Robert Cahaly
Born
Robert C. Cahaly

Georgia, US
Alma materUniversity of South Carolina
Occupations
OrganizationTrafalgar Group
Known forWeighting opinion polls to account for a purported "shyness" among Donald Trump supporters
Political partyRepublican

Robert C. Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group. He was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates.[1]

Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. He drew attention in the aftermath of the election, in which Trafalgar had been one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election(Though his polling was wrong, as Hillary won the popular vote, his polling methods could not have predicted the outcome of the electoral college). Cahaly claimed that Trafalgar's polling methodology was more accurate than other polls because it utilized methods to increase the weighting of supposed "shy, pro-Trump" voters, which he argued to be underrepresented in most polls.[2] Cahaly does not disclose Trafalgar's group's methods of polling or its process for ascertaining the volume of shy Trump voters in the electorate.[3]

Leading up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly garnered substantial media attention for his assertions that Trump would prevail over Joe Biden in the 2020 election, a claim that contradicted the polling consensus.[4][5] Cahaly's prediction of a Trump victory proved to be wrong, with him (and Trafalgar) incorrectly predicting Trump victories in five battleground states won by Biden.[6]

Early life

Cahaly was born in Georgia and grew up in Pendleton, South Carolina, and received a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from the University of South Carolina in 1995.[1][7] Cahaly is of Syrian heritage and an Eastern Orthodox Christian.[1][8][9][10][11] Starting as a child, he volunteered on various political campaigns, before eventually founding his own political consulting firm in 1997.

Career

Political consultant

Cahaly has worked on campaigns for various Republicans, including governors Carroll Campbell, David Beasley, Mike Huckabee, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, and Henry McMaster; US Senators Strom Thurmond, Bob Dole, Tim Scott, and Ben Sasse; and Presidents George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump.[12]

On November 3, 2010, Cahaly was arrested by the State Law Enforcement Division (SLED) and charged with making illegal robocalls.[13] Cahaly denied any wrongdoing, stating "It is sad and disappointing that in this charged election cycle full of last minute surprise attacks that Democrat Incumbents and power brokers are leveraging all of their influence to create a last minute salacious headline. We are apparently today's target." The charges were subsequently dismissed in October 2012.[14] After the charges were dropped, Cahaly filed suit against SLED officials, claiming his constitutional right to free speech had been violated. The subsequent decision of Cahaly v. LaRosa found the anti-robocall statute was a content-based restriction on speech and therefore unconstitutional, which defended the right of Cahaly to make robocalls.[15]

Pollster

Cahaly gained media attention in 2016 for being one of the few pollsters to accurately predict that Donald Trump would carry the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania in the 2016 United States presidential election.[16] Cahaly attributed this partially on the premise of "Shy Trump Voter Theory", which claims that poll respondents are afraid to reveal that they are voting for Trump due to a "social desirability bias."[17][18]

In November 2020, Cahaly appeared on Hannity on Fox News and predicted that Trump would win Pennsylvania, but possibly still lose the state through voter fraud: "He better win by 4 or 5% to make sure he gets victory there. That is the margin he needs to avoid what they will systematically do."[19]

In September 2022, Cahaly, in an interview with Split Ticket, acknowledged methodological changes from his polling of the 2020 United States elections.[20]

The Trafalgar Group's polling numbers were mostly inaccurate in the 2022 United States midterm elections.[21] Trafalgar's polls incorrectly suggested that Republican candidates such as Kari Lake, Mehmet Oz, Tim Michels, and Herschel Walker, would all win.

References

  1. 1 2 3 "Robert Cahaly".
  2. ↑ Cahaly, Robert (October 29, 2020). "Polling Methodology". Trafalgar Group. Retrieved October 29, 2020.
  3. ↑ Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (8 November 2020). "The One Pollster in America Who is Sure Trump is Going to Win". The New York Times.
  4. ↑ Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (4 November 2020). "The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win". The New York Times. Retrieved 5 November 2020.
  5. ↑ Kaut, Kendall (6 November 2020). "Trafalgar's Missed a Lot in 2018 and 2020".
  6. ↑ Philip Bump (2020-11-16). "It's important to ask why 2020 polls were off. It's more important to ask what will happen next". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286.
  7. ↑ "GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls" Nov. 2, 2010 https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
  8. ↑ "Family tree of Robert CAHALY". Geneanet. Retrieved 2021-03-27.
  9. ↑ "Family tree of Margaret Nashawaty". Geneanet. Retrieved 2021-03-27.
  10. ↑ "The Wellesley Townsman". wellesley.wickedlocal.com. Retrieved 2021-03-27.
  11. ↑ "Pogo After Twelve | News | The Harvard Crimson". www.thecrimson.com. Retrieved 2021-03-27.
  12. ↑ "Robert Cahaly".
  13. ↑ "GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls"". 2 November 2010. Retrieved Oct 27, 2015.
  14. ↑ "Charges Against GOP Consultant Cahaly Dropped". 5 October 2012. Retrieved Oct 27, 2015.
  15. ↑ "Fed Court rules law Cahaly charged under unconstitutional". Retrieved Oct 27, 2015.
  16. ↑ "An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S. - AAPOR". www.aapor.org. Archived from the original on 2018-04-15. Retrieved 2020-11-03.
  17. ↑ Ed Kilgore, "There’s Still No Evidence Trump Voters Are Particularly ‘Shy’" New York Magazine, JULY 29, 2020 https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/theres-still-no-evidence-trump-voters-are-particularly-shy.html
  18. ↑ "Four Problems With 2016 Trump Polling That Could Play Out Again in 2020," New York Times, Nov. 25, 2019
  19. ↑ Hall, Colby (2 November 2020). "Trafalgar Pollster Robert Cahaly Makes Baseless Claim: Trump Will Win Pennsylvania, But 'They' Will Steal It With Voter Fraud". mediaite.com. Mediaite. Retrieved 2 November 2020.
  20. ↑ Jain, Lakshya; Lee, Michael; Thomas, Armin; Lavelle, Harrison (20 September 2022). "What's Going On With Trafalgar's Polls?". Split Ticket. Retrieved 20 September 2022.
  21. ↑ "On Polls, Pollsters, and Pundits". Archived from the original on 2022-11-16.
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