2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election
November 2, 2010
Turnout54.81% Decrease 1.42 [1]
 
Nominee Deval Patrick Charlie Baker Tim Cahill
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Running mate Tim Murray Richard Tisei Paul Loscocco
(Candidate dropped out)[2]
Popular vote 1,112,283 964,866 184,395
Percentage 48.4% 42.0% 8.0%
Patrick:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Baker:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Cahill:      40–50%
Tie:      40–50%
     No votes
Governor before election

Deval Patrick
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Deval Patrick
Democratic

The 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick was re-elected to a second term.[3]

Party primaries were held on September 14, though all four candidates ran unopposed in their respective primaries.[4] Tim Murray, who ran on a ticket with Patrick, was re-elected Lieutenant Governor. This election is the only gubernatorial election since 1994 in which the two major parties did not have a woman on the gubernatorial ticket.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Withdrew

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Deval Patrick Grace Ross
Suffolk University February 21–24, 2010 59% 15%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Eliminated at convention
Declined

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Charlie Baker Christy Mihos
The Boston Globe/UNH July 15–21, 2009 27% 20%
Suffolk University Archived 2010-01-07 at the Wayback Machine November 4–8, 2009 30% 33%
Suffolk University February 21–24, 2010 47% 17%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

General election

Candidates

  • Running mate: Paul Loscocco, former Republican State Representative
  • Running mate: Tim Murray, incumbent Lieutenant Governor
  • Running mate: Richard P. Purcell, surgery clerk and ergonomics assessor[22]

Campaign

Defection of Loscocco

On October 1, 2010, Loscocco announced that he would withdraw from the race and endorse Republican candidate Charlie Baker.[2] Loscocco formally remained on the ballot, however.[23] On October 7, Cahill filed a lawsuit against four former campaign aides, alleging that they conspired to undermine his candidacy and help Charlie Baker by arranging his defection.[24] Cahill claimed that e-mails between Republican political consultants and Loscocco's top aide suggested that Loscocco may have been enticed to leave the ticket by future job promises.[25] In response, Loscocco claimed that Cahill's top aide was coordinating strategy with the Patrick campaign and the Democratic Governors' Association and thus was never actually an independent effort.[26]

Lottery ad

Soon after Cahill filed suit against him, Adam Meldrum, Cahill's former campaign manager, alleged that Cahill colluded with the Massachusetts Lottery, which is overseen by the state treasurer's office, to run an ad favorable to him during the campaign. The ad, paid for by the Commonwealth, described the Massachusetts Lottery "the most successful state lottery America" and "consistently well-managed", echoing themes from Cahill's gubernatorial campaign. Both Cahill and Massachusetts Lottery Director Mark Cavanagh denied the allegations.[24] On October 18, e-mails released in conjunction with Cahill's lawsuit appeared to reveal that the campaign attempted to have the Lottery air a series of ads that praised the lottery's management. In the e-mails, Cahill's campaign media strategist Dane Strother told Meldrum to "Get the Lottery immediately cutting a spot and get it up...Needs to focus on the Lottery being the best in the country and above reproach." Two days later, Cahill's senior adviser Scott Campbell wrote, "I think the first thing is to figure out what/where/how we want to do this ... with Lottery people."[27]

On April 2, 2012, Cahill was indicted by a Grand Jury on charges that he used $1.65 million in Massachusetts State Lottery advertising to aid his campaign for governor.[28] On December 12, 2012, a mistrial was declared in the corruption case after the jury failed to reach a verdict on two counts of conspiracy.[29]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[30] Tossup October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[31] Tilt D October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[32] Tossup November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] Lean D October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[34] Tossup October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll Date Deval
Patrick (D)		 Charlie
Baker (R)		 Tim
Cahill (I)		 Jill
Stein (GR)
Rasmussen Reports June 24, 2009 41% 36% – –
The Boston Globe/UNH July 15–21, 2009 30% 20% 30% –
35% 41% – –
Rasmussen Reports October 22, 2009 34% 24% 23% –
Suffolk University Archived 2010-01-07 at the Wayback Machine November 4–8, 2009 38% 15% 26% –
Rasmussen Reports November 23, 2009 33% 28% 25% –
The Boston Globe/UNH January 2–6, 2010 30% 19% 23% –
Public Policy Polling January 7–9, 2010 29% 27% 21% –
Suffolk University February 21–24, 2010 33% 25% 23% 3%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010 35% 32% 19% –
Rasmussen Reports April 5, 2010 35% 27% 23% –
April 17 – Baker secures Republican nomination at convention; Mihos eliminated
Rasmussen Reports May 10, 2010 45% 31% 14% 1%
Suffolk University May 25, 2010 42% 29% 14% 8%
Rasmussen Reports June 21, 2010 41% 34% 16% –
The Boston Globe/UNH June 17–23, 2010 38% 31% 9% 2%
Rasmussen Reports July 22, 2010 38% 32% 17% –
Statehouse News August 29–31, 2010 34% 28% 18% 4%
Rasmussen Reports September 1, 2010 39% 34% 18% –
Rasmussen Reports September 17, 2010 45% 42% 5% –
Suffolk University / 7 News September 16–19, 2010 41% 34% 14% 4%
The Boston Globe/UNH September 17–22, 2010 35% 34% 11% 4%
Western New England College September 19–23, 2010 39% 33% 16% 3%
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2010 47% 42% 6% –
Suffolk University 7 News October 10–12, 2010 46% 39% 10% 1%
Public Opinion Strategies October 11–13, 2010 35% 42% 10% 2%
Rasmussen Reports October 18, 2010 47% 42% 6% –
Western New England College October 22, 2010 44% 36% 8% 5%
Boston Globe October 24, 2010 43% 39% 8% 2%
Suffolk University/7News October 25–27, 2010 46% 39% 9% 2%
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2010 46% 44% 6% —
Western New England College October 24–28, 2010 42% 37% 11% 3%
Results (for comparison) [November 2, 2010] [ 48.4% ] [ 42.0% ] [ 8.0% ] [ 1.4% ]
Hypothetical polling
with Christy Mihos
Poll source Dates administered Deval Patrick Christy Mihos Jill Stein Tim Cahill
Rasmussen Reports June 24, 2009 40% 41% –– ––
The Boston Globe/UNH July 15–21, 2009 31% 18% –– 31%
40% 41% –– ––
Rasmussen Reports August 20, 2009 35% 40% –– ––
Rasmussen Reports October 22, 2009 34% 23% –– 23%
Suffolk University Archived 2010-01-07 at the Wayback Machine November 4–8, 2009 36% 20% –– 26%
Rasmussen Reports November 23, 2009 32% 26% –– 28%
The Boston Globe/UNH January 2–6, 2010 32% 19% –– 23%
Public Policy Polling January 7–9, 2010 28% 21% –– 25%
Suffolk University February 21–24, 2010 34% 19% 3% 26%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010 34% 19% –– 30%
Rasmussen Reports April 5, 2010 38% 15% –– 33%
with Grace Ross
Poll source Dates administered Grace Ross Charlie Baker Tim Cahill
Rasmussen Reports May 10, 2010 27% 32% 16%

Fundraising

As of October 31, 2010.[35] Shading indicates candidate with the highest amount.

Candidate (Party) Raised Spent Balance
Tim Cahill (I) $570,345.01 $277,655.73 $292,689.28
Charlie Baker (R) $736,877.30 $491,089.99 $245,787.31
Deval Patrick (D) $606,991.19 $459,858.16 $147,133.03
Jill Stein (G) $64,454.75 $22,068.50 $42,386.25

Results

Results by municipality
Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2010[36]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Deval Patrick (incumbent) 1,112,283 48.42 Decrease7.21
Republican Charlie Baker 964,866 42.00 Increase6.67
Independent Tim Cahill 184,395 8.03 Increase1.06
Green-Rainbow Jill Stein 32,895 1.43 Decrease0.51
Write-in All others 2,600 0.11 Decrease0.01
Total votes 2,297,039
  Blank 22,924
Turnout 2,319,963
Majority 147,417 6.41
Democratic hold Swing –13.88

Results by county

2010 United States gubernatorial election in Massachusetts (by county) [37]
County Patrick % Patrick # Baker % Baker # Others % Others # Total #
Barnstable43.8%47,12447.0%50,6099.2%9,876107,609
Berkshire70.3%30,26921.5%9,2668.2%3,52743,062
Bristol46.3%81,05941.8%73,22011.8%20,724175,003
Dukes57.6%4,90832.3%2,75710.1%8628,527
Essex43.2%116,36047.5%127,9649.3%25,148269,472
Franklin60.8%17,06824.4%6,83814.9%4,17028,076
Hampden45.4%62,81639.5%54,65315.1%20,857138,326
Hampshire58.4%33,31728.0%15,99413.6%7,75257,063
Middlesex50.8%283,22140.6%226,2728.7%48,481557,974
Nantucket50.7%2,45438.2%1,84611.1%5384,838
Norfolk43.80%119,80643.81%119,85012.4%33,882273,538
Plymouth38.3%74,35549.8%96,59211.9%23,105194,052
Suffolk67.0%125,96124.9%46,8228.1%15,292188,075
Worcester41.4%113,56548.2%132,18310.4%28,440274,188

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2010".
  2. 1 2 Loscocco declared he would drop out and endorse the Republican ticket. However, there was no way to drop out by that time, so he remained on the ballot.Bierman, Noah; Levenson, Michael; Ellement, John R. (October 1, 2010). "'I won't give in,' Cahill declares as he vows to stay in race". The Boston Globe. Retrieved October 5, 2010.
  3. ↑ Phillips, Frank; Levenson, Michael (November 3, 2010). "Patrick roars to 2d term". The Boston Globe. Retrieved November 3, 2010.
  4. ↑ "Massachusetts primary election 2010". The Washington Post. September 14, 2010. Retrieved November 15, 2010.
  5. 1 2 Chabot, Hillary (April 2, 2009). "Deval: I will run again". Boston Herald. Archived from the original on April 3, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  6. ↑ Ebbert, Stephanie (June 2, 2010). "Always on the run: Despite lack of funds, mounting string of losses, quixotic politicians carry on for their causes". The Boston Globe. Retrieved June 2, 2010.
  7. ↑ Alexander Burns (February 5, 2010). "Ross launches Patrick primary challenge". Politico.
  8. 1 2 Hillary Chabot, Christine McConville & Jessica Van Sack (July 8, 2009). "Charles D. Baker leaving Harvard Pilgrim to run for governor". Boston Herald. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  9. ↑ "Baker a favorite for 2010 among Massachusetts delegates". Politicker.com.
  10. ↑ "Charlie Baker 2010 Governor". Draftcharlie.com. Archived from the original on March 1, 2010. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  11. ↑ Matt Collette (April 27, 2009). "Mihos plans another run for governor". The Boston Globe. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  12. ↑ "GOP throws full support behind Charlie Baker for governor". Boston Herald. Retrieved April 23, 2010.
  13. ↑ Shore, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Kerry Healey". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on August 21, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  14. ↑ Shore, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Bob Hedlund". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on January 28, 2010. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  15. ↑ Shore won, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Joe Malone". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on April 24, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  16. ↑ "Draft Mike Sullivan for Governor". Draftsullivan.com. Archived from the original on March 13, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  17. ↑ Shore, South. "Profile of Potential Candidates: Michael Sullivan". Red Mass Group. Archived from the original on August 10, 2009. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Baker a favorite for 2010 among Massachusetts delegates". Politicker.com.
  19. ↑ "Charlie Baker 2010 Governor". Draftcharlie.com. Archived from the original on March 1, 2010. Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  20. ↑ "Tim for Governor". Archived from the original on March 5, 2010. Retrieved September 18, 2010.
  21. ↑ Stein to jump into gov race with Green-Rainbow bid Boston Herald, January 7, 2010
  22. ↑ "Gubernatorial candidate Jill Stein of Green-Rainbow Party, introduces lieutenant governor candidate Richard P. Purcell, of Holyoke". The Republican (Springfield). April 3, 2010.
  23. ↑ "2010 State Election Candidates". Secretary of the Commonwealth, Elections Division. Retrieved October 5, 2010.
  24. 1 2 Johnson, Glen (October 8, 2010). "Mass. Lottery chief: No ad collusion with Cahill". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
  25. ↑ Phillips, Frank (October 7, 2010). "Cahill files lawsuit alleging dirty political tricks in Mass". The Boston Globe.
  26. ↑ Stephanie Ebbert and Michael Levenson (October 9, 2010). "Campaign crossfire hotter still". The Boston Globe. Retrieved January 5, 2012.
  27. ↑ Denise Lavoie; Glen Johnson (October 14, 2010). "E-mails appear to link Mass. candidate, lottery ad". The Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 15, 2015. Retrieved April 3, 2012.
  28. ↑ Phillips, Frank (April 2, 2012). "Timothy Cahill indicted on charges of using official funds for campaign-boosting ads". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 2, 2012.
  29. ↑ Cassidy, Chris (December 12, 2012). "Tim Cahill 'thrilled' that mistrial declared". Boston Herald. Retrieved December 12, 2012.
  30. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  31. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  32. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  33. ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  34. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  35. ↑ Source: "OCPF Searchable Campaign Finance Database & Electronic Filing System". Massachusetts Office of Campaign and Political Finance. November 1, 2010. Archived from the original on July 26, 2010. Retrieved November 15, 2010.
  36. ↑ "2010 Return of Votes Complete Statistics" (PDF). Massachusetts Elections Division. December 1, 2010. Retrieved December 4, 2010.
  37. ↑ https://electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/search/year_from:1970/year_to:2022/office_id:3/stage:General

Debates

Campaign

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