2018 Oregon gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Kate Brown Knute Buehler
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families
Popular vote 934,498 814,988
Percentage 50.1% 43.7%
County results
Brown:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Buehler:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Kate Brown
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Kate Brown
Democratic

The 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018 to elect the Governor of Oregon to serve a full four-year term. In the 2016 special election, Democratic Governor Kate Brown had been elected to serve the last two years of John Kitzhaber's term.[1]

The Republican Party nominated Knute Buehler, her opponent in the 2012 Oregon Secretary of State election; the Independent Party of Oregon nominated Patrick Starnes. Brown, running for a full term, won the election; because of term limits, she became ineligible to seek the governorship again.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Kate Brown
U.S. Senators
Organizations

Results

Results by county:
  Brown
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kate Brown (incumbent) 324,541 81.9
Democratic Ed Jones 33,464 8.4
Democratic Candace Neville 29,110 7.4
Democratic Write-ins 8,912 2.3
Total votes 396,027 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014 and 2016 (endorsed Greg Wooldridge)[3][17]

Declined

Endorsements

Knute Buehler
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Individuals
  • Rob Harris, co-chair of the Independent Party of Oregon[32]
  • Antoinette Hatfield, former First Lady of Oregon[33]
  • Phil Knight, businessman, co-founder of Nike[34][9]
Organizations
Newspapers
Greg Wooldridge
State legislators
Organizations

Debates

Host
network		 Date Link(s) Participants
Knute
Buehler		 Sam
Carpenter		 Greg
Wooldridge
KXL-FM May 11, 2018 [51] Invited Invited Invited

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Knute
Buehler		 Sam
Carpenter		 Lori
Chavez-DeRemer		 Greg
Wooldridge		 Other Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D) May 3–6, 2018 438 ± 4.7% 33% 25% – 8% – 33%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) April 19–22, 2018 1,013 ± 3.1% 39% 24% – 12% 6%[lower-alpha 1] 20%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) March 19–25, 2018 628 – 23% 23% – 4% – 50%
iCitizen September 13–28, 2017 168 ± 3.9% 28% – 8% 31% 6% 26%

Results

Results by county:
  Buehler
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Carpenter
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Knute Buehler 144,103 45.9
Republican Sam Carpenter 90,572 28.8
Republican Greg C. Wooldridge 63,049 20.1
Republican Bruce Cuff 4,857 1.5
Republican Jeff Smith 4,691 1.5
Republican David Stauffer 2,096 0.7
Republican Write-ins 1,701 0.5
Republican Jonathan Edwards III 861 0.3
Republican Keenan Bohach 787 0.3
Republican Brett Hyland 755 0.2
Republican Jack W. Tacy 512 0.2
Total votes 313,984 100

Independent Party primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Skye Allen[3]
  • Dan Pistoresi[3]
  • Patrick Starnes[3]

Results

Independent primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Write-ins 13,497 56.8
Independent Patrick Starnes 6,030 25.4
Independent Skye J. Allen 2,405 10.6
Independent Dan Pistoresi 1,846 7.8
Total votes 23,778 100.0

General election

Knute Buehler Campaign Logo

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Tossup October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[53] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[54] Likely D November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[55] Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[56] Lean D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[57] Tossup November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[58] Lean D November 5, 2018
Fox News[59][lower-alpha 2] Lean D November 5, 2018
Politico[60] Lean D November 5, 2018
Governing[61] Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ Bruce Cuff and Jeff Smith with 3%
  2. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Kate
Brown (D)		 Knute
Buehler (R)		 Other/Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
Real Clear Politics October 4–30, 2018 October 30, 2018 44.0% 39.7% 16.3% Brown +4.3%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kate
Brown (D)		 Knute
Buehler (R)		 Patrick
Starnes (IPO)		 Other Undecided
Hoffman Research Group October 29–30, 2018 694 ± 3.7% 45% 42% 4% 2%[62] 7%
Emerson College October 26–28, 2018 747 ± 3.7% 47% 42% – 7% 4%
DHM Research October 4–11, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 40% 35% 4% 3%[63] 17%
Riley Research Associates September 24 – October 7, 2018 356 ± 5.0% 49% 45% 4% 3%[64] –
Clout Research (R) September 20–23, 2018 679 ± 3.8% 42% 41% – – –
Hoffman Research Group September 12–13, 2018 680 ± 3.8% 46% 36% 4% 2%[62] 12%
Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC) September 6–11, 2018 2,831 ± 2.0% 41% 43% – – –
Clout Research (R) July 30–31, 2018 559 ± 4.1% 42% 43% – – 15%
Gravis Marketing July 16–17, 2018 770 ± 3.5% 45% 45% – – 10%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) March 19–25, 2018 2,067 ± 2.2% 41% 46% – – 14%
DHM Research January 25–31, 2018 604 ± 4.0% 46% 29% – – 25%
Zogby Analytics November 10–12, 2017 508 ± 4.4% 39% 36% – – 25%
iCitizen September 13–28, 2017 645 ± 3.9% 41% 40% – 11% 8%
Hypothetical polling
with Sam Carpenter
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kate
Brown (D)		 Sam
Carpenter (R)		 Other Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) March 19–25, 2018 2,067 ± 2.2% 41% 46% – 13%
Zogby Analytics November 10–12, 2017 508 ± 4.4% 38% 36% – 26%
with Greg Wooldridge
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kate
Brown (D)		 Greg
Wooldridge (R)		 Other Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) March 19–25, 2018 2,067 ± 2.2% 42% 47% – 11%
iCitizen September 13–28, 2017 645 ± 3.9% 42% 39% 11% 7%
with Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kate
Brown (D)		 Lori
Chavez-DeRemer (R)		 Other Undecided
iCitizen September 13–28, 2017 645 ± 3.9% 40% 34% 17% 8%

Results

Statewide results

Oregon gubernatorial election, 2018[65]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Kate Brown (incumbent) 934,498 50.05% -0.57%
Republican Knute Buehler 814,988 43.65% +0.20%
Independent Patrick Starnes 53,392 2.86% +0.42%
Libertarian Nick Chen 28,927 1.55% -0.77%
Constitution Aaron Auer 21,145 1.13% +0.13%
Progressive Chris Henry 11,013 0.59% N/A
Write-in 3,034 0.16% -0.01%
Total votes 1,866,997 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Results by congressional district

Brown carried two out of the state's five congressional districts, losing two swing districts that simultaneously voted for Democrats in the US House, with Oregon's 4th congressional district held by veteran congressman Peter DeFazio and Oregon's 5th congressional district held by former veterinarian Kurt Schrader.

District Kate
Brown		 Knute
Buehler		 Elected
Representative
1st 53.77% 40.51% Suzanne Bonamici
2nd 35.38% 57.19% Greg Walden
3rd 69.17% 26.45% Earl Blumenauer
4th 44.84% 47.15% Peter DeFazio
5th 46.02% 47.97% Kurt Schrader

County results

County Kate Brown

Democrat

 Votes Knute Buehler

Republican

 Votes Patrick Starnes

Independent

 Votes Nick Chen

Libertarian

 Votes Aaron Auer

Constitution

 Votes Chris Henry

Progressive

 Votes Write-in Votes Total
Baker 19.0% 1,572 72.9% 6,023 4.2% 347 1.6% 132 1.5% 126 0.6% 49 0.2% 15 8,264
Benton 60.1% 26,592 33.9% 14,990 2.8% 1,225 1.6% 721 0.8% 357 0.7% 293 0.1% 53 44,231
Clackamas 45.5% 91,088 49.2% 98,468 2.4% 4,726 1.4% 2,827 0.9% 1,853 0.5% 941 0.2% 363 200,266
Clatsop 48.0% 8,909 44.7% 8,294 3.3% 616 1.6% 305 1.4% 259 0.8% 140 0.2% 35 18,558
Columbia 38.7% 9,519 52.6% 12,953 4.0% 975 1.9% 480 2.0% 481 0.7% 167 0.2% 42 24,617
Coos 33.5% 9,622 57.5% 16,520 4.4% 1,262 1.8% 505 1.8% 510 0.9% 256 0.2% 52 28,727
Crook 19.8% 2,285 73.8% 8,516 3.6% 418 1.0% 110 1.2% 140 0.4% 42 0.2% 25 11,536
Curry 35.9% 4,141 56.1% 6,474 3.8% 443 1.6% 188 1.7% 199 0.7% 75 0.1% 13 11,533
Deschutes 42.3% 40,676 52.0% 49,983 2.9% 2,764 1.4% 1,353 0.8% 766 0.5% 460 0.1% 97 96,099
Douglas 24.0% 11,824 65.8% 32,413 5.0% 2,481 1.5% 738 2.7% 1,326 0.7% 368 0.2% 88 49,238
Gilliam 22.0% 218 69.6% 691 4.6% 46 1.9% 19 1.4% 14 0.5% 5 0.0% 0 993
Grant 16.8% 649 75.9% 2,923 3.9% 151 1.2% 48 1.5% 56 0.5% 19 0.2% 7 3,853
Harney 16.5% 584 76.7% 2,722 3.6% 126 0.8% 29 1.8% 63 0.6% 20 0.1% 3 3,547
Hood River 59.9% 6,485 35.0% 3,789 2.5% 271 1.3% 136 0.7% 81 0.5% 55 0.1% 11 10,828
Jackson 41.4% 42,207 50.7% 51,623 4.1% 4,196 1.7% 1,720 1.3% 1,313 0.7% 716 0.1% 132 101,907
Jefferson 29.8% 2,635 62.3% 5,518 4.4% 388 1.3% 111 1.6% 145 0.5% 45 0.1% 10 8,852
Josephine 30.2% 12,214 60.5% 24,499 4.3% 1,735 1.9% 767 2.2% 881 0.8% 308 0.2% 66 40,470
Klamath 22.3% 6,301 67.7% 19,134 4.9% 1,371 2.3% 643 2.0% 564 0.7% 198 0.2% 45 28,256
Lake 13.4% 476 78.0% 2,774 4.4% 155 1.5% 52 2.3% 81 0.4% 14 0.1% 5 3,557
Lane 54.7% 96,841 38.2% 67,737 3.2% 5,683 1.8% 3,106 1.2% 2,173 0.8% 1,335 0.2% 297 177,172
Lincoln 52.1% 12,610 40.8% 9,884 3.4% 825 1.6% 391 1.2% 302 0.7% 164 0.2% 43 24,219
Linn 30.1% 16,461 60.5% 33,051 4.2% 2,293 1.9% 1,061 2.2% 1,204 0.8% 421 0.3% 171 54,662
Malheur 24.1% 2,159 66.9% 6,000 4.1% 364 1.7% 156 2.5% 227 0.6% 52 0.1% 12 8,970
Marion 43.5% 55,238 49.9% 63,323 2.8% 3,511 1.7% 2,100 1.4% 1,831 0.5% 650 0.3% 325 126,978
Morrow 22.5% 844 67.5% 2,534 4.3% 163 1.8% 68 3.0% 111 0.8% 29 0.1% 5 3,754
Multnomah 73.9% 279,384 22.1% 83,507 1.7% 6,309 1.2% 4,447 0.5% 1,793 0.6% 2,174 0.1% 484 378,098
Polk 41.6% 15,529 51.8% 19,341 2.9% 1,076 1.6% 589 1.3% 491 0.6% 206 0.2% 83 37,315
Sherman 19.3% 190 74.7% 736 3.5% 34 0.7% 7 1.5% 15 0.2% 2 0.1% 1 985
Tillamook 42.7% 5,616 50.3% 6,606 3.5% 464 1.2% 158 1.5% 202 0.6% 77 0.1% 19 13,142
Umatilla 29.4% 7,085 63.0% 15,178 3.7% 885 1.7% 419 1.6% 393 0.5% 117 0.1% 31 24,108
Union 24.5% 2,877 67.9% 7,983 3.8% 441 1.4% 162 1.8% 209 0.5% 60 0.2% 24 11,756
Wallowa 27.0% 1,088 66.2% 2,668 3.6% 145 1.2% 47 1.5% 61 0.5% 19 0.1% 4 4,032
Wasco 40.5% 4,604 51.4% 5,841 3.8% 427 1.8% 203 1.6% 177 0.7% 85 0.2% 20 11,357
Washington 55.5% 137,886 39.2% 97,286 2.2% 5,535 1.7% 4,229 0.8% 2,010 0.5% 1,161 0.1% 372 248,479
Wheeler 19.3% 158 72.6% 594 4.6% 38 1.8% 15 1.2% 10 0.4% 3 0.0% 0 818
Yamhill 39.1% 17,931 53.3% 24,412 3.3% 1,503 1.9% 885 1.6% 721 0.6% 287 0.2% 81 45,820

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

  1. ↑ KOIN 6 News Staff (November 8, 2016). "Kate Brown wins 2-year term as Oregon governor". KOIN 6 News. Retrieved November 15, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  2. ↑ Borrud, Hillary (September 25, 2017). "Kate Brown announces she will seek re-election". The Oregonian. Retrieved September 26, 2017.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Radnovich, Connor (March 7, 2018). "17 people running for Oregon governor, the most crowded field in two decades". Statesman Journal. Retrieved March 8, 2018.
  4. ↑ Warner, Gary A. (August 7, 2017). "Political parties rev up for 2018 election". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 19, 2017.
  5. ↑ Riley, John (November 14, 2017). "Victory Fund endorses Rich Madeleno for governor". Metro Weekly. Retrieved February 7, 2018.
  6. ↑ Lee, Steve (October 5, 2017). "HRC endorses Oregon Gov. Kate Brown for re-election". LGBT Weekly. Archived from the original on October 6, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  7. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Oregon Governor Brown for Re-Election". Go Local PDX. October 5, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  8. ↑ "Oregon AFL-CIO Endorses Kate Brown for Governor". Oregon AFL-CIO. September 9, 2017. Archived from the original on October 15, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Warner, Gary A. (October 9, 2017). "Capitol roundup: Oregon House seats up for grabs". The Bulletin. Retrieved November 6, 2017.
  10. ↑ "Planned Parenthood Backs Oregon Governor's Election Bid". Oregon Patch. October 25, 2017. Retrieved November 6, 2017.
  11. 1 2 3 Warner, Gary A. (August 3, 2017). "Bend's Buehler running for governor". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 3, 2017.
  12. ↑ Achen, Paris (August 31, 2017). "A pro-Trump alternative in the governor's race?". Portland Tribune. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  13. ↑ "Bend businessman Sam Carpenter declares bid for governor". KTVZ. October 25, 2017. Retrieved October 28, 2017.
  14. ↑ Achen, Paris (October 25, 2017). "Bend businessman Sam Carpenter to run for governor". East Oregonian. Retrieved October 28, 2017.
  15. ↑ "Oregon Secretary Of State". secure.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved February 18, 2018.
  16. ↑ Hubbard, Saul (February 3, 2018). "Portland political conservative makes late entry into Oregon gubernatorial race". The Register-Guard. Archived from the original on February 3, 2018. Retrieved February 3, 2018.
  17. ↑ Withycombe, Claire (April 26, 2018). "GOP gubernatorial candidate drops out of race". Portland Tribune.
  18. ↑ Jaquiss, Nigel (June 26, 2017). "First Potential GOP Challenger For Gov. Kate Brown Surfaces". Willamette Week. Retrieved July 9, 2017.
  19. ↑ Borrud, Hillary (October 10, 2017). "Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer will not run for Oregon governor in 2018". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  20. 1 2 Achen, Paris (October 31, 2017). "Social conservatives seek governor's candidate". Portland Tribune. Retrieved November 6, 2017.
  21. ↑ "House Minority Leader Mike McLane Rules Out Run for Governor in 2018". wweek.com. September 6, 2017.
  22. ↑ Lehman, Chris (November 8, 2016). "Oregon Elects Kate Brown As Governor". Oregon Public Broadcasting. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
  23. ↑ Skelley, Geoffrey; Kondik, Kyle (April 20, 2017). "Competitive races abound as GOP plays defense in many open seats". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 6, 2017.
  24. ↑ Borrud, Hillary (August 23, 2017). "Secretary of State Dennis Richardson announces he will not run for governor". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  25. ↑ Warner, Gary A. (September 19, 2017). "Governor candidates at the Pendleton Round-Up". The Bulletin. Retrieved September 24, 2017.
  26. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Lawmakers Endorse Knute Buehler". Knute Buehler for Governor.
  27. ↑ "Letter: Hansell supports Buehler in GOP race". East Oregonian. April 27, 2018.
  28. ↑ Esquivel, Sal (August 8, 2017). "Esquivel: Knute Buehler is the Leader Oregon Needs". Oregon Catalyst. Retrieved November 6, 2017.
  29. ↑ "I'm proud to endorse fellow Roseburg native, friend and colleague Knute Buehler for Governor. He'll bring the..." Twitter. October 7, 2017.
  30. ↑ E. Werner Reschke. "I support Dr. Knute Buehler for Governor". Twitter.
  31. ↑ Warner, Gary A. (August 14, 2017). "Where were you in '82?". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 19, 2017.
  32. ↑ Knute Buehler. "Proud to have the endorsement of the Independent Party Co-Chair Rob Harris. We need new leadership to solve the big problems in our state. I will lead where Kate Brown has failed. #orpol #knuteforgov". Twitter.
  33. ↑ Knute Buehler. "Honored to have the support of a woman who has dedicated her life to making Oregon a better place and to call her a friend. #orpol #knuteforgov". Twitter.
  34. ↑ Borrud, Hillary (August 16, 2017). "Phil Knight contributes $500,000 to Republican gubernatorial candidate Knute Buehler". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 19, 2017.
  35. ↑ "NFIB Oregon PAC Endorses Knute Buehler for Governor". NFIB. August 13, 2018.
  36. 1 2 "Letter: Cattlemen's Association, Farm Bureau endorse Buehler". Capital Press. October 24, 2018.
  37. ↑ "Editorial: Vote Buehler in Republican primary". The Bulletin. April 23, 2018.
  38. ↑ "Editorial: Buehler the best choice for Oregon". The Bulletin. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 18, 2018.
  39. ↑ "WW's May 2018 Endorsements for Oregon Statewide Office". Willamette Week. April 25, 2018.
  40. ↑ "For governor: Brown, Buehler". The Register-Guard. April 28, 2018. Retrieved May 4, 2018.
  41. ↑ "Oregon needs experience, decisive leadership to improve: Editorial endorsements". The Oregonian. April 29, 2018. Retrieved May 4, 2018.
  42. ↑ "Editorial endorsement: Knute Buehler for Oregon governor". The Oregonian. October 14, 2018. Retrieved October 16, 2018.
  43. ↑ "Our opinion: Vote for Buehler in GOP governor primary". Portland Tribune. May 7, 2018. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  44. ↑ "Our Opinion: Buehler brings necessary tension". Portland Tribune. October 16, 2018. Retrieved October 16, 2018.
  45. ↑ McInally, Mike (October 17, 2018). "Editorial: Knute Buehler for governor of Oregon". Corvallis Gazette-Times.
  46. ↑ "Our View: Leadership needed for Oregon". The Daily Astorian. October 22, 2018.
  47. ↑ "Buehler for Governor". East Oregonian. October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  48. ↑ "Our View: Buehler would bring change as governor". Blue Mountain Eagle. October 23, 2018.
  49. ↑ "Bill Post endorses Capt. Greg Wooldridge for governor". Wooldridge For Governor. April 18, 2018. Archived from the original on April 28, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018.
  50. ↑ "ENDORSEMENT: Right to Life endorses Wooldridge". Wooldridge For Governor. March 8, 2018. Archived from the original on April 28, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018.
  51. ↑ Lars Larson Debate – YouTube
  52. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  53. ↑ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  54. ↑ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  55. ↑ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  56. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  57. ↑ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  58. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  59. ↑ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
  60. ↑ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  61. ↑ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  62. 1 2 Aaron Auer (C) and Nick Chen (L) with 1%
  63. ↑ Nick Chen (L) and Chris Henry (P) with 1%, Aaron Auer (C) with <1%, somebody else with 1%
  64. ↑ Nick Chen (L) with 2%, Aaron Aauer (C) with 1%
  65. ↑ Content Manager WebDrawer – 2018 General Election Official Results
Official campaign websites
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