2016 Bolivian constitutional referendum
21 February 2016
Do you agree with the reform of Article 168 of the Political Constitution of the State so that the president and the vice president of the state can be re-elected twice continuously?
Results
Choice
 Votes  %
Yes 2,546,135 48.70%
No 2,682,517 51.30%
Valid votes 5,228,652 95.22%
Invalid or blank votes 262,267 4.78%
Total votes 5,490,919 100.00%
Registered voters/turnout 6,502,069 84.45%
Results by region

A constitutional referendum was held in Bolivia on Sunday, 21 February 2016. The proposed constitutional amendments would have allowed the president and vice president to run for a third consecutive term under the 2009 Constitution (which would be a fourth consecutive term, including their pre-2009 term).[1] The proposal was voted down by a 51.3% majority.[2]

Background

A referendum voter

Article 168 of the 2009 constitution allows the President and Vice-President to put themselves forward for re-election only once, limiting the number of terms to two. The governing party, the Movement for Socialism (MAS) sponsored an effort to amend this article. The referendum was authorized by a combined session of the Plurinational Legislative Assembly on 26 September 2015, by a vote of 112 to 41.[3][4] Law 757, which convenes the February referendum, was passed 113 to 43, and was promulgated on 5 November 2015.[5]

Bolivian elections are conducted under an "act of good governance," which prohibits electoral propaganda in the days before an election, and tightly regulates motorized transport. It was illegal to buy or consume alcohol for 48 hours prior to the referendum to ensure voters took note of their decision.[1]

A successful 'yes' vote would have allowed President Evo Morales and Vice President Álvaro García Linera to run for a fourth term in office in 2019. Morales had already been elected three times. The first time, in 2006, is not counted as it was before the two term limit was introduced by the 2009 constitution.[5]

Disinformation campaigns

In the run-up to the referendum, opponents claimed that Morales had fathered an out-of-wedlock child[6] named "Ernesto Fidel Morales" after Ernesto "Che" Guevera and Fidel Castro.[7] The story was "mostly fake news."[8] There had been a relationship, but never a child, and the woman had borrowed a child from her aunt to present to the press in support of the false allegations.[9] Referendum supporters claim that the allegations hurt Morales in the polls.[10]

Opinion polls

Pollster Date of
publication		 Yes No Undecided
IPSOS[11] 26 October 2015 49% 39% 11%
Mercados y Muestras[12] 5 December 2015 40% 54% 6%
IPSOS[13] 29 December 2015 45% 50% 5%
MORI[14] 11 January 2016 41% 37% 19%
IPSOS[15][16] 13 January 2016 38% 44% 14%
Captura Consulting[17] 10 February 2016 44% 41% 15%
MORI[18] 12 February 2016 40% 40% 11%
IPSOS[19] 40% 41% 15%
Mercados y Muestras[20] 14 February 2016 28% 47% 25%

Results

Choice Votes %
For2,546,13548.70
Against2,682,51751.30
Invalid/blank votes262,267–
Total votes5,490,919100
Registered voters/turnout6,502,06984.45
Source: OEP

Aftermath

In September 2017 the Movement for Socialism applied to the Plurinational Constitutional Court to abolish term limits. In November the court ruled in favour of their abolition, citing the American Convention on Human Rights.[21] The ruling allowed Morales to run for re-election in the 2019 elections.[22]

References

  1. 1 2 "Bolivia's Re-election Referendum: The case for Yes and No". Latin Correspondent. Archived from the original on 19 February 2016. Retrieved 18 February 2016.
  2. ↑ Dan Collyns; Jonathan Watts. "Bolivian referendum goes against Evo Morales as voters reject fourth term". The Guardian. Retrieved 28 May 2022.
  3. ↑ La ALP sancionó la Ley de Reforma parcial de la CPE Archived 2015-12-26 at the Wayback Machine Vice President of Bolivia
  4. ↑ Bolivia passes law to allow Morales to run for fourth term Reuters, 25 September 2015
  5. 1 2 Consulta para habilitar a Evo está en marcha; El MAS ‘se juega la vida’ Archived 2019-10-18 at the Wayback Machine La Razón, 6 November 2015
  6. ↑ "Bolivian leader Morales' estranged son 'does not exist'". BBC News. 2016-05-17. Retrieved 2022-07-18.
  7. ↑ Gustafson, Bret Darin (2020). Bolivia in the age of gas. Durham: Duke University Press. pp. 224–225. ISBN 978-1-4780-1252-8. OCLC 1159629686.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  8. ↑ Gustafson, Bret Darin (2020). Bolivia in the age of gas. Durham: Duke University Press. p. 225. ISBN 978-1-4780-1252-8. OCLC 1159629686.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  9. ↑ Gustafson, Bret Darin (2020). Bolivia in the age of gas. Durham: Duke University Press. p. 225. ISBN 978-1-4780-1252-8. OCLC 1159629686.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  10. ↑ "Bolivian leader Morales' estranged son 'does not exist' - BBC News". 2022-07-18. Archived from the original on 2022-07-18. Retrieved 2022-07-18.
  11. ↑ "El Sí ganará el referendo según encuestas de Ipsos". El Deber. 26 October 2015. Archived from the original on 10 March 2016. Retrieved 8 December 2015.
  12. ↑ "54% rechaza la reforma de la CPE para otra reelección de Evo". Los Tiempos. 5 December 2015. Archived from the original on 10 December 2015. Retrieved 8 December 2015.
  13. ↑ "50% rechaza reforma que viabiliza la reelección, según encuesta". El Deber. 29 December 2015. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 1 December 2016.
  14. ↑ "Encuesta para EL DEBER da ventaja ajustada al 'Sí'". El Deber. 11 January 2016. Archived from the original on 4 April 2016. Retrieved 12 January 2016.
  15. ↑ "Encuesta Ipsos: El No a la reforma a la Constitución gana al Sí con 44% frente al 38%". La Razón. 15 January 2016. Archived from the original on 25 December 2016. Retrieved 16 January 2016.
  16. ↑ "Bolivia: Morales promete aceptar sin reclamos si gana el "No" en febrero". DW. 14 January 2016. Retrieved 16 January 2016.
  17. ↑ "Encuesta revela que 44,4% apoya el Sí a la repostulación del presidente Evo Morales en el eje central del país". ABI - Agencia Boliviana de Información. 11 February 2016. Archived from the original on 6 September 2016. Retrieved 12 February 2016.
  18. ↑ "Encuesta de Mori dice que el No creció y que empata al Sí". El Deber. 12 February 2016. Archived from the original on 16 February 2016. Retrieved 12 February 2016.
  19. ↑ "El No obtiene mínima ventaja sobre el Sí en el referéndum según encuesta de Ipsos". La Razón. 12 February 2016. Archived from the original on 14 February 2016. Retrieved 12 February 2016.
  20. ↑ "Intención de voto: El Sí cae a 28% y el No sube a 47%". Los Tiempos. 14 February 2016. Archived from the original on 15 February 2016. Retrieved 14 February 2016.
  21. ↑ Bolivian court clears way for Morales to run for fourth term Reuters, 28 November 2017
  22. ↑ Blair, Laurence (3 December 2017). "Evo for ever? Bolivia scraps term limits as critics blast 'coup' to keep Morales in power". The Guardian. Retrieved 1 January 2018.
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