Initial advances

In May, the Taliban captured 15 districts from the Afghan government, including Nirkh and Jalrez districts in Maidan Wardak Province.^[123][124] Among the locations captured was the Dahla Dam in Kandahar Province, Afghanistan's second largest dam.^[125] During the month, 405 Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) troops and 260 civilians were killed in clashes, while the Afghan Ministry of Defense claimed to have killed 2,146 Taliban fighters^[74][69] including a Taliban divisional commander, Qari Jabar.^[29] By the end of May, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden had completely withdrawn their forces from Afghanistan.^[126]

In June, the Taliban captured 69 districts from the Afghan government. They entered the cities of Kunduz and Puli Khumri^{[123][127][92]} and besieged Mazar-i-Sharif.^[128] Among the locations they captured was Afghanistan's main border crossing with Tajikistan and the Saydabad District in Maidan Wardak Province, which is called the gateway to Afghanistan's capital city, Kabul.^[129][130] They captured 700 trucks and Humvees from the Afghan security forces, and dozens of armored vehicles, Boeing Insitu ScanEagle drones and artillery systems.^[80][131]

An Afghan Air Force Mil Mi-17 was shot down by the Taliban, killing three pilots, while a UH-60 Black Hawk was damaged on the ground after an outpost belonging to the Afghan Armed Forces was shelled by the Taliban in the same month.^[51][79] On 16 June, Taliban fighters executed 22 surrendering Afghan Army commandoes in the town of Dawlat Abad. Among the dead was Major Sohrab Azimi, son of retired General Zahir Azimi. He was posthumously promoted to brigadier general.^[132] Eyewitnesses said that the language the Taliban fighters spoke among themselves was foreign, indicating that the fighters were not from the area.^[133] During the month, 703 Afghan National Security Forces and 208 civilians were killed in clashes, while the Ministry of Defense claimed to have killed 1,535 Taliban fighters.^[74][69] On 19 June, President Ashraf Ghani replaced the Afghan National Army chief of staff, and the defense and interior ministers.^[134] By the end of June, all Resolute Support Mission's member countries had withdrawn their troops, except for the UK, Turkey, and the US.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin meeting with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in June 2021

On 22 June, the Taliban captured Sher Khan Bandar, Afghanistan's main Tajikistan border crossing,^[135] and 13 districts fell to them within 24 hours.^[136] On the same day, there was heavy fighting in Baghlan Province when Afghan forces launched an operation on the outskirts of Pul-e-Khumri, the provincial capital, killing 17 Taliban fighters, including Qari Khalid, a Taliban divisional commander.^[27] Simultaneously, Taliban forces took control of Balkh and encircled Mazar-i-Sharif, the capital of Balkh Province.^[137][138] On 23 June, Taliban and Afghan forces clashed inside Pul-e Khumri.^[139]

On 25 June, the Taliban took control of the Shinwari District and the Ghorband District in Parwan Province, north of Kabul.^[140] That same day NBC News reported that the Taliban "were surprised at the speed of their advance and had avoided capturing some targets so as not to run afoul of the US",^[141] and the Afghan government launched a program called National Mobilization that aimed to arm militia groups to fight the Taliban.^[142] Meanwhile, Taliban deputy emir Sirajuddin Haqqani issued a series of instructions on Voice of Jihad for the governance of territories seized in the offensive. FDD's Long War Journal researcher Thomas Joscelyn argued that Haqqani's statements "read like those that would be issued by the head of a nation".^[15]

Afghan pro-government forces assemble in Jowzjan Province

On 27 June, Chaki Wardak District and Saydabad District fell to the Taliban after at least 50 Afghan troops surrendered and were captured by the Taliban. On the same day Rustaq District, Shortepa District and the Arghistan District fell to the Taliban. ToloNews reported that 108 districts fell to the Taliban in the last two months and the Afghan army had retaken only 10.^[143][144] On 29 June, the Taliban launched an offensive on Ghazni, causing violent clashes within the city.^[145]

Escalation

Frontiers and major border crossings captured by the Taliban
Frontier	Province	Country	Date captured
Sher Khan Bandar	Kunduz	Tajikistan	22 June
Ishkashim	Badakhshan		5 July
Wakhjir Pass		China	8 July
Islam Qala	Herat	Iran	9 July
Abu Nasr Farahi	Farah
Torghundi	Herat	Turkmenistan
Spin Boldak	Kandahar	Pakistan	14 July
Zaranj	Nimruz	Iran	6 August
Aqina	Faryab	Turkmenistan	14 August
Torkham	Nangarhar	Pakistan	15 August
Hairatan	Balkh	Uzbekistan
Ghulam Khan	Khost	Pakistan	16 August

In July, the Taliban captured 64 districts from the Afghan government and entered the second and third largest cities of Afghanistan, Kandahar and Herat respectively.^{[11][146][147]} During the month, 335 Afghan National Security Forces and 189 civilians were killed during the clashes with the Taliban, while the Ministry of Defense claimed to have killed 3,159 Taliban fighters.^[74][69] Around 1,500 Afghan soldiers deserted into Tajikistan, according to its Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) envoy.^[75] Iranian media reported that around 300 Afghan soldiers and civilians had crossed the border and entered Iran to escape the Taliban.^[75]

On 2 July, Germany and Italy withdrew their troops from Afghanistan, and US troops left Bagram Airfield, handing it to the Afghan Armed Forces.^[148] Subsequent US airstrikes against the Taliban were led from the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and the US Navy carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf, requiring the warplanes to travel several hours to reach their targets. According to a US defence official, these airstrikes amounted to only "a handful" each day.^[149][150]

On the first weekend of July, hundreds of armed women took to the streets of northern and central Afghanistan in demonstrations against the Taliban offensive, the largest one taking place in Firozkoh, the capital of Ghor Province. The provincial governor Abdulzahir Faizzada reported in an interview with The Guardian that many Afghan women, some of whom recently escaped the Taliban, have been learning to use firearms in order to defend themselves, with some having already battled the Taliban. Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid denounced the reports as "propaganda" and declared that "women will never pick up guns against us".^[151] During the weekend, the Taliban captured nine border posts belonging to the Afghan Army in Kunar Province near the border with Pakistan, during which 39 personnel of the Afghan Army surrendered to the Taliban while another 31 fled to Pakistan.^[75]

On 5 July, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon announced the deployment of 20,000 troops on the Afghanistan–Tajikistan border, to prevent a spillover of the war into Tajikistan. On 9 July, the Collective Security Treaty Organization announced that the Russian Federation would deploy 7,000 troops on the border as well, to aid Tajikistan.^[152][153] On 7 July, pro-government forces defeated a Taliban attempt to capture the city of Qala e Naw.^[43] On 8 July, the Taliban captured the strategically important Karukh District in Herat Province.^[147]

On 8 July, Abubaker Muradi, deputy head of National Directorate of Security (NDS), and Khir Mohammad Arefi, a commander of a territorial army, along with dozens of other security personnel surrendered to the Taliban without a fight. Khan Jan Zafar and Mohammad Farid Akhizai, two members of the provincial council, also surrendered to the Taliban on the same day.^[36]

Armed locals protest in support of the Afghan government in Jowzjan Province on 13 July 2021

On 10 July, the Taliban captured Panjwayi District in Kandahar Province^[154] and surrounded the city of Ghazni in central Afghanistan.^[155] The border crossings of Torghundi with Turkmenistan and Islam Qala with Iran were captured by the Taliban. During the capture of the Islam Qala border crossing, some Afghan security and customs officials fled across the border with Iran to escape the Taliban.^[156][157] On 11 July, Australian Defence Minister Peter Dutton announced the end of its military presence in Afghanistan, with the last 80 personnel having left the country in recent weeks.^[158] On 12 July, the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan Austin S. Miller stepped down from his post.^[159] The same day Afghanistan's foreign ministry announced that they have killed Taliban's intelligence chief, Kari Shagasi, and arrested two of his followers in Logar province.^[24] As of 12 July, the Taliban had seized 148 districts from the Afghan government.^[11] On 14 July, the Afghan border post at Spin Boldak was captured by the Taliban force;^[160] Reuters Indian journalist Danish Siddiqui was killed there while covering the fighting two days later.^[161]

On 12 July, Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow ordered the deployment of troops, heavy weapons, and armour on the Afghanistan–Turkmenistan border, to prevent a spillover of the conflict into Turkmenistan.^[162] On 16 July, Uzbekistan hosted a conference between a number of the region's leaders and foreign diplomats, including Afghan President Ghani, to promote peace and prevent a civil war.^[163] Later that month, the Taliban captured Wakhan District and so was also in control of the Afghanistan-China border.^[164]

On 21 July, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley reported that half of all Afghan districts were under Taliban control and that momentum was "sort of" on the side with the Taliban.^[165] On 22 July, the Pentagon confirmed that the United States Air Force had carried out four airstrikes in Afghanistan at the request of Afghan officials. Two airstrikes were aimed at destroying military equipment captured by the Taliban from Afghan security forces; one artillery gun and one military vehicle were destroyed.^[59] Meanwhile, the battle for Kandahar city continued, with the settlement being essentially besieged by the rebels. All surrounding districts save for Daman District had fallen under Taliban control, and only Kandahar's air field (crucial for supplying the local security forces) remained under full government control. According to the FDD's Long War Journal, the fall of Daman District to the insurgents would make it extremely difficult for the government forces to hold Kandahar city.^[166] On 22 July 100 people were killed in a mass shooting in Spin Boldak, Kandahar Province.^[167] Pro-government forces gained victories in Bamyan Province, as local militias and the police retook the districts of Sayghan and Kahmard from the Taliban,^[168] and in Herat Province, where the government recaptured Karakh District.^[147] On 24 July, the government imposed a curfew between 10 p.m. and 4 a.m. in all but three provinces of the country, to "curb violence and reduce the movements and advances of the Taliban".^[169][170]

Situation on 25 July

On 25 July, a key Taliban commander, Mufti Ismael, was injured and five of his guards were killed in a mine blast targeting their convoy in Faryab province.^[30]

On 26 July, a report by representative of the United Nations Deborah Lyons showed a sharp increase in civilian deaths as a consequence of the fighting between the government and the Taliban. Lyons implored both sides to protect civilians as she says that women and children are being killed.^[171] The same day around 46 Afghan troops, including 5 officers, sought refuge in Pakistan after they were unable to defend their military post.^[75]

On 28 July, a delegation from the Taliban met in Tianjin with the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, who pledged the People's Republic of China's support for the Taliban on the condition that they cut ties with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (as of 2002, 400 militants in Xinjiang region had been trained in Taliban training camps)^{[172][173][174][175]} vowing to "bring the Taliban back into the political mainstream" and offering to host peace talks between the Government of Afghanistan and the Taliban.^[176]

By 31 July, the Taliban had entered the provincial capitals of both Helmand and Herat provinces, capturing scores of districts in the provinces and also capturing border crossings with Iran and Turkmenistan.^[177][178] Among others, Herat's important Karakh District was again overrun by the rebels. The insurgents also cut the road between Herat International Airport and Herat city, although the airport remained under government control. The Long War Journal argued that the government's ability to keep control of Herat city without the airport supplying the defenders was questionable. Meanwhile, Kandahar city remained contested.^[147]

Afghan National Army soldiers in combat with the Taliban

From 1 to 2 August, the Safian, Qala-e-Kohneh and Kariz areas on the outskirts of Lashkar Gah fell to the Taliban. Clashes between Taliban and the government also took place in the suburbs of the city, with the Afghan Air Force and United States Air Force attacking Taliban positions. On 2 August, 40 civilians were killed and more than 100 wounded in the fighting.^[179] After capturing Lashkar Gah's radio station, the Taliban began broadcasting their Voice of Sharia programming. The rebels also began to attack the city's airport. Meanwhile, the government dispatched reinforcements to prevent the city from falling to the insurgents.^[180]

On 3 August, 13 people—including five attackers—were killed in a Taliban bombing and shootout in Kabul.^[181] The inghimasi-style operation, carried out by the Taliban's "Martyrdom Battalion", aimed at killing Defence Minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi; he survived the attack. Mohammadi was described by the Long War Journal as one of the key government figures responsible for countering the Taliban offensive.^[33] As of 5 August, 115 Afghan National Security Forces personnel and 58 civilians were killed during the clashes with the Taliban, while the Ministry of Defense claimed to have killed 3,197 Taliban fighters since the start of the month.^[74][69]

Fall of the provincial capitals

On 6 August, the Taliban assassinated Dawa Khan Minapal, head of Government Media and Information Centre, in Kabul.^[182] On the same day, heavy fighting was reported in Jowzjan Province as the Taliban entered the provincial capital, Sheberghan. The Taliban confirmed responsibility for the killing of Minapal and warned that it would target senior administration officials in retaliation for increasing airstrikes.^[183] On the same day, the Taliban captured the provincial capital of Nimroz Province, Zaranj, making it the first capture by the Taliban of a provincial capital since the 2001 American invasion.^[184] Taliban executed dozens of captured soldiers in the province, and gouged out eyes of some.^{[185][186][187]} The rebels proceeded to open the local prisons, allowing many inmates to escape. As Zaranj had reportedly been captured with almost no resistance, Afghan journalist Bilal Sarwary voiced suspicions that someone had "sold" the city to the Taliban.^[188] Social media posts suggested that the Taliban were welcomed by some residents of the city which has a long history of lawlessness. Images appearing on social media showed Taliban fighters driving captured military Humvees, luxury SUVs and pickups through the streets while flying Taliban flags as local residents—mostly youths and young men—cheered them on.^[189] A UN envoy also warned the country was entering a 'deadlier phase' of the war.^[190] The governments of Britain and United States warned its citizens to leave Afghanistan "immediately" amid the Taliban advance and the worsening security situation.^[191][192]

On 7 August, the Taliban had captured Sheberghan, making it the second capture of a provincial capital.^[193] Abdul Rashid Dostum, the ex-warlord and the strongman who had traditionally dominated the city, took his followers and fled to Khwaja Du Koh District, the only area in Jowzjan Province which was still government-held. Meanwhile, pro-government forces had been reduced to a pocket of resistance in Lashkar Gah, while Kandahar and Herat remained fiercely contested. Insurgents also launched repeated raids on the other provincial capitals.^[194] On the same day, US B-52 bombers carried out airstrikes against Taliban in Afghanistan, operating from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.^[195] The United States was also using armed Reaper drones and AC-130 Spectre gunships which reportedly began daily attacks against targets around Kandahar, Herat, and Lashkar Gah.^[195] The remaining ground defense of Lashkar Gah and Kandahar was mostly organized by hundreds of Afghan Commandos who had become encircled by the insurgents; as these soldiers were the Afghan military's best-trained and most highly motivated troops, the FDD's Long War Journal argued that their loss would be a major setback in regards to the Afghan security forces' future effectiveness.^[41] USS Ronald Reagan was launching fast jets to provide support to the missions.^[196] The American Embassy in Kabul urged all Americans to leave the country immediately due to increased security concerns, and the inability of the embassy to guarantee the safety of American citizens due to the reduction of staff at the embassy.^[197]

The following day, the Taliban captured the cities of Kunduz and Sar-e Pol after heavy clashes with the Afghan National Security Forces. In the battles for the two cities, mass desertions were reported, as many Afghan National Army soldiers had been demotivated by the rapid rebel advance as well as Taliban propaganda. Pro-government forces were only able to hold onto Kunduz's military base and airport.^[198][199] Reporters described the capture of Kunduz as "the most significant gain for the Taliban since they launched their offensive in May" with the city being one of Afghanistan's largest settlements, well connected to other notable locations in the country including Kabul and considered part of a major Central Asian drug smuggling route.^[200] The battle for Kunduz involved the Red Unit, the Taliban elite shock troops, and resulted in the release of hundreds of prisoners including Taliban commanders.^[41] The city of Taloqan was also taken by the Taliban late 8 August, making it the fifth provincial capital to fall.^[201] Government forces retreated from the city after noon,^[202] retaking Warsaj District and Farkhar District.^[203]

Taliban fighters resting at a village, August 2021

On 9 August, the Taliban captured Aybak, the capital of Samangan province.^[204] Deputy governor Sefatullah Samangani told the AFP news agency that government forces had withdrawn from the city without a fight after community representatives had requested that it be spared more violence.^[205] On the same day, Asif Azimi, a former senator from Samangan and a prominent warlord from the Jamiat-e Islami party, defected to the Taliban. Azimi said hundreds of men under his command had also defected to the Taliban.^[44] President Ashraf Ghani and other political leaders also agreed to form a joint command center to coordinate and assist with public uprising forces.^[206]

Fighting intensified around Mazar-i-Sharif on 10 August. In Farah, capital of Farah Province, the Taliban had taken control of the governor's compound after heavy fighting between the Taliban and government forces.^[207] They had also taken control of the police headquarters and prison. Although heavy fighting continued, Farah became the seventh provincial capital to fall.^[208] An eighth provincial capital, Puli Khumri of Baghlan Province, was also captured on 10 August.^[209][210]

On 11 August, Fayzabad of Badakhshan Province became the ninth provincial capital to be captured by the Taliban. After the Taliban reached the city gates, government forces decided to retreat to Farkhar District and join with security forces there from Taloqan's fall.^[211] Prior to the US invasion, Fayzabad had been the headquarters of the Northern Alliance.^[212] On the same day, the Taliban captured Kunduz Airport and a major military base belonging to 217 Pamir Corps after hundreds of Afghan troops surrendered, securing Taliban control over their military equipment in Kunduz. The military base was responsible for security of Kunduz, Takhar and Badakhshan and was one of the eight such installations in Afghanistan;^[213] its fall further reduced the suffering morale of the Afghan National Army, while effectively making a government counter-offensive to relieve Mazar-i-Sharif impossible.^[214] Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) quoted two local councillors who said that the entire 217th Pamir Corps surrendered to Taliban forces in Kunduz. A Taliban spokesman also posted a video on Twitter which purportedly showed government soldiers joining the militants' ranks.^[215] The besieged troops of the 217 Pamir Corps had held out for three days before surrendering; much military equipment was captured by the rebels at the base and airport.^[214] Additionally, the day saw General Wali Mohammad Ahmadzai's replacement by General Haibatullah Alizai as the new Afghan Army chief of staff. The outgoing General Ahmadzai served as an Afghan army chief of staff since he assumed the post in June 2021.^[34]

On 12 August, the Taliban captured the city of Ghazni, making it the tenth provincial capital to fall within a week. The city lies along the Kabul–Kandahar Highway, serving as a gateway between Kabul and the strongholds in the south.^{[216][217][218]} The Governor of Ghazni Province was soon arrested in Wardak for "surrendering without a fight" in exchange for safe passage.^[219] On the same day, the central government offered a proposal of "power-sharing" in lieu of ceasefire; the Taliban rejected this offer stating that it wanted to establish a new Islamic emirate.^[220] The same day also saw the fall of strategic Shindand Air Base in Herat^[221] and capture of two UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters stationed in the Air Base.^[83] Late that night, Herat, Afghanistan's third-largest city and the capital of the eponymous province, fell to the Taliban.^[222] The fall of Herat, after two weeks of siege, forced Ismail Khan and other top government officials and forces to seek refuge at a provincial airport and the army corps outside the city.^[39] In the morning, Khan along with Abdul Rahman Rahman, deputy interior minister, and Hasib Sediqi, Chief of National Directorate of Security in Herat, surrendered to the Taliban. The commander of 207 Zafar Corps, Khyal Nabi Ahmadzai,^[223][224] and thousands of government forces also surrendered to the Taliban.^[39] According to the local officials, an entire Afghan army Corps in the city of Herat crumbled.^[225][226] By this point, they controlled 11 of Afghanistan's 34 provincial capitals.^[227] The Taliban had also launched an assault on Qala e Naw, capturing the city after failing to do so in July.^[228][229]

Overnight, Kandahar was captured by the Taliban: heavy clashing around the city led to the withdrawal of the ANA, thus increasing the number of provincial capitals controlled by the Taliban to thirteen.^[230][231]

After several weeks of fighting in the Battle of Lashkargah, the city of Lashkargah, capital of Helmand Province, was captured by the Taliban on 13 August.^[232] On the same day, the Taliban took control of Chaghcharan (also called Firozkoh), the capital city of Ghor Province.^[233] Officials said the city fell without any fighting, becoming the fifteenth provincial capital to fall to the Taliban within a week.^[234] Firozkoh had a population of nearly 132,000 people.^[233] Later on 13 August, the Taliban captured Puli Alam, Qalat and Tarinkot, the provincial capitals of Logar, Zabul and Uruzgan provinces respectively.^[101][235] Government loyalists put up a determined defense in Logar before being overrun, while Zabul and Uruzgan were only surrendered to the rebels after the local defenders judged their situation to be untenable and opted to retreat. In contrast, Qalat and Fayroz Koh fell without any fighting. Qalat had been deprived of defenders who had been sent to Kandahar, and Fayroz Koh officials preferred to negiotiate a takeover instead of being "steamrolled by the Taliban offensive". The Long War Journal argued that the fall of these provincial capitals allowed the Taliban to besiege Kabul, and described the Afghan government as being on the "verge of collapse".^[236]

US President Joe Biden in a video conference with Vice President Harris and the US National Security team, discussing the situation in Afghanistan on 14 August 2021

On 14 August 2021, the Taliban captured seven provincial capital cities; Gardez, Sharana, Asadabad, Maymana, Mihtarlam,^[237] Nili,^[238] and Mazar-i-Sharif, the fourth-largest city in Afghanistan. Two long-time anti-Taliban warlords, namely Dostum and Atta Muhammad Nur, fled to Uzbekistan.^{[239][102][240][241]} Abas Ebrahimzada, a lawmaker from the Balkh province, said that in Mazar-i-Sharif, the national army surrendered first which caused the pro-government militia and other forces to lose morale and surrender in the face of Taliban assault on the city.^[242] Zabihullah Mohmand, the corps commander of Mazar-i-Sharif, also surrendered to the Taliban.^[35] Following the loss of the city, Atta Muhammad Nur stated in a Facebook post that his defeat in Mazar-i-Sharif was planned and held the government forces responsible for the defeat. He did not specify who was behind the conspiracy, nor provide any detail other than saying that he and Dostum are in a safe place.^[242] Later, Taliban forces also entered Maidan Shar, center of Maidan Wardak Province. At this point, the rebels had encircled Kabul, while the Afghan National Army had descended into chaos following its rapid defeat across the country. Only the 201st Corps and 111th Division, both based at the Afghan capital, were left operational.^[243]

Early on 15 August 2021, the Taliban entered Jalalabad, the capital of Nangarhar Province, unopposed.^[244] It was the twenty-sixth provincial capital to fall, and its capture left Kabul as the last major city under Afghan government control.^[245] Soon afterward, Maidan Shar,^[246] Khost,^[247][248] Bamyan,^[249] Mahmud-i-Raqi,^[250] Charikar^[251] and Parun^[250] also fell. Afghan commandos managed to successfully evacuate Kandahar Airport on the same day; the airport had still been held by government loyalists up to this point.^[252] Security forces surrendered Bagram Airfield to the Taliban; the airbase housed around 5,000 Taliban and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant prisoners.^[253]

Also on 15 August, authorities in Uzbekistan detained 84 Afghan soldiers who had crossed the border, and provided medical aid to both the detained soldiers and a group of soldiers which had gathered on the Afghan side of the Termez-Khairaton bridge.^[254]

On 16 August, the Khost Protection Force (KPF), a militia unit created by the CIA in the early years of the US invasion, surrendered to Taliban forces in eastern Afghanistan after attempting to flee to Paktia Province. According to local journalists cited by Interfax, about 6,000 KPF in 1,200 vehicles surrendered to the Taliban, with a video of the surrender being posted to social media.^[255]

NATO airlifts

British soldiers deploying to Kabul to assist in the NATO withdrawal, 13 August 2021

On 12 August, a few hours after the fall of Herat, the United States and United Kingdom governments announced the deployment of 3,000 and 600 of their troops, respectively, to the Kabul airport to secure the airlifting of their nationals, embassy staff, and the Afghan civilians who worked with the coalition forces out of the country. Officials said that the first deployment would occur in the next 24 to 48 hours, and that it would be completed by the end of the month. According to those sources, charter aircraft were to be used for the evacuation, as the Kabul airport still allowed commercial airliners to fly at the time; military aircraft were to be used if that became impossible. According to the British government, the evacuation and its timing had long been planned, but an Afghan official said that the timing was brought forward as the security situation rapidly deteriorated. In addition to the 3,000 US troops, an additional 3,500 were placed on standby in Kuwait in case the situation escalated to a renewed armed conflict with the Taliban.^{[256][257][258]} Canada announced that Canadian special forces units will be deployed to evacuate embassy personnel in Kabul, which houses Afghan families who have worked with Canadian staff in the past.^[259] The Danish and Norwegian governments announced that their embassies in Kabul would close for security reasons, and proceeded to evacuate their diplomatic staff and Afghans who worked alongside them.^[260]

Fall of Kabul

Taliban fighters in Kabul, 17 August 2021

On 15 August, despite issuing a statement saying it had no plans to take the Afghan capital "by force", the Taliban entered the outskirts of Kabul from multiple directions, including Kalakan District, Qarabagh District, and Paghman District.^[261] A citywide blackout and possible assault and inmate uprising at Pul-e-Charkhi prison was reported.^[262][263] Boeing CH-47 Chinook and Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters began landing at the American embassy in Kabul to carry out evacuations and diplomats were rapidly shredding classified documents.^[264]

The Afghan interior ministry announced that President Ghani had decided to relinquish power and an interim government led by the Taliban would be formed;^[265] former president Hamid Karzai was to be part of the negotiation team.^[266] The Taliban ordered its fighters to wait for a peaceful transfer of power and to not enter Kabul by force.^[267]

On 15 August it was reported that President Ghani had left the country for Tajikistan.^[268] Ghani's departure from Afghanistan was criticised by many Afghans and outside observers.^[269][270] Nikita Ishchenko, a spokesperson for Russia's embassy in Kabul, claimed that Ghani fled Afghanistan with four cars and helicopters full of money.^[271] Speaking later from the United Arab Emirates, Ghani said he left on the advice of government aides to avoid being lynched (Afghan President Mohammad Najibullah had been publicly hanged upon the previous Taliban takeover in 1996).^[272] He denied reports that he had taken large sums of money with him, noting that he had passed through customs on his arrival in the UAE.^[273] It was also considered "unlikely" by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), who nonetheless argues that Ghani took 500.000 US dollars with him while escaping.^[274][275]

US soldiers with Afghans evacuating Hamid Karzai International Airport on 21 August, after the Taliban captured Kabul.

Late on 15 August, an Afghan Air Force Embraer 314 and Uzbekistan Air Force MiG-29 collided mid-air, with both aircraft crashing in Uzbekistan's Surxondaryo Region. The pilots of both aircraft ejected and landed with parachutes.^[276] Earlier in the day, Uzbekistan said it had detained 84 Afghan soldiers who had crossed the border seeking medical assistance while fleeing the Taliban's offensives.^[277]

On 16 August, Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem said in an interview with Al Jazeera that war was over in Afghanistan. He said that the Taliban have achieved what they wanted, they will not allow Afghanistan's territory to be used against anyone, nor do they want to harm anyone.^[278] On the same day, Uzbekistan's prosecutor general office said that 22 military planes and 24 helicopters carrying around 585 Afghan soldiers had arrived in Uzbekistan. Around 158 Afghan soldiers crossed the Uzbekistan's border on foot.^[76]

The Pentagon confirmed the head of US Central Command in Qatar, General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., met Taliban leaders based in Qatar's capital Doha. The Taliban officials agreed to terms set by McKenzie for refugees to flee using Kabul Airport.^[279][280]

On 23 August, Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen indicated that they would be unwilling to extend the 31 August deadline for withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.^[281] The same day, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William J. Burns, held a secret meeting in Kabul with Taliban leader Abdul Ghani Baradar, who returned to Afghanistan from exile in Qatar, to discuss the 31 August deadline.^[282][283]

Taliban strategy

Drop in US support for the ANSF

According to Sami Sadat, a three-star general of the ANSF, the February 2020 US–Taliban deal resulted to an "effectively ... overnight" change in the rules for US air support for the Afghan armed forces, leading to a sudden increase in battle effectiveness by the Taliban. The April 2021 confirmation by US president Biden of the US pullout resulted in the loss of contractors, proprietary software and weapons systems including the Afghan army's helicopter missile-defence system. The Afghan army had been trained on a high-tech military model using helicopters, airstrikes and technically specialised reconnaissance units. According to Sadat, the loss of technical support made the US high-tech army model ineffective, losing helicopter support for resupplying military bases, and aerial and laser-guided weapons.^[110]

Ali Yawar Adili, country director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, said that Afghan officials—including Ghani—never expected that the US would be halting logistical and air support to the Afghan forces. Afghan troops were heavily dependent on logistical and air support provided by the US and they were deeply shocked when US support was withdrawn.^[114]

Military historian Frederick Kagan agreed that Biden's way of making, timing and announcing his April 2021 withdrawal decision was a key factor in the defeat of the ANSF. He argued that very few US allies, including NATO members, "have the capacity to provide their own advanced air power, air cover, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets".^[111]

Issues with Afghan forces

Foreign support for the Taliban

Local warlord loyalties

On 12 August, former US adviser Vali Nasr, said that there was "no kind of leadership that would give local warlords reasons for why they should resist the Taliban. So the more they see the Taliban victory is inevitable, the more the victory becomes inevitable, because they just cut their own deals with them".^[111]

Civilian exodus

Afghans fleeing aboard a US Boeing C-17 Globemaster III during the Fall of Kabul, 15 August 2021. The Taliban offensive resulted in an exodus of Afghans.

Taliban militants and civilians in front of Hamid Karzai International Airport, 17 August 2021

A US Marine escorting Afghan evacuees during the Kabul airlift, 19 August 2021

Repatriation operations from Afghanistan in August 2021

One of the consequences of the declining socio-political situation in Afghanistan was the increasing migration flow of citizens. The spillover effects of the Taliban offensive meant that thousands of civilians had started considering migrating. These migrants did not await the culmination of the war and started their move in the summer of 2021.

As the offensive was gathering pace, hundreds of Afghans in the north-east crossed across the border to Tajikistan in early July.^[319] By mid-July, Tajikistan reported that 1,000 civilians had crossed into its territory. Meanwhile, the government of Pakistan, which shares a long border with Afghanistan, ruled out taking more refugees on top of the existing ones residing there.^[320]

In late July, 1,500 migrants were detained along the Iranian border.^[321] Many others made the 1,000 mile (1,600 km) journey across Iran to cross into eastern Turkey;^[321] 200 Afghan migrants were intercepted by Turkey en route to Europe. Turkey announced the construction of a border barrier along the Iran–Turkey border, where many refugees cross into Turkey en route to Europe.^[321]

The government of Tajikistan committed to accepting up to 100,000 Afghan refugees as reported on 23 July, several weeks before the fall of Kabul.^[322]

On 7 August, Pakistan once again reported that it will not accept additional refugees, deploying its army along the border.^[323]

When Kabul fell on the 15th of August, thousands of Afghans attempting to flee the country rushed to the airport. In desperation, several people clung to the side of a US military plane, falling to their deaths when the plane took off. US troops eventually had to fire warning shots to clear paths for the aircraft, which were evacuating Afghan government officials.^[324]

On 17 August, India announced that it will issue an emergency e-visa to all Afghan nationals who want to come to the country, having "already received requests from Afghan Sikh and Hindu community leaders".^{[325][326][327]} Due to the sealed India–Pakistan border however, an influx of Afghan refugees coming through Pakistan was not a concern to the Indian government.^[328]

A small number of refugees entered Nepal via the India–Nepal border.^[329]

Both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan reported that they will temporarily host Afghan refugees as of the end of August 2021.^[330]

Equipment losses

According to a report published on the Oryx blog,^[80] since June, the Taliban captured 12 tanks (seven T-54s and five T-62s), 51 armoured fighting vehicles (46 M1117 ASVs, two M1117 Command & Controls and three M113 APCs), 61 mortars and artillery pieces (35 122mm D-30 howitzers, three 76 mm divisional gun M1942 (ZiS-3)s, one 120mm mortar, two 82mm M69 mortars, one 60mm mortar and 19 mortars of unknown origin), eight anti-aircraft guns (two 14.5mm KPV-1s and six 23mm ZU-23s), 16 helicopters (nine Mil Mi-17s, one Mil Mi-24V, four UH-60A Black Hawks and two MD 530Fs), six unmanned aerial vehicles (six Boeing Insitu ScanEagles), and 1,973 trucks, vehicles and jeeps from the Afghan armed forces.^[78][358] The Taliban also destroyed nine M1117 ASVs, four Mi-17s and three UH-60A BlackHawks, one DJI Mavic and 104 trucks, vehicles and jeeps. Oryx only counts destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available.^[78]

Since 2 July, US aircraft attacked military equipment captured by the insurgents, destroying D30 howitzers, tanks, MRAPs and Humvees.^[71]

US airmen evacuating their final CH-47 Chinook onto a C-17 Globemaster III at Kabul Airport in August 2021.

On 25 August, Alexander Mikheev, the head of the Russian state exporter Rosoboronexporter, told Interfax news agency that the Taliban had captured more than 100 Mi-17 Hip helicopters of various types. Mikheev also said that a large part of this helicopter fleet could be grounded as the fleet require repairs, maintenance and spare parts. The Guardian newspaper reported that Mikheev's estimate for the number of Russian-made helicopters in Afghanistan is significantly more than the reported inventory.^[359]

In the aftermath of the Taliban takeover, claims circulated that $85 billion worth of military equipment fell into Taliban hands. However, the estimated figure is inaccurate.^[360][361] Total US equipment and transportation funding for the Afghanistan Security Forces Fund from the 20-year period from 2001 to 2021 is estimated at $18 billion^[360] or $24 billion.^[361] The actual value of military equipment seized by the Taliban is significantly less, because by the time of the Taliban takeover, most of the military equipment had been used up, rendered inoperable, removed from Afghanistan, decommissioned, or destroyed.^[360][361] In the years and months preceding the 2021 Taliban offense, the US military had also removed a large amount of military equipment and weapons.^[360] In the period immediately prior to the withdrawal, the US destroyed 70 MRAPs, 27 Humvees, and 73 aircraft, as well as CRAM systems and armored vehicles.^[360][361] The total number of aircraft, vehicles, and other equipment seized by the Taliban is unknown, and possibly is not even known by the Taliban itself.^[362]

It is expected that the value and utility of the equipment will decrease significantly if, as expected, the Taliban is unable to maintain the equipment or make spare parts for some of it.^[360][361] The Taliban does have the capacity to maintain some equipment through cannibalization, skills learned from the internet, and mechanics who choose to work for the Taliban or are coerced into doing so. This capability is especially relevant for ground vehicles, which are more useful to the Taliban than the leftover aircraft.^[362] The Taliban also lacks the technical expertise to operate some captured equipment.^[360][362] For example, the Taliban lack trained pilots capable of operating Black Hawk helicopters, and likely also lack the expertise to operate some military encrypted radios and anti-IED jamming devices.^[362] On the other hand, the Taliban has used US-made small arms such as M16s and M4s, and could also train pilots to operate fixed-wing C-208s, PC-12s, and A-29s.^[362] Former US Army General Joseph Votel said that the majority of the captured equipment was not equipped with any sensitive US technology.^[363]

The Taliban could sell captured military equipment to generate revenue for the new Taliban government, Jonathan Schroden of the CNA Corp. wrote that "it seems likely that at least some of the Taliban's newfound small arms will find their way to Kashmir, the Middle East, Africa and beyond."^[362] US officials expressed concern that the weapons captured by the Taliban could be handed over to US rivals or used to target US interests in the region.^[364] Ben Wallace, UK defence minister, expressed concern that Taliban could sell the military equipment to shadowy mercenaries, such as the Wagner Group.^[365]

In September, images shared online on social media showed Iranian army trucks transporting US armored vehicles, which allegedly belonged to the Afghan army before the Taliban takeover, on a highway connecting the central city of Semnan to the city of Garmsar, southeast of the capital Tehran.^[364] The vehicles included Humvees and heavily armored mine-resistant vehicles. A social media channel also claimed that Iran has taken possession of some US tanks.^[366] Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, former Afghanistan's defense minister and one of the current leader of National Resistance Front, tweeted one of the images circulating online and called Iran a “bad neighbor.”^[367]

Human rights

Female MPs have gone into hiding since the offensive.^[368]

Protests and resistance

Protest in Rotterdam against the Taliban's take over, 21 August 2021

After the fall of Kabul, former Northern Alliance members and anti-Taliban figures formed a military alliance called the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, under the leadership of Ahmad Massoud and former Vice President Amrullah Saleh.^[369][370] They have based themselves in the Panjshir Valley, which was a major base of operations for the original Northern Alliance.^[10][371] On 17 August 2021, Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh declared himself caretaker President of Afghanistan in Panjshir Valley.^[372] With the fall of Kabul, former Northern Alliance members and other anti-Taliban forces based in Panjshir, led by Ahmad Massoud and former Vice President Amrullah Saleh, became the primary organized resistance to the Taliban in Afghanistan.^{[123][27][373]} The Afghan embassy in Tajikistan replaced their presidential portrait of Ghani with one of Saleh, and submitted a request to Interpol to have arrest warrants issued for Ghani, along with his chief advisor Fazel Mahmood and National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib, on charges of having stolen from the Afghan treasury.^[374] On 1 September, talks broke down and fighting resumed as the Taliban attacked resistance positions.^[375] On 6 September, the Taliban took full control of the Panjshir province, with resistance fighters retreating to the mountains to continue fighting within the province.^[376][377]

As of 3 September 2021, in addition to the opposition in the Panjshir, there are also districts in the centre of Afghanistan that are still in resistance against the Taliban, supported by ethnic and religious minorities.^[378]

Protests

Main article: 2021 Afghan protests

The Taliban immediately replaced the previous flag (left) with the traditional black-red-green colors, with their own white flag (right). The traditional flag became a symbol for resistance during anti-Taliban protests.^[379]

On 17 August, a small protest was held by several women in Kabul demanding equal rights for women, the first reported women's protest against the new regime.^[380] On 18 August, larger protests also attended by men emerged in three eastern Pashtun-dominated cities: Jalalabad, Khost, and Asadabad, with protestors waving the flag of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, and taking down the Taliban flag.^{[381][382][383]} In Jalalabad, the Taliban opened fire, killing three and wounding over a dozen.^[384] On 19 August, demonstrations spread to various parts of Kabul, including one large protest near Kabul Airport where cars and people waved the flag of the republic, and another with over 200 people gathered near the presidential palace in Kabul before it was violently dispersed by the Taliban.^{[379][385][386]} Protests continued in Khost and Asadabad as well, with the Taliban using violence to disperse protests in both. In Asadabad, protests were reported as swelling to the hundreds.^[384]

Creation of new state

More than three weeks after the fall of Kabul, the new Taliban rulers announced the creation of a government cabinet for the new state named Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The cabinet is all male, and is heavily dominated by ethnic Pashtuns, with only three members being of other ethnicity.^[387] Hasan Akhund was named acting prime minister.^[388]

As of March 13, 2022, there is no other country that has officially recognized the Taliban's new state.^[389][390] However, Turkish foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu has expressed the intention to internationally recognize the Islamic Emirate.^[391]

Potential al-Qaeda resurgence

According to a US defense official, the security vacuum left by the withdrawal of US military forces could create an opening for al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups to reorganize. The official added that, while the US would still maintain authority to strike al-Qaeda targets in Afghanistan, the lack of a robust US presence on the ground would hamper the ability to identify potential targets. The CENTCOM commander Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. said that he has not seen anything that would make him believe the Taliban would stop al-Qaeda from using Afghanistan to strengthen and rebuild.^[409]

British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said that the vacuum could give terrorist groups like al-Qaeda another chance for a safe haven.^[410]

On 8 August, the head of extremist monitoring group SITE, Rita Katz, said that the Taliban advance resembled the earlier days of the Syrian civil war amid al-Nusra Front's victories, "except now on a completely different scale, given the Taliban's horrifying momentum".^[411]

Kazakh political scientist Dosym Satpaev warned that a Taliban takeover could possibly pave a way for other fundamental Islamist forces in an attempt to form a merger state of Central Asia and Afghanistan.^[412]

Potential Jaish-e-Mohammed resurgence

After the Taliban seizure of Afghanistan, The Hindu claimed that many Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) cadres were released, the JeM and Taliban have held meetings and the JeM has been assured of all support in carrying out its terrorist activities in India.^[413] However, Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid, in an interview with India Today denied any meeting taking place between Taliban and JeM leadership. The spokesman also said that Taliban will not allow Afghanistan to be used against India or any other countries.^[414]