Taliban or al-Qaeda leaders were caught. Those captured were predominantly low-level Taliban operatives who had little information on al-Qaeda. Numerous civilians were killed in operations, including a wedding which was misinterpreted as a Taliban gathering. Repeated errors by Coalition forces drove Taliban recruitment. Many Taliban leaders who had given up arms to leave peacefully, especially after being promised amnesty by President Karzai, were increasingly harassed by the US and elements of the Afghan government. By 2004, most Taliban leaders in Afghanistan had fled back to Pakistan, where the remnants of the Taliban were hiding. Malkasian argues that the US provided significant momentum to the Taliban by its own missteps, especially by focusing on aggressive counter-terrorism and vengeance for 9/11. He further argues that these actions alone did not restart the conflict because the Taliban would have re-emerged regardless because of leaders like Mullah Omar and Jalaluddin Haqqani who had never put down arms.^{[120]: 119–123}

Fighting increases

The Taliban undertook relatively few actions until 2005. Pamphlets by Taliban and other groups turned up strewn in towns and the countryside in early 2003, urging Islamic faithful to rise up against US forces and other foreign soldiers in a holy war.^[147] In May 2003, the Taliban Supreme Court's chief justice, Abdul Salam, proclaimed that the Taliban were back, regrouped, rearmed, and ready for guerrilla war to expel US forces from Afghanistan.^[148] Meanwhile, American attention was diverted from Afghanistan when US forces invaded Iraq in March 2003.^[149]

US troops board a helicopter in Zabul province, 2003

Privately, the Taliban were preparing a grand offensive against the Coalition. It was to be several years in the making so that enough strength could be gathered. Mullah Dadullah was put in charge of the offensive. Dadullah was effective but cruel. He was responsible for introducing suicide bombing into wide use around 2004, as previously the Taliban had not been enamored by suicide or taking civilian lives; that had been an al-Qaeda tactic. A network of madrassas in Pakistan catering to Afghan refugees provided a steady stream of extremist recruits willing to die.^{[120]: 125–127}

As the summer of 2003 continued, Taliban attacks gradually increased in frequency. Dozens of Afghan government soldiers, NGO humanitarian workers, and several US soldiers died in the raids, ambushes, and rocket attacks. Besides guerrilla attacks, Taliban fighters began building up forces in the district of Dey Chopan District in Zabul Province. The Taliban decided to make a stand there. Over the course of the summer, up to 1,000 guerrillas moved there. Over 220 people, including several dozen Afghan police, were killed in August 2003.^[150] On 11 August 2003, NATO assumed control of ISAF.^[151]

3rd Battalion, 3rd Marine Regiment at the Khost-Gardez Pass, 2004

Taliban leader Mullah Omar reorganized the movement, and in 2003 launched an insurgency against the government and ISAF.^[152][153] From the second half of 2003 and through 2004 operations started intensifying, with night letters followed by kidnappings and assassinations of government officials and collaborating village elders by 2005, with the former leaving villages in fear. Government schools and clinics were also burned down.^[146]: 34

Operation Asbury Park cleared out Taliban forces in the Dey Chopan District during the summer of 2004.^[154] In late 2004, the then hidden Taliban leader Mullah Omar announced an insurgency against "America and its puppets" (referring to transitional Afghan government forces) to "regain the sovereignty of our country."^[155] The 2004 Afghan presidential election was a major target of Taliban, though only 20 districts and 200 villages elsewhere were claimed to have been successfully prevented from voting. Karzai was elected president of the country, now named the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.^[146]: 40

A US Navy Corpsman searches for Taliban fighters in Mihtarlam, spring of 2005

From late June through mid-July 2005, United States Navy Seals carried out Operation Red Wings as a joint military operation in Kunar Province. The mission intended to disrupt local Taliban led by Ahmad Shah, hopefully bringing stability and facilitating the Afghan Parliament elections scheduled for September 2005. The operation was a pyrrhic victory for the Coalition, with only one survivor (dramatized in the 2013 film Lone Survivor) and 19 dead.^{[156][157][158]} Operation Whalers would finish the job several weeks later. Taliban activity dropped significantly and Shah was seriously wounded. Shah was not able to undertake any significant operations subsequent to Operation Whalers in Kunar or neighboring provinces.^[157][159]

The Taliban regained control over several villages in the south by the end of 2005, mostly because the villages were fed up with the lack of help from the government and hoped life would be better under the Taliban. Years of planning were coming to fruition for the Taliban. By comparison, the Government was in a very weak position. The police were deeply underfunded, and the average district had only 50 officers. Some districts had no Government presence at all. Most of the country's militias (with a strength of ~100,000) had been demobilized due to international pressure to create an army, but it was still weak. Combined with an increase in tribal feuding, the conditions were perfect for a Taliban comeback.^{[120]: 134–136}

Coalition diversifies, Taliban offensive

An Apache helicopter provides protection from the air, Lwar Kowndalan in Kandahar, October 2005

From January 2006, a multinational ISAF contingent started to replace US troops in southern Afghanistan. The UK formed the core of the force, along with Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, and Estonia.^{[162][163][164][165][166]} In January 2006, NATO's focus in southern Afghanistan was to form Provincial Reconstruction Teams. Local Taliban figures pledged to resist.^[167] Since Canada wanted to deploy in Kandahar, the UK got Helmand province. Helmand was a center of poppy production, so it seemed a good region for the anti-narcotic focused UK. In hindsight, the UK were a poor choice. Pashtun Helmandis had never forgotten the 1880 Battle of Maiwand near Helmand province; a popular rumour was that the British sought to avenge their loss in that battle. The British had long since forgotten the war, but it proved a source of significant resistance from the Afghan population.^{[120]: 138–142}

Local intelligence suggested that the Taliban were going to wage a brutal campaign in the summer of 2006. Coalition generals sent this info up the chain of command, but decision-makers ignored warnings. The US was distracted in Iraq, and Secretary of State Rumsfeld was more interested in making the Afghan army affordable than effective. Of the 70,000 soldiers the Afghan army was supposed to have, only 26,000 had been trained and retained.^{[120]: 138–142}

Spring and summer action in 2006 by the Coalition included Operation Mountain Thrust, Operation Medusa, a Dutch/Australian offensive, the Battle of Panjwaii, Operation Mountain Fury and Operation Falcon Summit. The Coalition achieved tactical victories and area denial, but the Taliban were not completely defeated.

A US Army soldier from 10th Mountain Division, patrols Aranas

On 29 May 2006, a US military truck that was part of a convoy in Kabul lost control and plowed into civilian vehicles, killing one person and injuring six. The surrounding crowd got angry and a riot arose, lasting all day ending with 20 dead and 160 injured. When stone-throwing and gunfire had come from a crowd of some 400 men, the US troops had used their weapons "to defend themselves" while leaving the scene, a US military spokesman said. A correspondent for the Financial Times in Kabul suggested that this was the outbreak of "a ground swell of resentment" and "growing hostility to foreigners" that had been growing and building since 2004.^[168][169]

UK actions in early 2007 included Operation Volcano, Operation Achilles, and Operation Lastay Kulang. The UK Ministry of Defence also announced its intention to bring British troop levels in the country up to 7,700.^[170]

Swedish Army medic in the Mazar-e Sharif region

On 4 March 2007, US Marines killed at least 12 civilians and injured 33 in Shinwar district, Nangarhar,^[171] in a response to a bomb ambush. The event became known as the "Shinwar massacre."^[172] The 120 member Marine unit responsible for the attack were ordered to leave the country because the incident damaged the unit's relations with the local population.^[173]

During the summer, NATO forces achieved tactical victories at the Battle of Chora in Orūzgān, where Dutch and Australian ISAF forces were deployed. The Battle of Musa Qala took place in December. Afghan units were the principal fighting force, supported by British forces.^[174] Taliban forces were forced out of the town.

US and British troops during a patrol in Helmand Province

On 13 June 2008, Taliban fighters demonstrated their ongoing strength, liberating all prisoners in Kandahar jail. The operation freed 1200 prisoners, 400 of whom were Taliban, causing a major embarrassment for NATO.^[175] By the end of 2008, the Taliban apparently had severed remaining ties with al-Qaeda.^[176] According to senior US military intelligence officials, perhaps fewer than 100 members of al-Qaeda remained in Afghanistan.^[177]

June 2009 brought Operation Strike of the Sword in Helmand.^[178] It followed a British-led operation named Operation Panther's Claw in the same region, which was aimed to secure various canal and river crossings to establish a long-term ISAF presence.^[179]

On 4 September 2009, during the Kunduz Province Campaign a devastating NATO air raid was conducted 7 kilometers southwest of Kunduz where Taliban fighters had hijacked civilian supply trucks, killing up to 179 people, including over 100 civilians.^[180]

In December 2009, an attack on Forward Operating Base Chapman, used by the CIA to gather information and to coordinate drone attacks against Taliban leaders, killed eight working for the CIA.^[181]

Troop surge

Development of ISAF troop strength

In March 2007, the US deployed some 3,500 more troops, though the pace of deployment was slow due to American priorities in Iraq.^[182][183] In the first five months of 2008, the number of US troops in Afghanistan increased by over 80% with a surge of 21,643 more troops, bringing the total from 26,607 in January to 48,250 in June.^[184] In September 2008, President Bush announced the withdrawal of over 8,000 from Iraq and a further increase of up to 4,500 in Afghanistan.^[185] The same month, the UK lost its 100th serviceperson.^[186]

January 2009 brought a change in American leadership, with the election of President Barack Obama. That month US soldiers, alongside Afghan Federal Guards, moved into the provinces of Logar, Wardak, and Kunar. The troops were the first wave of an expected surge of reinforcements originally ordered by President Bush and increased by President Obama.^[187] In mid-February 2009, it was announced that 17,000 additional troops would be deployed in two brigades and support troops; the 2nd Marine Expeditionary Brigade of about 3,500 and the 5th Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division, a Stryker Brigade with about 4,000.^[188] ISAF commander General David McKiernan had called for as many as 30,000 additional troops, effectively doubling the number of troops.^[189] On 23 September, a classified assessment by General McChrystal included his conclusion that a successful counterinsurgency strategy would require 500,000 troops and five years.^[190]

On 1 December 2009, Obama announced that the US would send 30,000 more troops.^[191] Antiwar organizations in the US responded quickly, and cities throughout the US saw protests on 2 December.^[192] Many protesters compared the decision to deploy more troops in Afghanistan to the expansion of the Vietnam War under the Johnson administration.^[193]

US action into Pakistan

A German Bundeswehr soldier, part of ISAF's Regional Command North at Camp Marmal

In the early years of the war, Pakistan had been seen as a firm ally, and little concern had been given to its support of the Taliban. Pakistan had also helped capture numerous top al-Qaeda leaders, including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. But internally, Pakistan was providing significant funding, access to safe houses, and political support to the Taliban. Public opinion in Pakistan heavily favored the Taliban, and the US invasion was viewed very negatively. The government was in no position to expel the Taliban, lest it starts a conflict within its already fragile country. Thus the Taliban continued to use Pakistan as a base of operations and a safe haven to rebuild their strength.^{[120]: 129–132}

Burning hashish seized in Operation Albatross, a combined operation of Afghan officials, NATO, and the DEA

The US had been using drone strikes in Pakistan since 2004, starting along the Federal Tribal Areas against Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants.^[194][195]

Barack Obama with Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari in 2009

In the summer of 2008, President Bush issued an order authorizing raids against militants in Pakistan. Pakistan said it would not allow foreign forces onto its territory and that it would vigorously protect its sovereignty.^[196] In September, the Pakistan military stated that it had issued orders to "open fire" on US soldiers who crossed the border in pursuit of militant forces.^[197]

On 3 September 2008, US commandos landed by helicopter and attacked three houses close to a known enemy stronghold in Pakistan. Pakistan condemned the attack, calling the incursion "a gross violation of Pakistan's territory."^[198][199] On 6 September, in an apparent reaction, Pakistan announced an indefinite disconnection of supply lines to NATO forces.^[200] A further split occurred when Pakistani soldiers fired on Nato aircraft which had crossed the border on 25 September.^[201] However, despite tensions, the US increased the use of remotely piloted drone aircraft in Pakistan's border regions, in particular the Federal Tribal Areas and Balochistan; by 2009, drone attacks were up 183% since 2006.^[202]

Pakistani drone strikes against Taliban and al-Qaeda militants increased substantially under President Obama.^[203] Some in the media have referred to the attacks as a "drone war."^[204][205] In August 2009, Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan was killed in a drone strike.^[206]

Re-election of Karzai

A US soldier and an Afghan interpreter in Zabul, 2009

After Karzai's alleged win of 54 percent, which would prevent a runoff, over 400,000 Karzai votes had to be disallowed after accusations of fraud. Some nations criticized the elections as "free but not fair."^[207][208]

The Taliban's claim that the over 135 violent incidents disrupted elections was largely disputed. However, the media was asked to not report any violent incidents.^[209] In southern Afghanistan where the Taliban held the most power, voter turnout was low and sporadic violence was directed at voters and security personnel.^[210] The Taliban released a video days after the elections, filming on the road between Kabul and Kandahar, stopping vehicles and asking to see their fingers (voters were marked by dipping their fingers in ink so they could not double vote). The video went showed ten men who had voted, listening to a Taliban militant. The Taliban pardoned the voters because of Ramadan.^[211] The Taliban attacked towns with rockets and other indirect fire. Amid claims of widespread fraud, both top contenders, Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah, claimed victory. Reports suggested that turnout was lower than in the prior election.^[208]

On 26 November 2009, Karzai made a public plea for direct negotiations with the Taliban leadership. Karzai said there is an "urgent need" for negotiations and made it clear that the Obama administration had opposed such talks. There was no formal US response.^[212][213]

Taliban status and strategy

Former Taliban fighters turn in their weapons as part of a reintegration program in Ghor Province

In 2007, after more than 5 years of war, Western officials and analysts estimated the strength of Taliban forces at about 10,000 fighters fielded at any given time. Of that number, only 2,000 to 3,000 were highly motivated, full-time insurgents.^[214] The rest were volunteer units, made up of young Afghans, angered by deaths of Afghan civilians in military airstrikes and American detention of Muslim prisoners who had been held for years without being charged.^[215] In 2007, more foreign fighters came into Afghanistan than ever before, according to officials. Approximately 100 to 300 full-time combatants were foreigners, many from Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Chechnya, various Arab countries and perhaps even Turkey and western China. They were reportedly more violent, uncontrollable and extreme, often bringing superior video-production or bomb making expertise.^[216] By 2010 the Taliban had as many as 25,000 dedicated soldiers, almost as many as before 9/11.^[217]

General McChrystal, newly appointed as US commander in Afghanistan, said that the Taliban had gained the upper hand. In a continuation of the Taliban's usual strategy of summer offensives,^[218] the militants aggressively spread their influence into north and west Afghanistan and stepped up their attack in an attempt to disrupt presidential polls.^[219] Calling the Taliban a "very aggressive enemy", he added that the US strategy was to stop their momentum and focus on protecting and safeguarding Afghan civilians, calling it "hard work."^[220]

Peace negotiations

By 2009 there was broad agreement in Afghanistan that the war should end, but how it should happen was a major issue for the candidates of the 2009 Afghan presidential election that re-elected Karzai.^[237] In a televised speech after being elected, Karzai called on "our Taliban brothers to come home and embrace their land"^[238] and laid plans to launch a loya jirga. Efforts were undermined by the Obama administration's increase of American troops in the country.^[239] Karzai reiterated at a London conference in January 2010 that he wanted to reach out to the Taliban to lay down arms.^[240] US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton cautiously supported the proposal.^[241] The "Peace Jirga" was held in Kabul, attended by 1,600 delegates, in June 2010. However, the Taliban and the Hezb-i Islami Gulbuddin, who were both invited by Karzai as a gesture of goodwill did not attend the conference.^[242]

Troops from the 31st and 33rd Kandak, Afghan National Army, execute a departure for Operation Valley Flood

The Taliban's co-founder and then-second-in-command, Abdul Ghani Baradar, was one of the leading Taliban members who favored talks with the US and Afghan governments. Karzai's administration reportedly held talks with Baradar in February 2010; however, later that month, Baradar was captured in a joint US-Pakistani raid in the city of Karachi in Pakistan. The arrest infuriated Karzai and invoked suspicions that he was seized because the Pakistani intelligence community was opposed to Afghan peace talks.^[243][244] Karzai started peace talks with Haqqani network groups in March 2010.^[245]

A mindset change and strategy occurred within the Obama administration in 2010 to allow possible political negotiations to solve the war.^[246] The Taliban themselves had refused to speak to the Afghan government, portraying them as an American "puppet." Sporadic efforts for peace talks between the US and the Taliban occurred afterward, and it was reported in October 2010 that Taliban leadership commanders (the "Quetta Shura") had left their haven in Pakistan and been safely escorted to Kabul by NATO aircraft for talks, with the assurance that NATO staff would not apprehend them.^[247] After the talks concluded, it emerged that the leader of this delegation, who claimed to be Akhtar Mansour, the second-in-command of the Taliban, was actually an imposter who had duped NATO officials.^[248]

Karzai confirmed in June 2011 that secret talks were taking place between the US and the Taliban,^[249] but these collapsed by August 2011.^[250] Further attempts to resume talks were canceled in March 2012,^[251] and June 2013 following a dispute between the Afghan government and the Taliban regarding the latter's opening of a political office in Qatar. President Karzai accused the Taliban of portraying themselves as a government in exile.^[252] In July 2015, Pakistan hosted the first official peace talks between Taliban representatives and the Afghan government. U.S. and China attended the talks brokered by Pakistan in Murree as two observers.^[253] In January 2016, Pakistan hosted a round of four-way talks with Afghan, Chinese and American officials, but the Taliban did not attend.^[254] The Taliban did hold informal talks with the Afghan government in 2016.^[255]

Wikileaks, discipline issues

US soldiers walk by local Afghan boys during a patrol in Gardez

On 25 July 2010, the release of 91,731 classified documents from the WikiLeaks organization was made public. The documents cover US military incident and intelligence reports from January 2004 to December 2009.^[256] Some of these documents included sanitized, and "covered up", accounts of civilian casualties caused by Coalition Forces. The reports included many references to other incidents involving civilian casualties like the Kunduz airstrike and Nangar Khel incident.^[257] The leaked documents also contain reports of Pakistan collusion with the Taliban. According to Der Spiegel, "the documents clearly show that the Pakistani intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (usually known as the ISI) is the most important accomplice the Taliban has outside of Afghanistan."^[258]

Beginning in January 2012, incidents involving US troops^{[259][260][261][262][263][264]} occurred that were described by The Sydney Morning Herald as "a series of damaging incidents and disclosures involving US troops in Afghanistan."^[259] These incidents created fractures in the partnership between Afghanistan and ISAF,^[265] raised the question whether discipline within US troops was breaking down,^[266] undermined "the image of foreign forces in a country where there is already deep resentment owing to civilian deaths and a perception among many Afghans that US troops lack respect for Afghan culture and people"^[267] and strained the relations between Afghanistan and the United States.^[260][261] Besides an incident involving US troops who posed with body parts of dead insurgents and a video apparently showing a US helicopter crew singing "bye-bye Miss American Pie" before blasting a group of Afghan men with a Hellfire missile^[267][268] these "high-profile US military incidents in Afghanistan"^[263] also included the 2012 Afghanistan Quran burning protests and the Panjwai shooting spree.

Pakistan-US tensions

US Army soldiers boarding a Black Hawk in Nari District, near the Pakistani border

Tensions between Pakistan and the US were heightened in late September after several Pakistan Frontier Corps soldiers were killed and wounded. The troops were attacked by a US piloted aircraft that was pursuing Taliban forces near the Afghan-Pakistan border, but for unknown reasons opened fire on two Pakistan border posts. In retaliation for the strike, Pakistan closed the Torkham ground border crossing to NATO supply convoys for an unspecified period. This incident followed the release of a video allegedly showing uniformed Pakistan soldiers executing unarmed civilians.^[269] After the Torkham border closing, Pakistani Taliban attacked NATO convoys, killing several drivers and destroying around 100 tankers.^[270]

ISAF forces skirmished Pakistan's armed forces on 26 November, killing 24 Pakistani soldiers. Each side claimed the other shot first. Pakistan blocked NATO supply lines and ordered Americans to leave Shamsi Airfield.^[271][272]

Killing of Osama bin Laden

On 2 May 2011, US officials announced that al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden had been killed in Operation Neptune Spear, conducted by the US Navy SEALs, in Abbottabad, Pakistan.^[273] Pakistan came under intense international scrutiny after the raid. The Pakistani government denied that it had sheltered bin Laden, and said it had shared information with the CIA and other intelligence agencies about the compound since 2009.^[274]

International drawdown and strategic agreements

An Australian service light armored vehicle drives through Tangi Valley, 29 March 2011

On 22 June President Obama announced that 10,000 troops would be withdrawn by the end of 2011 and an additional 23,000 troops would return by the summer of 2012. After the withdrawal of 10,000 US troops, only 80,000 remained.^[275] In July 2011 Canada withdrew its combat troops, transitioning to a training role. Following suit, other NATO countries announced troop reductions.

Taliban attacks continued at the same rate as they did in 2011, around 28,000 in 2013.^[276]

Afghan Army unit neutralizes an IED in Sangin, Helmand province

Karzai visited the US in January 2012. At the time the US Government stated its openness to withdrawing all of its troops by the end of 2014.^[277] On 11 January 2012 Karzai and Obama agreed to transfer combat operations from NATO to Afghan forces by spring 2013 rather than summer 2013.^[278][279] "What's going to happen this spring is that Afghans will be in the lead throughout the country", Obama said. "They [ISAF forces] will still be fighting alongside Afghan troops...we will be in a training, assisting, advising role."^[279] He also stated the reason of the withdrawals that "We achieved our central goal, or have come very close...which is to de-capacitate al-Qaeda, to dismantle them, to make sure that they can't attack us again."^[280] He added that any US mission beyond 2014 would focus solely on counterterrorism operations and training.^[280][281]

Soldiers from the Michigan Army National Guard and the Latvian Army patrol through a village in Konar province.

On 2 May 2012, Presidents Karzai and Obama signed a strategic partnership agreement between the two countries, after the US president had arrived unannounced in Kabul.^[282] On 7 July, as part of the agreement, the US designated Afghanistan a major non-NATO ally after Karzai and Clinton met in Kabul.^[283] Both leaders agreed that the United States would transfer Afghan prisoners and prisons to the Afghan government^[279][284] and withdraw troops from Afghan villages in spring 2013.^[284][285]

Security transfer

In 2012 the leaders of NATO-member countries endorsed an exit strategy during the NATO Summit.^[144] ISAF Forces would transfer command of all combat missions to Afghan forces by the middle of 2013,^[286] while shifting from combat to advising, training and assisting Afghan security forces.^[287][288] Most of the 130,000 ISAF troops would depart by the end of December 2014.^[286] A new NATO mission would then assume the support role.^[287][289]

On 18 June 2013 the transfer of security responsibilities from NATO to Afghan forces was completed.^[290] ISAF remained slated to end its mission by the end of 2014.^[291] Some 100,000 ISAF forces remained in the country.^[292]

Battle of Kunduz

Heavy fighting occurred in the Kunduz province,^[315][316] which was the site of clashes from 2009 onwards. In May 2015, flights into the Northern city of Kunduz were suspended due to weeks of clashes between the Afghan security forces and the Taliban outside the city.^[317] The intensifying conflict in the Northern Char Dara District within the Kunduz province led the Afghan government to enlist local militia fighters to bolster opposition to the Taliban insurgency.^[318] In June, the Taliban intensified attacks around the Northern city of Kunduz as part of a major offensive in an attempt to capture the city.^{[319][320][321]} Tens of thousands of inhabitants were displaced internally by the fighting. The government recaptured the Char Dara district after roughly a month of fighting.^[322]

In late September, Taliban forces launched an attack on Kunduz, seizing several outlying villages and entering the city. The Taliban stormed the regional hospital and clashed with security forces at the nearby university. The fighting saw the Taliban attack from four different districts: Char Dara to the West, Aliabad to the Southwest, Khanabad to the East and Imam Saheb to the North.^[323][324] The Taliban took the Zakhel and Ali Khel villages on the highway leading south, which connects the city to Kabul and Mazar-e Sharif through Aliabad district, and reportedly made their largest gains in the Southwest of Kunduz, where some local communities had picked up weapons and supported the Taliban.^[323] Taliban fighters had allegedly blocked the route to the Airport to prevent civilians fleeing the city.^[325] One witness reported that the headquarters of the National Directorate of Security was set on fire.^[326] Kunduz was recaptured by Afghan and American forces on 14 October 2015.

Taliban negotiations and in-fighting

China attempted to negotiate with the Taliban in 2016, as the Afghan security situation affects its own separatist groups, and economic activity with Pakistan. The Taliban declined.^[327][328]

The bombing of the Kabul parliament has highlighted differences within the Taliban in their approach to peace talks.^[329][330] In April 2016, President Ashraf Ghani "pulled the plug" on the Afghan governments failing effort to start peace talks with the Taliban.^[331] Additionally, due to the integration of Haqqani Networks into the Taliban leadership, it would become harder for peace talks to take place.^[332][333] Although leader of the Taliban, Haibatullah Akhundzada, said a peace agreement was possible if the government in Kabul renounced its foreign allies.^[334]

On 11 November 2015, it was reported that infighting had broken out between different Taliban factions in Zabul Province. Fighters loyal to the new Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansoor fought a pro-ISIL splinter faction led by Mullah Mansoor Dadullah. Even though Dadullah's faction enjoyed the support of foreign ISIL fighters, including Uzbeks and Chechens, it was reported that Mansoor's Taliban loyalists had the upper hand. According to Ghulam Jilani Farahi, provincial director of security in Zabul, more than 100 militants from both sides were killed since the fighting broke out.^[335] The infighting has continued into 2016; on 10 March 2016, officials said that the Taliban clashed with the Taliban splinter group (led by Muhammad Rasul) in the Shindand district of Herat with up to 100 militants killed; the infighting has also stifled peace talks.^[336][337]

As a result of the infighting, which has resulted in Mansour being consumed with a campaign to quell dissent against his leadership; Sirajuddin Haqqani, chief of the Haqqani Network was selected to become the deputy leader of the Taliban in the summer of 2015, during a leadership struggle within the Taliban. Sirajuddin and other Haqqani leaders increasingly ran the day-to-day military operations for the Taliban, in particular; refining urban terrorist attacks and cultivating a sophisticated international fund-raising network, they also appointed Taliban governors and began uniting the Taliban. As a result, the Haqqani Network is now closely integrated with the Taliban at a leadership level, and is growing in influence within the insurgency, whereas the network was largely autonomous before, and there are concerns that the fighting is going to be deadlier. Tensions with the Pakistani military have also been raised because American and Afghan officials accuse them of sheltering the Haqqanis as a proxy group.^[332][333]

Clashes in Helmand

US Army soldier in Nangarhar Province, 6 January 2015

In 2015 the Taliban began an offensive in Helmand Province, taking over parts of the Province. By June 2015, they had seized control of Dishu and Baghran killing 5,588 Afghan government security forces (3,720 of them were police officers).^[338] By the end of July, the Taliban had overrun Nawzad District^[339] and on 26 August, the Taliban took control of Musa Qala.^[340] In October 2015, Taliban forces had attempted to take Lashkar Gah; the capital of Helmand province, the Afghan's 215th Corps and special operations forces launched a counteroffensive against the Taliban in November,^[341] Whilst the assault was repelled, Taliban forces remained dug into the city's suburbs as of December 2015.^[342] December 2015 saw a renewed Taliban offensive in Helmand focused on the town of Sangin. The Sangin district fell to the Taliban on 21 December after fierce clashes that killed more than 90 soldiers in two days.^[343] It was reported that 30 members of the SAS alongside 60 US special forces operators joined the Afghan Army in the Battle to retake parts of Sangin from Taliban insurgents,^[344] in addition, about 300 US troops and a small number of British remained in Helmand to advise Afghan commanders at the corps level.^[345][346] Senior American commanders said that the Afghan troops in the province have lacked effective leaders as well as the necessary weapons and ammunition to hold off persistent Taliban attacks. Some Afghan soldiers in Helmand have been fighting in tough conditions for years without a break to see their family, leading to poor morale and high desertion rates.^[345]

TAAC-E advisers in February 2015

In early February 2016, Taliban insurgents renewed their assault on Sangin, after previously being repulsed in December 2015, launching a string of ferocious attacks on Afghan government forces earlier in the month. As a result, the United States decided to send troops from the 2nd Battalion, 87th Infantry Regiment, 10th Mountain Division, in order to prop up the Afghan 215th Corps in Helmand province, particularly around Sangin, joining US special operations forces already in the area.^{[347][348][349][350][351]} On 14 March 2016, Khanneshin District in Helmand Province fell to the Taliban; and district by district, Afghan troops were retreating back to urban centers in Helmand.^[328][351] In early April 2016, 600 Afghan troops launched a major offensive to retake Taliban-occupied areas of Sangin and the area around it,^[352] an Afghan army offensive to retake the town of Khanisheen was repelled by the Taliban, desertions from the army in the area are rife.^[353]

Despite US airstrikes, militants besieged Lashkar Gah, reportedly controlling all roads leading to the city and areas a few kilometres away. The US stepped up airstrikes in support of Afghan ground forces. Afghan forces in Lashkar Gah were reported as "exhausted" whilst police checkpoints around the capital were falling one by one; whilst the Taliban sent a new elite commando force into Helmand called "Sara Khitta" in Pashto.^{[354][355][356]} Afghan security forces beat back attacks by Taliban fighters encroaching on Chah-e-Anjir, just 10 km from Lashkar Gah; Afghan special forces backed by US airstrikes battled increasingly well-armed and disciplined Taliban militants. An Afghan special forces commander said "The Taliban have heavily armed, uniformed units that are equipped with night vision and modern weapons."^[357] On 22 August 2016, the US announced that 100 US troops were sent to Lashkar Gah to help prevent the Taliban from overrunning it, in what Brigadier General Charles Cleveland called a "temporary effort" to advise the Afghan police.^[358]

A USAF F-16 Fighting Falcon takes off at Bagram Airfield for a combat sortie, 14 March 2016

On 31 December 2016, the Taliban continued their assault on the province with attacks on Sangin and Marjah districts.^[359] Some estimated suggest the Taliban had retaken more than 80% of Helmand province.^[310] During the early hours of 23 March 2017 Sangin district was captured by the Taliban as they had overrun the district center, the town of Sangin. During the earlier phase of the war, almost a quarter of British casualties were caused by fighting for the town, while more recently hundreds of Afghan troops died defending it.^[360][361] On 29 April 2017, the US deployed an additional 5,000 Marines to the Southern Helmand Province.^[362]

Emergence of Islamic State

In mid-January 2015, the Islamic State caliphate established a branch in Afghanistan called Khorasan (ISKP, or ISIS-K) and began recruiting fighters^[363] and clashing with the Taliban.^[364][365] It was created after pledging allegiance to the self-assumed worldwide caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.^[366] On 18 March, Hafiz Wahidi, ISIL's replacement deputy Emir in Afghanistan, was killed by the Afghan Armed Forces, along with 9 other ISIL militants accompanying him.^[367] In January 2016, the US government sent a directive to the Pentagon which granted new legal authority for the US military to go on the offensive against Militants affiliated with the ISIL-KP, after the State Department announced the designation of ISIS in Afghanistan and Pakistan as a foreign terrorist organization. The number of militants started with around 60 or 70, with most of them coming over the border with Pakistan but eventually ranged between 1,000 and 3,000 militants,^[368] mainly defectors from the Afghan and the Pakistani Taliban, and was generally confined to Nangarhar Province but also had a presence in Kunar province.^[368][369]

USAF pilots fly a CH-47 Chinook in Nangarhar, April 2017

On 23 July 2016, Afghan and US forces began an offensive to clear Nangarhar province of Islamic State militants hours after the Kabul bombing, the operation was dubbed "Wrath of the Storm" involving both Afghan regular army and special forces and is the Afghan army's first major strategic offensive of the summer. The estimated size of the ISIL-KP in January 2016 was around 3,000, but by July 2016 the number had been reduced to closely 1,000 to 1,500, with 70% of its fighters come from the TTP.^{[307][370][371]}

The Army Times reported that in early March 2017, American and Afghan forces launched Operation Hamza to "flush" ISIS-K from its stronghold in eastern Afghanistan, engaging in regular ground battles.^[372] In April 2017, the Washington Post reported that Captain Bill Salvin, a spokesman for NATO's mission to Afghanistan, said that Afghan and international forces had reduced ISIS-K controlled territory in Afghanistan by two-thirds and had killed around half their fighters in the previous two years. Since the beginning of 2017, 460 airstrikes against terrorists (with drone strikes alone killing more than 200 IS militants); he added that the affiliate has an estimated 600–800 fighters in two eastern Afghan provinces.^[373]

On 15 September 2017, the New York Times reported that the CIA was seeking authority to conduct its own drone strikes in Afghanistan and other war zones, according to current and former intelligence and military officials, and that the change in authority was being considered by the White House as part of the new strategy despite concerns by the Pentagon.^[374] On 19 September 2017, the Trump Administration deployed another 3,000 US troops to Afghanistan. They would add to the approximately 11,000 US troops already serving in Afghanistan, bringing the total to at least 14,000 US troops stationed in Afghanistan.^[375] On 4 October 2017, Fox News reported that Defense Secretary Jim Mattis approved a change in rules of engagement as part of the new strategy so that there is no longer a requirement for US troops to be in contact with enemy forces in Afghanistan before opening fire.^[376]

National peace movements and first ceasefire

US, British and Afghan security forces train together in an aerial reaction force exercise at Camp Qargha in Kabul, 16 January 2018.

Following Ghani's offer of unconditional peace talks with the Taliban, a growing peace movement arose in Afghanistan during 2018, particularly following a peace march by the People's Peace Movement,^[390] which the Afghan media dubbed the "Helmand Peace Convoy."^[391][392] The marchers walked several hundred kilometers from Lashkar Gah in Helmand Province, through Taliban-held territory,^[393] to Kabul. There they met Ghani and held sit-in protests outside the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan and nearby embassies.^[394] Their efforts inspired further movements in other parts of Afghanistan.^[395]

Following the march, Ghani and the Taliban agreed a mutual, unprecedented, ceasefire during the Eid al-Fitr celebrations in June 2018. During the Eid ceasefire, Taliban members flocked into Kabul where they met and communicated with locals and state security forces. Creating a mood of hope and fear, many civilians welcomed the Taliban and spoke about peace, including some women.^[396] Although civilians called for the ceasefire to be made permanent, the Taliban rejected an extension and resumed fighting after the ceasefire ended on 18 June, while the Afghan government's ceasefire ended a week later.^{[397][398][399]}

Numerous peace movements arose in Afghanistan, including the Tabassum movement in 2015, the Enlightenment Movement during 2016–2017, Uprising for Change in 2017, and the People's Peace Movement in March 2018.

American officials had secretly met members of the Taliban's political commission in Qatar in July 2018.^[400] In September 2018, Trump appointed Zalmay Khalilzad as special adviser on Afghanistan in the US State Department, with the stated goal of facilitating an intra-Afghan political peace process.^[401] Khalilzad led further talks between the US and the Taliban in Qatar in October 2018.^[402] Russia hosted a separate peace talk in November 2018 between the Taliban and officials from Afghanistan's High Peace Council.^[403] The talks in Qatar resumed in December 2018,^[404] though the Taliban refused to allow the Afghan government to be invited,^[405] considering them a puppet government of the US.^[406] The Taliban spoke with Afghans including former President Hamid Karzai at a hotel in Moscow in February 2019, but again these talks did not include the Afghan government.^[407]

On 25 February 2019, peace talks began between the Taliban and the United States in Qatar, with the Taliban co-founder Abdul Ghani Baradar notably present.^[406] Peace negotiations had resumed in December 2019.^[408] This round of talks resulted in a seven-day partial ceasefire which began on 22 February 2020.^[409] On 29 February, the United States and the Taliban signed a conditional peace deal in Doha, Qatar^[410] that called for a prisoner exchange within ten days and was supposed to lead to US troops withdrawal from Afghanistan within 14 months.^[82][411] However, the Afghan government was not a party to the deal, and, in a press conference the next day, President Ghani criticized the deal for being "signed behind closed doors." He said the Afghan government had "made no commitment to free 5,000 Taliban prisoners" and that such an action "is not the United States' authority, but it is the authority of the government of Afghanistan."^{[412][413][83][414]}

Spike in violence and prisoners dispute

US representative Zalmay Khalilzad (left) and Taliban representative Abdul Ghani Baradar (right) sign the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan in Doha, Qatar on 29 February 2020

NATO's Resolute Support Mission commander Austin S. Miller alongside US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Afghanistan, March 2021

After signing the agreement with the United States, the Taliban resumed offensive operations against the Afghan army and police on 3 March, conducting attacks in Kunduz and Helmand provinces.^[415] On 4 March, the United States retaliated by launching an air strike against Taliban fighters in Helmand.^[416] Despite the peace agreement between the US and the Taliban, insurgent attacks against Afghan security forces were reported to have surged in the country. In the 45 days after the agreement (between 1 March and 15 April 2020), the Taliban conducted more than 4,500 attacks in Afghanistan, which showed an increase of more than 70% as compared to the same period in the previous year.^[417] More than 900 Afghan security forces were killed in the period, up from about 520 in the same period a year earlier. Because of a significant reduction in the number of offensives and airstrikes by Afghan and US forces against the Taliban due to the agreement, Taliban casualties dropped to 610 in the period down from about 1,660 in the same period a year earlier.^[417] Meanwhile ISIS-K continued to be a threat on its own, killing 32 people in a mass shooting in Kabul on 6 March,^[418] killing 25 Sikh worshippers at a Kabul temple on 25 March,^[419] and a series of attacks in May most notably killing 16 mothers and newborn babies at a Kabul hospital maternity ward.^[420] Since the US withdrawal, the number of casualties of women in the Afghanistan conflict rose by almost 40% in the first quarter of 2021 alone.^[421]

On 22 June 2020, Afghanistan reported its "bloodiest week in 19 years", during which 291 members of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) were killed and 550 others wounded in 422 attacks carried out by the Taliban. At least 42 civilians, including women and children, were also killed and 105 others wounded by the Taliban across 18 provinces.^[422] During the week, the Taliban kidnapped 60 civilians in the central province of Daykundi.^[423]

Taliban summer offensive, capture of Kabul and Taliban victory

A map of Afghanistan showing the Taliban offensive

Taliban fighters in Kabul, 17 August 2021

The Taliban began its last major offensive on 1 May 2021, culminating in the fall of Kabul, a Taliban victory, and the end of war.^{[434][435][436]} In the first three months of the offensive, the Taliban made significant territorial gains in the countryside, increasing the number of districts it controlled from 73 to 223.^[437]

On March 6, Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani expressed that his government would be taking forward peace talks with the Taliban, discussing with the insurgent group about holding fresh elections and forming a government in a democratic manner.^[438] On April 13, the Biden administration announced that it would withdraw its remaining 2,500 troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021, on the twentieth anniversary of the September 11 attacks.^[439] The US government also reiterated support for the Afghan government regarding a possible Taliban military victory.^[440] On July 5, the Taliban announced their intention to present a written peace plan to the Afghan Government in August but as of August 13, this had not been done.^[441][442] Sources claimed that on August 12, Abdullah Abdullah, the Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation, handed in a plan titled "exiting the crisis" which was shared with the Taliban. The sources say that the plan calls for the creation of a "joint government."^[443] On August 15, following the Taliban offensive and the fall of the capital Kabul, the Taliban occupied the Presidential Palace after the incumbent President Ashraf Ghani fled the country to Tajikistan.^[444][445] NATO forces maintain a presence in Kabul.^[445][446]

The Taliban gained control of various towns throughout June and July. On 6 August, they captured the first provincial capital of Zaranj. Over the next ten days, they swept across the country, capturing capital after capital. On 14 August, Mazar-i-Sharif was captured as commanders Rashid Dostum and Atta Nur fled across the border to Uzbekistan, cutting Kabul's vital northern supply route. In the early hours of 15 August, Jalalabad fell, cutting the only remaining international route through the Khyber Pass.^[447] By noon of that day, Taliban forces advanced from the Paghman district reaching the gates of Kabul; President Ashraf Ghani discussed the city's protection with security ministers, while sources claimed a unity peace agreement with the Taliban was imminent. However, Ghani was unable to reach top officials in the interior and defense ministries, and several high-profile politicians had already hurried to the airport. By 2 p.m., the Taliban had entered the city facing no resistance; the president soon fled by helicopter from the Presidential Palace, and within hours Taliban fighters were pictured sitting at Ghani's desk in the palace.^[448] With the virtual collapse of the republic, the war was declared over by the Taliban on the same day.^[449]

Airlifts and final US exit

As the Taliban seized control on 15 August 2021, the need to evacuate populations vulnerable to the Taliban, including the interpreters and assistants who had worked with the coalition forces, ethnic minorities, and women, became urgent. For more than two weeks, international diplomatic, military and civilian staff, as well as Afghan civilians, were airlifted out the country from Hamid Karzai International Airport. On 16 August Major General Hank Taylor confirmed that US air strikes had ended at least 24 hours earlier and that the focus of the US military at that point was maintaining security at the airport as evacuations continued.^[450] The final flight, a US Air Force C-17, departed at 3:29 p.m. ET, 11:59 p.m. in Kabul time, on 30 August 2021, marking the end of the American campaign in Afghanistan and followed by celebratory gunfire by Taliban.^[451] Many observers have noted this as the end of America's longest war in history.^{[86][452][453][454]}