Next Myanmar general election
TBD
315 of the 440 seats in the Pyithu Hluttaw
221 seats needed for a majority
161 of the 224 seats in the Amyotha Hluttaw
113 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Khin Yi Thar Tun Hla
Party USDP ANP
Leader since 5 October 2022
Last election 26 R / 7 N 4 R / 4 N
Incumbent President

Myint Swe (acting)
USDP


In Myanmar's next general election, voters are expected to elect representatives to both the Amyotha Hluttaw and the Pyithu Hluttaw of the Assembly of the Union. The planned election would be the first after the 2021 military coup d'état. Though the military junta, the State Administration Council, initially promised to hold the election by August 2023, it has since indefinitely delayed the election in the face of increasing violence.

Since the coup, the military has ruled the country under a state of emergency, initially declared by Acting President Myint Swe for one year and extended four times by six-month periods, currently set to expire on 1 February 2024.[1] The constitution requires elections be held within six months of the end of the state of emergency. The military is expected to seek legitimacy for its extended rule through the election, which is unlikely to be free and fair.

In January 2023, the military enacted a new electoral law switching from a first-past-the-post to a proportional system, to improve the electoral performance of the military proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party, which performed poorly in the free and fair 2020 election.[2] Added to the previously existing 25% reserved seats to the military, the switch would allow it to govern with barely one fourth of the popular vote.[3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]

The National League for Democracy, which was removed from power in the coup, announced in February 2023 that it would not register under the new law, and was declared dissolved by the election commission the following month.[12][13] The second-largest opposition party, the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, similarly announced it would not participate in the election.[14][15]

Background

Myanmar, previously known as Burma, has been under a dictatorship for the majority of its independent history. First, under Ne Win and his Burma Socialist Programme Party, and then under a military junta. In the early 2010s, Myanmar transitioned into a state of semi-democracy, finally culminating in the 2015 elections, where democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi became State Counsellor, and her party the National League for Democracy won a landslide victory.[16]

2020 election performance

On the eve of the November 2020 election, Min Aung Hlaing publicly questioned the legitimacy of the upcoming 2020 election.[17] After casting his ballot, he vowed to accept the election results.[18] In the 2020 general elections, the NLD won another landslide over the Tatmadaw (military)-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, which lost additional seats in both chambers of the national legislature. Domestic and international election observers deemed the election results credible, noting no major irregularities.[19][20]

Nonetheless, the military claimed the vote was fraudulent, citing 8.6 million irregularities in voter lists.[21] On 28 January 2021, the Union Election Commission rejected the military's fraud allegations, unable to corroborate the military's claims.[21]

2021 military coup

On 1 February 2021, the military launched a coup. Suu Kyi was detained, along with President Win Myint, and other key individuals. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing took power, organizing a junta called the State Administration Council (SAC). Myint Swe was declared interim President, and a state of emergency was declared for one year. In late February, the SAC unveiled a five-point roadmap, with the ultimate goal of holding "a free and fair multiparty democracy election."[22]

Aung San Suu Kyi received a number of frivolous charges, including breaching emergency COVID-19 laws, illegally importing and using walkie-talkies, violating the National Disaster Law,[23] violating communications laws, inciting public unrest, and violating the official secrets act.[24][25] On 6 December 2021, she was sentenced to four years in prison, but Hlaing commuted her sentence to two years. Her conviction complicates her ability to hold public office.[26]

On 1 August 2021, Hlaing formed a caretaker government, and declared himself Prime Minister, whilst remaining the Chairman of the SAC.[27]

The Tatmadaw originally promised to hold the elections when the state of emergency expired on 1 February 2022, but pushed back the elections to 2023.

Dissolution of the NLD

On 21 May 2021, the junta-appointed Union Election Commission announced plans to permanently dissolve the National League for Democracy.[28] NLD offices were occupied and raided by police authorities, starting on 2 February.[29] Documents, computers and laptops were forcibly seized, and the NLD called these raids unlawful.[29] On 9 February, police raided the NLD headquarters in Yangon.[30] Aung San Suu Kyi has commented on the possibility of her party's forced dissolution saying, "Our party grew out of the people so it will exist as long as people support it."[31]

In January 2022, the junta reversed its plan to dissolve the NLD, with spokesman Zaw Min Tun saying that the NLD will decide whether to stand in the 2023 election.[32] In February 2023, the NLD announced it would not re-register as a political party under a strict new electoral law enacted by the junta the previous month.[12] The electoral commission automatically disbanded NLD, along with 39 other parties, on 28 March 2023.[33]

Electoral system

A ballot paper in 2020

Previously, Myanmar has exclusively used the first-past-the-post system, in which a candidate needs only a plurality of votes in a constituency to be elected. On 16 June 2022, Khin Maung Oo, a member of the Union Election Commission, said at a press conference in Naypyidaw that the country will use a proportional representation system instead for the next election.[34]

Existing system

In the existing system, the national legislature, the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw consists of a total of 498 seats elected in single-member constituencies, and 166 seats reserved for military appointees.

The Pyithu Hluttaw, or House of Representatives, is elected every five years. It is the lower house. It has 440 MPs, 330 of which are elected in single-member constituencies, one for each township. A further 110 members (one quarter) are appointed by the Tatmadaw.

The Amyotha Hluttaw, or House of Nationalities, is elected every five years. It is the upper house. It has 224 MPs, 168 of which are elected in single-member constituencies, 12 in each state or region. A further 56 members (one quarter) are appointed by the Tatmadaw.

In Myanmar, it is not uncommon for elections to be cancelled partially or completely in some constituencies due to insurrection.

After the new legislators take office, the President and the two Vice Presidents of Myanmar are elected by the Presidential Electoral College, made up of MPs from three committees: one of elected members from each house of the Assembly of the Union, and one from the military-appointed members. Each committee recommends one candidate, and the Assembly then holds a vote. The position the candidates are elected to depends on their overall vote total (the highest vote-getter becomes President, while the second-highest becomes First Vice President, and the remaining candidate becomes Second Vice President).

People married to a non-Burmese citizen and/or who have children without Burmese citizenship are barred from being elected to any presidential position. This requirement has been criticized by some as being an attempt to disqualify Suu Kyi. Her late husband was a British citizen, so she was ineligible to be President. Instead, she became State Counsellor, and President Win Myint was seen as her puppet.

Revisions to the existing system

In December 2021, the junta-appointed Union Electoral Commission convened with 60 political parties on the electoral system. The cohort determined that it would be advisable to switch to a system of party-list proportional representation (PR). The largest remainder method will be used, and the lists will be closed, although there may be a switch to open lists "when the level of education of the electorate and the political tide rises". The townships will be merged into districts for constituencies.[35][36]

Observers and anti-junta factions have criticized the change in electoral system for politically motivated, aimed at increasing the junta's electoral performance.[37][38][39] In 2014, the Amyotha Hluttaw had previously approved a switch to the PR system, but it was not pursued further by the Pyithu Hluttaw for being "unconstitutional."[39] The PR system also implies larger multi-member constituencies, which could enable the military to avoid having to cancel elections in insecure regions.[2]

On 26 January 2023, the military junta issued the Political Parties Registration Law to force political parties to re-register within 60 days, or face automation dissolution.[2] The law also introduced new financial (possessing at least US$35,000 in funds), party membership (having 100,000 members, an increase from 1,000), and logistical requirements (contesting half of all constituencies and operating party offices in half of all townships), effectively aimed at limiting electoral participation to few national parties like the USDP.[2] The NLD and SNLD, and 38 other parties were both disbanded by the law on 28 March.

Conduct

The Union Election Commission (UEC) organises and oversees in Myanmar. During the 2021 coup, Hla Thein, the civilian-appointed UEC chair was arrested by military authorities, and subsequently sentenced to prison.[40] The military junta replaced him with Thein Soe, a former military general who had previously overseen the 2010 Myanmar general election.[41] Some have expressed concerns about the Tatmadaw's willingness to hold free and fair elections.

Although the past three elections in Myanmar have been semi-free,[42] there have been concerns over such things as irregularities in voter lists, misinformation, fake news, and the vilification of Burmese Muslims. In addition, under the military-designed 2008 Constitution, the military is effectively guaranteed one vice presidency, and a quarter of the seats in both chambers of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, veto power over voter-elected legislators, as well as a third of the seats in all state and regional Hluttaws, and key ministries.[43]

Some members of the NLD dominated Pyidaungsu Hluttaw elected in 2020 have formed an anti-cabinet known as the National Unity Government of Myanmar. The NUG claims to be the legitimate government of Myanmar, and the junta and the NUG consider each other terrorist groups.[44] The coup has since escalated into a Myanmar civil war (2021–present) between the Armed Forces, and the NUG's People's Defence Force and ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), resulting in thousands of military and civilian casualties, and the displacement of an additional 1.7 million people as of November 2022.[45][46][47][48] This, along with ongoing ethnic conflicts, means the vote will likely be cancelled in some constituencies, and may not be secure in others.

The planned election may trigger an escalation in violence, due to widespread public opposition.[2] Since January 2023, resistance forces have attacked and killed individuals associated with the planned election, including local administrators gathering data for voter lists.[2] On 29 January, the NUG declared that individuals cooperating with the election would be deemed "accomplices of high treason."[2] Major EAOs, including the Chin National Front, Karenni National Progressive Party, Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Organisation, and the Ta-ang National Liberation Army, have also criticised the planned election.[2]

Timing

As of March 2023, the election date has not been officially announced. The Constitution requires that elections be held within six months of the end of a declared state of emergency, which the military has extended four times since the 2021 coup.[2]

In addition to ongoing security concerns, the election date may have also been delayed to forestall infighting within the Burmese military leadership around succession planning.[2] It remains unclear if Min Aung Hlaing will remain commander-in-chief or seek the presidency, and whether he can appoint a loyal candidate to either role, since the Constitution does not permit him to assume both.[2]

Reactions

In March 2023, the governments of the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, Japan, France, Germany, and Australia strongly condemned the military junta's dissolution of the NLD and other political parties, expressing serious concerns on whether the planned elections can be free and fair.[49] The German government posited that the junta's moves threaten to escalate violence in the country, and further destabilise the country.[49] Japan's ministry of foreign affairs called for the release of all NLD officials, and noted the NLD's exclusion will hamper attempts to peacefully improve the country's political situation.[49][50] Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade characterised the junta's moves as a "further narrowing of political space in Myanmar." The European Union reiterated its support for ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus.[51]

Political parties

The table below lists parties that managed to elect representatives to the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw in 2020 that have registered to contest the next election.[52][12] Most parties in Myanmar represent one of the country's many ethnic minorities.

Name Ideology Leader 2020 result (of elected seats)
Pyithu Amyotha
USDP Union Solidarity and Development Party
ပြည်ထောင်စုကြံ့ခိုင်ရေးနှင့် ဖွံ့ဖြိုးရေးပါတီ		 Pro-Tatmadaw
Burmese nationalism[53]
Social conservatism[54]		 Khin Yi
26 / 330
7 / 168
ANP Arakan National Party
ရခိုင်အမျိုးသားပါတီ		 Rakhine nationalism Thar Tun Hla
4 / 330
4 / 168
PNO Pa-O National Organisation
ပအိုဝ်း အမျိုးသား အဖွဲ့ချုပ်		 Pa'O interests Aung Kham Hti
3 / 330
1 / 168
MUP Mon Unity Party
မွန်ညီညွတ်ရေးပါတီ		 Mon interests Han Shwe
2 / 330
3 / 168
KSPP Kachin State People's Party
ကချင်ပြည်နယ်ပြည်သူ့ပါတီ		 Kachin regionalism n/a
1 / 330
0 / 168
AFP Arakan Front Party
ရခိုင့်ဦးဆောင်ပါတီ		 Arakanese self-determination Aye Maung
1 / 330
0 / 168
WNP Wa National Party
‘ဝ’အမျိုးသားပါတီ		 Wa interests Nyi Palot
1 / 330
0 / 168
ZCD Zomi Congress for Democracy
ဇိုမီး ဒီမိုကရေစီအဖွဲ့ချုပ်		 Zomi interests
Liberal democracy		 Chin Sian Thang
1 / 330
0 / 168
NDP New Democracy Party
ဒီမိုကရေစီပါတီသစ်		 Liberal democracy
Kachin regionalism		 San Khaung
0 / 330
1 / 168
2020 total results 39 / 330
(11.9% of seats)		 16 / 168
(9.5% of seats)

The table below lists political parties that were dissolved by the junta, including the NLD and SNLD, that won 88% of the national parliamentary seats in the 2020 election.[55]

Name Ideology Leader 2020 result (of elected seats)
Pyithu Amyotha
NLD National League for Democracy
အမျိုးသား ဒီမိုကရေစီ အဖွဲ့ချုပ်		 Liberalism Aung San Suu Kyi
258 / 330
138 / 168
SNLD Shan Nationalities League for Democracy
ရှမ်းတိုင်းရင်းသားများ ဒီမိုကရေစီ အဖွဲ့ချုပ်		 Shan interests Hkun Htun Oo
13 / 330
2 / 168
TNP Ta'ang National Party
တအာင်းအမျိုးသားပါတီ		 Ta'ang interests Aik Mone
3 / 330
2 / 168
KySDP Kayah State Democratic Party
ကယားပြည်နယ်ဒီမိုကရေစီပါတီ		 Karenni interests Po Re
2 / 330
3 / 168
2020 total results 276 / 330
(83.6% of seats)		 145 / 168
(86.3% of seats)

References

  1. ↑ Strangio, Sebastian (1 August 2023). "Myanmar Junta Extends State of Emergency for Fourth Time". The Diplomat. Retrieved 5 August 2023.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "A Road to Nowhere: The Myanmar Regime's Stage-managed Elections". Crisis Group. 2023-03-28. Retrieved 2023-03-29.
  3. ↑ "Myanmar junta promises elections by 2023". Deutsche Welle. 1 August 2021. Archived from the original on 18 September 2021. Retrieved 18 September 2021.
  4. ↑ "Min Aung Hlaing says no Myanmar elections until 2023". Al Jazeera. 1 Aug 2021. Archived from the original on 30 December 2021. Retrieved 30 December 2021.
  5. ↑ "Myanmar military prepares for election in bid for legitimacy". Nikkei Asia. 23 July 2022. Archived from the original on 3 August 2022. Retrieved 1 August 2022.
  6. ↑ Khine Lin Kyaw (31 July 2022). "Myanmar Extends State of Emergency For Six Months Until February". Bloomberg. Retrieved 1 August 2022.
  7. ↑ Strangio, Sebastian (5 January 2023). "Myanmar's Military Junta Takes Step Toward Controversial Election". The Diplomat. Archived from the original on 28 January 2023. Retrieved 28 January 2023.
  8. ↑ "Myanmar military announces strict new election law ahead of polls". Al Jazeera. 27 January 2023. Archived from the original on 28 January 2023. Retrieved 28 January 2023.
  9. ↑ "Myanmar army set to cement rule with tough new election criteria". Reuters. 27 January 2022. Archived from the original on 28 January 2023. Retrieved 28 January 2023.
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  11. ↑ "Myanmar junta extends state of emergency, effectively delaying polls". Agence France-Presse. Yangon: France24. 1 February 2023. Retrieved 1 February 2023.
  12. 1 2 3 "Myanmar's opposition party refuses to re-register under new junta law". Radio Free Asia. 6 February 2023. Retrieved 13 February 2023.
  13. ↑ Min Ye Kyaw; Rebecca Ratcliffe (28 March 2023). "Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party dissolved". The Guardian. Bangkok, Thailand. Retrieved 30 April 2023.
  14. ↑ "Shan prominent party decides not to register for junta's election". Burma News International. Retrieved 2023-03-20.
  15. ↑ "'We Agree the Law is Unfair': SNLD". The Irrawaddy. 1 February 2023. Retrieved 13 February 2023.
  16. ↑ "Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy Wins Majority in Myanmar". BBC News. 13 November 2015. Archived from the original on 13 November 2015. Retrieved 13 November 2015.
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  20. ↑ "Election 2020 | No Major Irregularities in Myanmar Election: Carter Center". The Irrawaddy. 11 November 2020. Retrieved 6 February 2021.
  21. 1 2 "Myanmar election commission rejects military's fraud claims". AP NEWS. 2021-05-03. Retrieved 2023-03-29.
  22. ↑ "Five future programmes of State Administration Council" (PDF). Global New Light of Myanmar. 2021-02-24.
  23. ↑ "Myanmar coup: Aung San Suu Kyi faces new charge amid protests". BBC News. 16 February 2021. Archived from the original on 15 February 2021. Retrieved 17 February 2020.
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  27. ↑ "နိုင်ငံတော်စီမံအုပ်ချုပ်ရေးကောင်စီ စီမံခန့်ခွဲရေး ကော်မတီကို အိမ်စောင့်အစိုးရအဖွဲ့ အဖြစ် ပြင်ဆင်ဖွဲ့စည်း". Eleven Media Group (in Burmese). 1 August 2021. Archived from the original on 1 August 2021. Retrieved 15 August 2021.
  28. ↑ "Myanmar's junta-appointed electoral body to dissolve Suu Kyi's party, report says". CNN. Reuters. 21 May 2021. Archived from the original on 2021-05-21. Retrieved 2021-05-21.
  29. 1 2 "Myanmar's NLD says offices raided in 'unlawful acts', computers, documents seized". money.yahoo.com. Archived from the original on 2021-02-12. Retrieved 2021-02-09.
  30. ↑ "Myanmar police raid headquarters of Suu Kyi's NLD party - lawmakers". Reuters. 2021-02-09. Archived from the original on 2021-02-09. Retrieved 2021-02-09.
  31. ↑ "Myanmar's Suu Kyi appears in court in person for first time since coup". Reuters. 24 May 2021. Archived from the original on 24 May 2021. Retrieved 24 May 2021.
  32. ↑ "Myanmar military won't dissolve Suu Kyi's NLD party: official". Nikkei Asia. Yangon and Bangkok, Thailand. 26 January 2022. Archived from the original on 3 August 2022. Retrieved 1 August 2022.
  33. ↑ "Myanmar junta dissolves Suu Kyi's party as election deadline passes". Reuters. 2023-03-28. Retrieved 2023-03-29.
  34. ↑ "Myanmar junta says election will be held under PR system, no referendum". Archived from the original on 2022-07-03. Retrieved 2022-07-03.
  35. ↑ "ပြည်ထောင်စုရွေးကောက်ပွဲကော်မရှင်နှင့်နိုင်ငံရေးပါတီများ ရွေးကောက်ပွဲစနစ်ဆိုင်ရာဆွေးနွေးပွဲ တတိယနေ့ ကျင်းပပြုလုပ်ခြင်း". Union Election Commission (in Burmese). Union Electoral Commission of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar. Archived from the original on 30 December 2021. Retrieved 30 December 2021.
  36. ↑ "Junta steps up efforts to promote switch to Proportional Representation in elections". Myanmar Now. Oct 14, 2021. Archived from the original on 29 December 2021. Retrieved 30 December 2021.
  37. ↑ Htet, Hein (4 March 2021). "Myanmar's NLD Rejects Military's Call for Proportional Representation Election System". The Irrawaddy. Archived from the original on 30 December 2021. Retrieved 30 December 2021.
  38. ↑ "Myanmar's junta-appointed election commission pushes change to voting laws". Radio Free Asia. 2021-10-25. Archived from the original on 2021-12-30. Retrieved 30 December 2021.
  39. 1 2 "Myanmar's junta switch to PR system beneficial only to them". Asian Network for Free Elections. 2022-03-11. Retrieved 2023-03-29.
  40. ↑ "Myanmar: Arrests Mount as Protests Expand". Human Rights Watch. 2021-02-13. Retrieved 2023-03-29.
  41. ↑ "Election 2020 | Myanmar's Coup Leaders Name a New Union Election Commission". The Irrawaddy. 2021-02-03. Retrieved 2023-03-29.
  42. ↑ "Election 2020 | No Major Irregularities in Myanmar Election: Carter Center". The Irrawaddy. 11 November 2020. Archived from the original on 6 February 2021. Retrieved 6 February 2021.
  43. ↑ "New Myanmar constitution gives military leading role". Reuters. 2008-02-19. Retrieved 2023-03-29.
  44. ↑ "Myanmar junta designates shadow government as 'terrorist' group". Deutsche Welle. 8 May 2021. Archived from the original on 6 October 2021. Retrieved 9 May 2021.
  45. ↑ "Nearly 1.7 million new refugees of conflict in Myanmar since coup". Radio Free Asia. 2022-11-16. Retrieved 2023-03-29.
  46. ↑ "NUG establishes 'chain of command' in fight against regime". Myanmar NOW. 28 October 2021. Archived from the original on 15 July 2022. Retrieved 5 November 2021.
  47. ↑ "Myanmar's shadow government parades new armed force". CNA. 28 May 2021. Archived from the original on 29 May 2021. Retrieved 29 May 2021.
  48. ↑ "PDF's strength expected to reach 8,000". Radio Free Asia (in Burmese). 13 July 2021. Archived from the original on 21 October 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  49. 1 2 3 "International Community Condemns Myanmar Junta for NLD Dissolution". The Irrawaddy. 2023-03-30. Retrieved 2023-03-31.
  50. ↑ "US, allies concerned over Myanmar disbanding Suu Kyi party". Reuters. 2023-03-29. Retrieved 2023-03-31.
  51. ↑ "Myanmar: Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union on the dissolution of democratic political parties". Council of the EU. 2023-03-29. Retrieved 2023-03-31.
  52. ↑ "တည်ဆဲ နိုင်ငံရေးပါတီများစာရင်း". Union Electoral Commission. Union Electoral Commission of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar. Archived from the original on 30 December 2021. Retrieved 30 December 2021.
  53. ↑ Htet Naing Zaw (21 March 2018). "'You Can Label Us As Nationalist,' USDP Chairman Says". The Irrawaddy. Archived from the original on 20 March 2022. Retrieved 30 December 2021.
  54. ↑ "Coup In Ranks Of Myanmar's Ruling Party Highlights Concern Over Suu Kyi". August 13, 2015. Archived from the original on April 8, 2022. Retrieved December 30, 2021.
  55. ↑ "UEC announces dissolution of 40 political parties including NLD and SNLD". Eleven Media Group Co., Ltd. Retrieved 2023-03-31.
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