2022 Lower Saxony state election

9 October 2022
All 146 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony, including 11 overhang and leveling seats 74 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	3,657,881 (60.3%) 2.8 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Stephan Weil Bernd Althusmann Julia Hamburg & Christian Meyer Party SPD CDU Greens Last election 55 seats, 36.9% 50 seats, 33.6% 12 seats, 8.7% Seats won 57 47 24 Seat change 2 3 12 Popular vote 1,211,418 1,017,276 526,923 Percentage 33.4% 28.1% 14.5% Swing 3.5% 5.5% 5.8%   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Stefan Marzischewski-Drewes Stefan Birkner Party AfD FDP Last election 9 seats, 6.2% 11 seats, 7.5% Seats won 18 0 Seat change 9 11 Popular vote 396,839 170,298 Percentage 11.0% 4.7% Swing 4.8% 2.8%
Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats.
Government before election Second Weil cabinet SPD–CDU Government after election Third Weil cabinet SPD–Green

The 2022 Lower Saxony state election was held on 9 October 2022 to elect the 19th Landtag of Lower Saxony.^[1] The incumbent government was a coalition of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) led by Minister-President Stephan Weil.

The SPD remained the largest party with 33% and gained two seats, despite a decline of 3.5 percentage points. The CDU suffered a larger loss and won 28%. Alliance 90/The Greens recorded their best result to date in the state, taking 14.5% on a swing of six points. Alternative for Germany (AfD) made gains for the first time in any election since October 2019, improving to 11%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell just short of the 5% electoral threshold and lost representation.

Amidst an ongoing energy crisis and looming recession, commentators described the result as a victory for the incumbent federal SPD government of Olaf Scholz, who had suffered a decline in popularity and recent losses in other state elections.^[2]

Minister-President Weil ruled out continuing government with the CDU and formed a new coalition with the Greens. He was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 8 November, and his cabinet was sworn in the same day.^[3]

Background

Following the 2017 Lower Saxony state election, the incumbent red-green coalition government of minister-president Stephan Weil was 2 seats short of a majority in the Landtag. Due to FDP leader Stefan Birkner ruling out any coalition with SPD or Greens, and the Greens ruling out any coalition with CDU and FDP, the only option for a majority government was a grand coalition of SPD and CDU, considering no party wanted to form a coalition with the AfD.^[4]

On 22 November 2017, Weil was reelected as minister-president receiving 104 out of 137 votes as the head of a grand coalition.^[5]

Electoral system

The Landtag of Lower Saxony is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Its minimum size is 135 seats. Of these, 87 are elected in single-member constituencies, and the remainder are determined by party lists. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates within each individual constituency, and the "second vote" for party lists. There is an electoral threshold of 5% of second vote to qualify for seats. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method, with additional overhang and leveling seats provided to ensure proportionality. The normal term of the Landtag is 5 years.^[6]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 18th Landtag of Lower Saxony.^[7]

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted

Minister-President polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size			Neither/ Unsure	Lead
			Weil SPD	Althusmann CDU
Wahlkreisprognose	6–7 Oct 2022	900	56	26	18	30
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	5–6 Oct 2022	1,046	55	24	21	31
Wahlkreisprognose	29 Sep–1 Oct 2022	957	55	27	18	28
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	26–29 Sep 2022	1,023	51	24	25	27
Infratest dimap	26–28 Sep 2022	1,529	50	28	22	22
Wahlkreisprognose	23–24 Sep 2022	1,000	56	28	16	28
Infratest dimap	15–20 Sep 2022	1,156	49	27	24	22
Wahlkreisprognose	16–17 Sep 2022	992	58	27	15	31
Wahlkreisprognose	8–9 Sep 2022	970	59	30	11	29
Wahlkreisprognose	1–2 Sep 2022	1,001	59	29	12	30
Wahlkreisprognose	27–31 Aug 2022	1,410	57	33	10	24
Infratest dimap	24–29 Aug 2022	1,169	50	27	23	23
Wahlkreisprognose	15–20 Aug 2022	1,100	54	31	15	23
Wahlkreisprognose	1–5 Aug 2022	1,421	53	30	17	23
Wahlkreisprognose	11–17 Jul 2022	1,036	57	26	17	31
Infratest dimap	29 Jun–4 Jul 2022	1,154	52	22	26	30
Wahlkreisprognose	4–11 Jun 2022	1,100	60	20	20	40
Wahlkreisprognose	19–24 May 2022	1,000	56	24	20	32
Wahlkreisprognose	25 Apr–1 May 2022	1,010	63	20	17	43
Infratest dimap	11–16 Nov 2021	1,160	59	21	20	38
Infratest dimap	6–12 Oct 2020	1,004	57	23	18	34
Infratest dimap	15–20 Nov 2018	1,006	53	26	21	27

Results

Party		Constituency			List			Total seats	+/–
		Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	Swing
	Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)	1,235,921	34.2	57	1,211,418	33.4	3.5	57	2
	Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)	1,147,969	31.8	27	1,017,276	28.1	5.5	47	3
	Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)	522,198	14.5	3	526,923	14.5	5.8	24	12
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	321,135	8.9	0	396,839	11.0	4.8	18	9
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	160,791	4.5	0	170,298	4.7	2.8	0	11
	The Left (DIE LINKE)	107,326	3.0	0	98,585	2.7	1.9	0	±0
	Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutzpartei)	3,497	0.1	0	53,139	1.5	0.8	0	±0
	Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (dieBasis)	45,287	1.3	0	36,603	1.0	New	0	New
	Die PARTEI	13,316	0.4	0	34,159	0.9	0.3	0	±0
	Free Voters (FW)	29,289	0.8	0	30,453	0.8	0.4	0	±0
	Volt Germany (Volt)	7,377	0.2	0	16,663	0.5	New	0	New
	Pirate Party Germany (Piraten)	3,294	0.1	0	14,242	0.4	0.2	0	±0
	Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung)	–	–	–	10,673	0.3	New	0	New
	The Humanists (Die Humanisten)	603	0.0	0	6,528	0.2	New	0	New
	Centre Party (ZENTRUM)	1,908	0.1	0	–	–	New	0	New
	Solidarity, Justice and Change (SGV)	837	0.0	0	–	–	New	0	New
	The Frisians	587	0.0	0	–	–	–	0	New
	Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)	526	0.0	0	–	–	0.1	0	±0
	Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C)	233	0.0	0	–	–	–	0	±0
	The Others	190	0.0	0	–	–	New	0	New
	Independents	6,329	0.2	0	–	–	–	0	±0
Valid		3,609,304	98.7		3,623,799	99.1
Invalid		48,577	1.3		34,082	0.9
Total		3,657,881	100.0	87	3,657,881	100.0		146	+9
Registered voters/turnout		6,064,738	60.3		6,064,738	60.3	2.8
Source: State Returning Officer

Government formation

Having ruled out cooperation with the AfD, the SPD was able to form a majority government with either the CDU or Greens. The CDU had hoped to pursue a three-party coalition with the Greens and FDP, but after it became clear that the latter had fallen out of the Landtag, this was no longer possible. Minister-President Weil indicated a strong preference for a coalition with the Greens, which they reciprocated.^[8] Four days after the election on 13 October, the SPD and Greens agreed to preliminary discussions, with the goal of finalising government negotiations by 3 November.^[9] Formal coalition talks began on schedule on 26 October. Both parties avoided leaking information about the proceedings, and insisted that distribution of ministries would be dealt with after matters of policy had been settled. Nonetheless, both favoured greater investment in housing, education, and renewable energy. On the other hand, areas such as transport, climate targets, natural gas production, and police were flagged as potential difficulties.^[10]

The SPD and Greens announced just a few days later, on 31 October, that negotiations had concluded successfully.^[11] The coalition pact was approved by both parties^[12] and signed on 7 November. It included plans for a six billion euro relief package to fight the ongoing energy crisis. The new government also agreed to raise starting salaries for teachers, establish a state housing company geared toward construction of affordable housing, and introduce a statewide 29-euro transit ticket for students, trainees, and volunteers.^[13]

Stephan Weil was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 8 November, winning 82 votes out of 145 cast. Given that the governing coalition held 81 seats, this indicated support from at least one opposition deputy.^[3] The third Weil cabinet was sworn in the same day, comprising six SPD ministers and four Greens.^[14]

References