2016 Missouri Democratic presidential primary
March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15)
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 36 35
Popular vote 312,285[1] 310,711
Percentage 49.61% 49.36%
Results by county
Clinton:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%
Sanders:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%
Tie:      40-50%

The 2016 Missouri Democratic presidential primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Missouri as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 United States presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own Missouri primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Official Primary results March 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49.6%		 Bernie Sanders
49.4%		 Others / Uncommitted
1.0%
Public Policy Polling[2]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 839

 March 11–12, 2016 Bernie Sanders
47%		 Hillary Clinton
46%		 Others / Undecided
7%
RABA Research[3]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 670

 March 8–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
44%		 Bernie Sanders
40%		 Others / Undecided
16%
Fort Hayes State University[4]

Margin of error: ± 8%
Sample size: 145

 March 3–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%		 Bernie Sanders
40%		 Others / Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[5]

Margin of error: 5.2%
Sample size: 352

 August 7–9, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53%		 Bernie Sanders
25%		 Martin O'Malley
5%		 Jim Webb 5%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Not sure 12%

Results

Clinton went into election night in Missouri down to Senator Sanders in the polls. Throughout the evening Sanders maintained a lead over Clinton. However St. Louis County and Jackson County, home of a large section of Kansas City, came in late and it was just enough to push Clinton over the finish line. Senator Sanders refused to request a recount citing concerns over wasting taxpayer dollars.[6]

Missouri Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 312,285 49.61% 36 11 47
Bernie Sanders 310,711 49.36% 35 2 37
Henry Hewes 650 0.10%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 442 0.07%
Jon Adams 433 0.07%
Rocky De La Fuente 345 0.05%
Willie Wilson 307 0.05%
Keith Russell Judd 288 0.05%
John Wolfe Jr. 247 0.04%
Uncommitted 3,717 0.59% 0 0 0
Total 629,425 100% 71 13 84
Source: The Green Papers, Missouri Secretary of State - Official Primary Results
State of Missouri Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 10 85656 59567 145223 6 4
2 6 46785 49661 96446 3 3
3 5 28983 35664 64647 2 3
4 5 26178 33428 59606 2 3
5 7 51696 45974 97670 4 3
6 5 28786 32129 60915 2 3
7 4 21574 31389 52963 2 2
8 5 20944 21259 42203 2 3
Total 47 310,602 309,071 619,673 23 24
PLEO 9 310,602 309,071 619,673 5 4
At Large 15 310,602 309,071 619,673 8 7
Gr. Total 71 310,602 309,071 619,673 36 35
Total vote 626,075 49.61% 49.37%
Source: Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander statewide results and Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander District results

Results by county

County[7] Clinton  % Sanders  % Others % Totals TEV TO%
Adair79940.7%1,15358.8% 15,231
Andrew49839.9%72858.4% 12,188
Atchison14144.5%17354.6% 3,815
Audrain74949.6%72848.2%
Barry79647.0%87451.6%
Barton20548.1%21450.2%
Bates51843.5%63253.1%
Benton66953.3%56745.2%
Bollinger24253.8%20345.1%
Boone9,62838.7%15,07660.6%
Buchanan3,44344.5%4,14853.7%
Butler88952.7%76645.4%
Caldwell24443.2%31455.6%
Callaway1,37844.5%1,67854.2%
Camden1,38848.9%1,41949.9%
Cape Girardeau2,07646.6%2,33552.4%
Carroll23343.2%25550.7%
Carter13848.6%14250.0%
Cass3,76546.8%4,18552.1%
Cedar33247.0%36151.1%
Chariton32152.1%27444.5%
Christian2,14640.8%3,07358.4%
Clark20251.4%17845.3%
Clay10,63045.5%12,54253.7%
Clinton76546.2%85251.4%
Cole2,79845.3%3,30353.5%
Cooper51650.1%50148.6%
Crawford52241.2%71256.2%
Dade20148.1%21351.0%
Dallas39742.9%51555.7%
Daviess23951.0%22147.1%
DeKalb22139.0%32857.8%
Dent32740.5%44955.6%
Douglas26840.5%38458.1%
Dunklin72460.9%44837.7%
Franklin3,70142.9%4,78455.4%
Gasconade40143.8%50755.3%
Gentry17148.0%17649.4%
Greene10,91038.3%17,40361.1%
Grundy21944.6%26253.4%
Harrison15848.5%16350.0%
Henry78051.7%69646.1%
Hickory7353.7%6044.1%
Holt12852.2%11044.9%
Howard41348.8%40848.2%
Howell83340.2%1,20958.4%
Iron34943.8%42653.5%
Jackson48,86052.9%42,82346.4%
Jasper2,28937.1%3,82662.0%
Jefferson9,63744.2%11,83054.3%
Johnson1,47342.5%1,94456.2%
Knox13456.8%9439.8%
Laclede73743.6%92754.8%
Lafayette1,17346.2%1,32452.2%
Lawrence87245.3%1,02853.5%
Lewis23948.3%23948.3%
Lincoln1,56143.1%1,97654.6%
Linn43650.5%40947.3%
Livingston39748.5%39848.6%
Macon42143.7%50552.4%
Madison34649.4%33447.6%
Maries30550.2%29147.9%
Marion92554.7%70741.8%
McDonald36447.6%38550.3%
Mercer6951.9%6347.4%
Miller43246.5%48051.7%
Mississippi48667.2%20928.9%
Moniteau34044.6%40953.7%
Monroe25250.9%22645.7%
Montgomery33049.4%32448.5%
Morgan55451.5%50647.1%
New Madrid69164.2%36033.5%
Newton1,24043.9%1,55355.0%
Nodaway61641.6%83156.1%
Oregon31953.0%27145.0%
Osage31447.7%32649.5%
Ozark21742.1%29356.8%
Pemiscot60269.4%25028.8%
Perry43649.3%43749.4%
Pettis1,26544.8%1,50953.5%
Phelps1,13738.4%1,74458.9%
Pike66157.0%47541.0%
Platte4,64547.1%5,14252.1%
Polk74446.1%85152.7%
Pulaski86044.6%1,02052.8%
Putnam10246.8%10849.5%
Ralls41554.5%31140.9%
Randolph64744.9%75052.0%
Ray94548.2%96849.5%
Reynolds23047.1%22846.7%
Ripley25949.1%25047.3%
Saline91051.4%80545.5%
Schuyler12449.2%11947.2%
Scotland10844.1%13454.7%
Scott1,06755.0%83443.0%
Shannon31750.6%29146.5%
Shelby24051.1%20042.6%
St. Charles17,80544.8%21,59354.3%
St. Clair34049.9%32047.0%
St. Francois1,93945.3%2,26753.0%
St. Louis (City)34,45855.0%27,74844.3%
St. Louis (County)89,37355.3%71,13444.0%
Ste. Genevieve84250.3%79847.6%
Stoddard67456.6%48941.1%
Stone80646.9%88551.5%
Sullivan17759.8%11237.8%
Taney1,19946.2%1,37352.9%
Texas60346.3%66651.2%
Vernon49047.8%51850.5%
Warren98644.0%1,22254.5%
Washington75451.4%66445.3%
Wayne39357.8%26438.8%
Webster94044.0%1,17054.8%
Worth5941.5%7653.5%
Wright40250.5%38548.4%
Total310,60249.6%309,07149.4% 6,429

Analysis

Hillary Clinton, having narrowly lost the Missouri primary to Barack Obama eight years prior, managed a slim 0.2-percentage-point-victory over an increasingly popular insurgent Bernie Sanders in 2016. With Sanders winning men 56-44, voters under the age of 45 67-32, and white voters 54-45, Clinton won among women 54-44, older voters 62-37, and African American voters 67-32.

Sanders won among voters who made less than $50k and $100k per year, with Clinton winning more affluent voters. And while Sanders won 67-33 among self-identified Independents who made up 24% of the electorate, Clinton won 55-44 among the 74% of voters who identified as Democrats. While Sanders won among liberals 53-46, Clinton won moderates and conservatives 55-44. Sanders was able to win 54-45 among union households, a key voting bloc in the industrial Midwest, and he won 53-46 among those who believe trade with other countries takes away U.S. jobs; trade deals championed by Bill and Hillary Clinton have not always gone over well in the industrial Rust Belt. In terms of each voters' family financial situation, voters who were "getting ahead" or "holding steady" opted for Clinton, while those who felt they were "falling behind" overwhelmingly favored Sanders.[8]

Clinton won a large victory in St. Louis City and St. Louis County (she won 55-44 according to exit polls, likely thanks to her ardent African American support), and she also managed a 51-48 victory in Kansas City on the western side of the state. Sanders, meanwhile, won victories in Columbia and Springfield, keeping the race close statewide, and won in the largely white, rural and more conservative counties, including areas of Northwestern Missouri bordering Kansas and Nebraska, and Southwestern Missouri bordering Oklahoma. All three neighboring states are Great Plains states that Sanders won earlier in March.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Missouri Secretary of State - Official Primary Results". Archived from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved June 17, 2016.
  2. ↑ "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
  3. ↑ "Missouri Poll Results". RABA Research. Retrieved March 11, 2016.
  4. ↑ "Missouri Poll Results". Fort Hayes State University. Retrieved March 12, 2016.
  5. ↑ "Trump Up Big in Missouri; GOP Hopefuls Lead Clinton in State" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved August 12, 2015.
  6. ↑ Dann, Carrie (March 17, 2016). "Sanders Concedes Missouri Primary, Won't Seek Recount". Retrieved December 2, 2019.
  7. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 4, 2018.
  8. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved October 10, 2016.
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