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Parliamentary elections will be held in Croatia by 22 September 2024 to elect the members of the 11th Sabor.
Electoral system
The 151 members of the Croatian Parliament are elected from 10 geographical and two special electoral districts:[1]
- 140 seats are elected in ten geographical 14-seat electoral districts (1st–10th Electoral Districts) by open list proportional representation (using a 5% electoral threshold) with seats allocated using the d'Hondt method
- 3 seats are elected in a special electoral district (11th Electoral District) for Croatian citizens living abroad
- 8 seats are elected from an electoral district for national minorities (12th Electoral District): 3 seats for Serbian, 1 seat for Italian, 1 seat for Hungarian, 1 seat for Czech and Slovak, 1 seat for Albanian, Bosniak, Macedonian, Montenegrin and Slovenian, and 1 seat for Austrian, Bulgarian, German, Jewish, Polish, Roma, Romanian, Rusyn, Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian and Vlach national minority
On 28 October 2022 the Constitutional Court issued a warning that it could declare the next elections unconstitutional unless the electoral law was changed, due to excessive differences in the number of voters for each constituency, leading to significant variations in vote weight.[2] On 7 February 2023 the Constitutional Court repealed the electoral law because the difference in vote weight between different electoral districts was too large to comply with the constitutional provision that each vote must be of equal weight.[3] Parliament passed a new electoral law on 20 October 2023, which came into effect on 3 November, requiring the next elections to be held with reorganized electoral districts.[4]
Political parties
The table below lists party groups represented in the Sabor as a result of the 2020 election.
Pre-election activities
The elections for members of the Croatian Parliament will not be snap elections, but the HDZ is seriously preparing for their holding in March next year, two months before the elections for members of the European Parliament. From conversations with several high-ranking HDZ members, Jutarnji list reports that it is clear that Andrej Plenković will collect all the trump cards with which he will go before the voters and ask for another prime ministerial mandate in the next year, so that the elections can be held before the Easter holidays in 2024.[5]
First pre-election coalition was agreed by The Bridge and Croatian Sovereignists, on 8 July 2023, with open spot for other parties position from the center to the right including Homeland Movement.[6] Ivan Penava (DP) did not decline the possibility but instead called for Most to join a coalition with DP.[7] Eventually DP entered alliance with Croatian Democratic Peasant Party on 16 December 2023.[8]
On 28 July 2023 coalition was agreed between two liberal regional parties, Istrian Democratic Assembly and Alliance of Primorje-Gorski Kotar, with a main goal to represent Istria and Kvarner in VII and VIII electoral district. The coalition will be also present at the 2024 European Parliament elections.[9][10] Two more liberal parties Focus and People's Party – Reformists announced their cooperation on 10 November 2023. The leader of the Reformists Radimir Čačić said that with a high level of certainty they expect a large expansion of this cooperation with parties close to them, who believe that Croatia is institutionally and as a society trapped by the HDZ, and that this should be stopped and space should be opened for a different, much more modern, more liberal Croatia.[11] Finally two groups made one single alliance on 9 December 2023. Four party leaders: Davor Nađi (Focus), Dalibor Paus (IDS), Radimir Čačić (NS-R) and Darijo Vasilić (PGS) pointed out that they are running against the HDZ and that after the elections they will not participate in the government with the HDZ, although Čačić does not rule out the possibility of supporting a minority government.[12]
Social Democratic Party dissidents led by Davorko Vidović as leader of Social Democrats made an agreement with Croatian Peasant Party on 7 October 2023, creating project Our Croatia (Croatian: Naša Hrvatska).[13] Ten days later Croatian Labourists – Labour Party joined coalition emphasizing this is just continued cooperation and trust.[14]
Most expected coalition of the next election is alliance of the main opposition party Social Democratic Party of Croatia and left wing contender We can!. Idea of their coalition was called as probable because of big swing that two parties could do together. In spite of that We can! announced on 27 June 2023 going out on their own, leaving the possibility after the election to form a government with parties of the center to the left, including the SDP.[15]
Opinion polls
Notes
- ↑ Vladimir Bilek (Czech and Slovak seat) and Furio Radin (Italian seat)
References
- ↑ Electoral system IPU
- ↑ "Novo upozorenje Ustavnog suda: 'Ne bude li promjena izbornih jedinica, sljedeći izbori mogli bi biti proglašeni neustavnima'" [New warning from the Constitutional Court: 'If electoral units are not changed, the next elections could be declared unconstitutional']. tportal.hr (in Croatian). 27 October 2022. Retrieved 7 January 2023.
- ↑ "Ustavni sud ukinuo Zakon o izbornim jedinicama: "Ovo nije nikakva hajka"" [The Constitutional Court repealed the Law on Electoral Units: "This is not a scam"]. dnevnik.hr (in Croatian). 7 February 2023.
- ↑ "Zakon o izbornim jedinicama za izbor zastupnika u Hrvatski sabor". Zakon. Retrieved 2023-11-23.
- ↑ "HDZ se priprema za parlamentarne izbore u ožujku 2024" [HDZ is preparing for parliamentary elections in March 2024.]. Dubrovački vjesnik (in Croatian). 26 January 2023. Retrieved 26 January 2023.
- ↑ "Tko će s kim na izbore? Most i Suverenisti si pružili ruke i poručili: "Mi smo druga najjača opcija u državi"" [Who will go to the elections with whom? Most and Sovereigns held out their hands and said: "We are the second strongest option in the country."]. Dnevnik.hr (in Croatian). 8 July 2023. Retrieved 30 December 2023.
- ↑ "Penava: DP je otvoren za suradnju s Mostom, pozivamo ih u koaliciju" [Penava: DP is open to cooperation with Most, we invite them to join the coalition]. Narod.hr (in Croatian). 30 November 2023. Retrieved 30 December 2023.
- ↑ "Penava: Bez obnove hrvatskog sela nema demografske obnove i nema hrvatske budućnosti" [Penava: Without the restoration of the Croatian countryside, there is no demographic restoration and no Croatian future]. Narod.hr (in Croatian). 16 December 2023. Retrieved 30 December 2023.
- ↑ "IDS i PGS zajedno na europarlamentarne i parlamentarne izbore" [IDS and PGS together in the European parliamentary and parliamentary elections]. HRT (in Croatian). 28 July 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
- ↑ "Paus: IDS potpisivanjem koalicije s PGS-om ulazi u borbu za 4. mandat na parlamentarnim izborima i gradi širu koaliciju za europske izbore" [Paus: IDS, by signing a coalition with PGS, enters the fight for the 4th mandate in the parliamentary elections and builds a wider coalition for the European elections]. 5portal (in Croatian). 1 August 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
- ↑ "Fokus i Reformisti potpisali predizbornu koaliciju: "S HDZ-om ni pod koju cijenu"" [Fokus and the Reformists signed a pre-election coalition: "Not with HDZ at any cost"]. Novi List (in Croatian). 10 November 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
- ↑ "Sklopljena predizborna koalicija: "Manjinska bi vlada bila jako zdrava za Hrvatsku jer je previše bahatluka"" [The pre-election coalition was concluded: "A minority government would be very healthy for Croatia because there is too much arrogance"]. Dnevnik.hr (in Croatian). 9 December 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
- ↑ ""Naša Hrvatska": HSS i Socijaldemokrati potpisali Povelju o političkoj suradnji i savezu" ["Our Croatia": HSS and the Social Democrats signed the Charter on Political Cooperation and Alliance]. Novi List (in Croatian). 7 October 2023. Retrieved 8 October 2023.
- ↑ "Laburisti se pridružili savezu "Naša Hrvatska": "Ovo je samo nastavak suradnje i povjerenja"" [Labor joined the "Our Croatia" alliance: "This is just a continuation of cooperation and trust"]. Dnevnik.hr (in Croatian). 17 October 2023. Retrieved 7 January 2024.
- ↑ "Možemo! na izbore izlazi samostalno: 'Istraživanje je pokazalo da stranke tako dobivaju više glasova'" [We can! goes to the elections independently: 'Research has shown that parties get more votes this way']. Večernji list (in Croatian). 27 June 2023. Retrieved 30 December 2023.
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